722
FXUS63 KABR 151939
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
239 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will slide from northwest to southeast
across the region late tonight through Tuesday morning. The overall
severe weather threat is low, although areas along and south of US
Highway 212 are in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5). The main threat
will be 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter sized hail.
Precipitation should exit by Tuesday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are anticipated
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures may be able to recover to
something closer to normal Thursday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

No major changes to the expected overall pattern. An upper level
trough will slide out of northern Manitoba toward the great lakes
region. Meanwhile an upper ridge extends across the western CONUS.
Energy rotating around the base of the trough is expected to bring a
northwest to southeast moving round of showers and thunderstorms
during the overnight hours through Tuesday morning. At the same time
surface high pressure will also be building south, with drier low
level air to follow. Model dewpoints are only expected in the 50s to
near 60. As such, very limited instability across the region. The
NBM probs of SB CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg is near zero for much of the
CWA, and deterministic models MU CAPE is a few hundred J/KG, maybe
exceeding 1000 J/KG along the fringes of our southern CWA. If a
stronger storm or two were to get going it would be across this
region. This setup also doesn`t allow for a deep moisture profile,
and would expect pretty high based convection. This would lend more
of a wind threat for any stronger storm that can develop. Quite a
bit of uncertainty in coverage and timing, although almost all the
CAM solutions have precipitation exiting the region by Tuesday
afternoon.

Dry conditions are then expected through Wednesday. High pressure
and cold air advection will be the general trend. In fact, strong
indications (80-95% LREF probs) of 850 MB temperatures dropping
into the single digits by Wednesday morning across the far NE CWA.
Overall ensemble 2 meter temp spread is around 6 degrees or less
area wide, so stuck with the NBM guidance as the going forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Overall guidance from the deterministic and ensemble solutions in
this period continue to point toward a relatively dry and cooler
than normal to around normal temperature trend through the end of
the week into early next week. This period begins Wednesday with sfc
high pressure building southward across the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota. Dry and comfortable northerly low level flow will lead to
daytime dew point temperatures in the 50s and this will likely
persist through most of Thursday. A cold air advection will remain in
place, especially across our eastern zones on Wednesday, leading to
below normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. Even our western
and central zones should see below normal readings on Wednesday.

The center of the sfc high will slowly drift southeast of our area
on Thursday. This will setup low level return flow from the south
and begin to gradually modify the air mass back closer to normal
toward the end of the work week. Daytime temperature readings will
return to the 80s and dew point will climb just a bit back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper flow pattern will have us between an
upper trough across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS and a western
CONUS ridge. It`s possible a mid level disturbance or two could crest
over the ridge and track across our region late in the week into
early next week. This would give us some increased chances for
precipitation, however outside of Friday a mostly dry forecast will
be maintained.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. After 06Z a
system will track from northwest to southeast across the region.
This will bring scattered showers and isolated thunder through
Tuesday morning. Coverage, timing, and exact location of this
precipitation remain highly uncertain at this time, so it not yet
defined in the TAF forecast.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Serr