033
FXUS63 KABR 170805
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
305 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

- 20 to 45% chance of precipitation Thursday night and Friday, with
the highest chances across central South Dakota.

- High temperature will range between normal to a few degrees below
normal Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

At 3 AM CDT, it`s basically a clear sky night. There are a few
indicators of patchy ground fog developing (surface obs and geocolor
RGB satellite imagery). Plus surface high pressure is over the
region, creating a calm or light/variable surface wind. Temperatures
have cooled into the 50s and 60s.

Between now and Thursday evening, the CWA is under north-northwest
flow, with pretty much any system`s source region being north
central Canada. At the surface, Canada-sourced surface high pressure
will be over the CWA today and tonight, parting ways on Thursday
into Minnesota/Wisconsin area. Winds should be relatively light
today/tonight, becoming more southeasterly at 10 to 20mph on
Thursday as low level return flow sets up. Cooler than normal and
dry best describes the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Not much of a change to the long term as Clusters indicate the
ongoing ridge over the western Conus and trough over the eastern
Conus. North of this trough, a deep mid level low will be over
eastern Canada and a low over the Northern Pacific, making a rex
block pattern. The Canadian low will dip south then east and over
the northern Atlantic next week with not much movement on the
Pacific low or ridge. This puts the Northern Plains in northwest
flow Friday, turning more northerly for the weekend, and
north/northeasterly early next week. Confidence is pretty high on
this ongoing pattern.

LREF ensembles indicate that within this flow, a weak shortwave will
move downstream of the ridge Friday with an area of low pressure
over the the lee side of Rockies to western Dakotas at 850mb. A weak
surface lee side low will setup over this area with a trough
extending through central to south central SD. This low will shift
southeast through Friday evening. This looks to bring some light
moisture with NBM pops of 20-45%, highest from north central to
south central SD, mainly Friday afternoon through the evening. The
moisture then shifts southeast, with the low, from 00-12Z Saturday,
with pops ranging from 30-45%, highest over central SD then
southeastern SD. CSU highlights a 5-15% prob of severe over south
central SD Friday, mainly south of a west to east boundary.
Afternoon instability and some shear could lead to a few strong to
severe storms. With a low to our south and stationary boundary to
our west/northwest and weak shortwave pulses Saturday, we could see
more moisture for the afternoon and evening with pops ranging from
20-30%. Sunday through early next week consists of 15-25% chance of
pops due to ongoing upper level flow along with diurnal heating and
afternoon instability. As of now, severe weather threat looks
minimal as nothing is highlighted by CSU for our CWA.

Highs will remain in the upper 70s to the upper 80s, highest around
and west of Mo River for Friday, and staying (or dropping a few
degrees) out here on Saturday. Upper 70s to the mid 80s temps for
Sunday/Monday with temps back into the upper 80s over the western
CWA Tuesday into the middle of next week. CPC 6-10 day outlooks
indicates near normal (36% prob) temps to slightly above normal (37%
prob)over the northwestern CWA next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Seeing hints of perhaps some ground fog developing at/in the
vicinity of KATY already this morning. Inserted a TEMPO for fog
there through sunrise this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast for all terminals through the TAF valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Dorn