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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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657 FXUS65 KABQ 132352 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 552 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Hot temperatures will be the main story through Monday. Most lower elevation areas will reach into the mid to upper 90s while parts of southeast NM reach the low 100s. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are still possible however the overall coverage will be limited to the high terrain and nearby highlands through Monday. Moisture will increase Tuesday with a dramatic increase in storm coverage through the rest of next week. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, small hail, lightning strikes, and flash flooding are possible just about anywhere. High temperatures will cool closer to normal with this wetter pattern next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monsoon high center just north of the Four Corners this afternoon is progged to continue to sink slightly southward over far northwest NM area Sunday afternoon. Dry air aloft will continue to be pulled into the clockwise circulation from the east and southeast resulting in another relatively paltry crop of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening over the northwest third to half of NM. Locations south of I-40 are forecast to remain dry Sunday and Sunday night. Beginning late day Sunday into Sunday night, Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) and global models agree that the monsoon high will get shoved slightly southward by a northern stream trough dropping into the Northern Plains. It`s this trough that will send a backdoor surface front and Gulf moisture underneath the monsoon high later in the week. High temperatures on Sunday will continue to trend hotter with a few spots like Farmington, Aztec and Bloomfield approaching the century mark. ABQ metro could also get close to 100F Sunday afternoon, especially if the monsoon high drifts slightly farther south. Decided to let the mid shift have one more look given current forecast temperatures are marginal for a heat advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A 594dm H5 ridge near northern NM Monday will drift west and gradually strengthen each day to 598dm near Las Vegas, NV by Friday. A couple upper level waves will slide southeast off the Front Range in this pattern next week and allow a series of moist, convectively-aided backdoor surface boundaries to move southwest into eastern NM. The coverage of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will begin to increase again Monday then much more Tuesday through Friday. PWs trend above normal during this period with values ranging from 0.90" across northwestern NM to near 1.5" across southeast NM. Steering flow will be generally north/south around 10-20 mph along the central mt chain with nearly stationary storms possible across western NM. Flash Flood Watches are a near certainty for burn scar areas early next week then over a larger area by midweek as daily rounds of heavy rainfall saturate soils in favored storm locations. 7-day WPC QPF amounts range from 1-2" in the higher terrain and nearby highlands with 0.25"-0.75" over the rest of the lower terrain and eastern NM. As is typical with monsoon season storms, some areas will pick up much higher totals by the end of the week while others pick up almost nothing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist early this evening across north central NM with isolated activity across western NM. Much of this activity is expected to diminish around sunset, but brief MVFR cigs/vsbys and gusts near 35kt will be possible with the heavier activity until then. A quiet night is expected, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for Sunday. Similar to today, storms will favor northern and western NM. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty and erratic outflows will be possible. Storms are expected to develop around 18-19Z and storm motion will be slow and erratic for storms across northern NM, and will tend to move toward the west at 5-10kt for storms across the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monsoon high center will remain near the Four Corners and northern NM Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will trend several degrees hotter both days as a result, before trending cooler during the remainder of the week. The cooling will come in the form of increasing low and mid level monsoon moisture. Shower and thunderstorms will trend up over the northeast quarter of NM starting Monday in response to the flow just above mountain top level shifting to northwesterly. Tuesday through Saturday will feature a very active monsoon period, and with plenty of moisture to work with, numerous to widespread strong thunderstorms will form over most mountain ranges each afternoon and evening producing locally very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding. The monsoon high`s position over AZ and UT this upcoming week will lead to storm motions that will be to the south and southwest ranging from 15 to 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 100 66 99 / 10 10 20 5 Dulce........................... 50 94 51 94 / 20 30 30 40 Cuba............................ 59 92 59 92 / 30 20 40 30 Gallup.......................... 55 95 55 93 / 30 30 30 30 El Morro........................ 51 89 57 89 / 40 30 50 50 Grants.......................... 57 93 59 92 / 30 30 40 50 Quemado......................... 57 91 58 90 / 30 40 60 70 Magdalena....................... 63 91 63 92 / 0 10 10 40 Datil........................... 57 89 58 89 / 5 30 30 60 Reserve......................... 55 96 55 95 / 20 50 50 80 Glenwood........................ 64 99 65 99 / 20 50 40 80 Chama........................... 51 87 52 86 / 20 40 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 64 89 64 89 / 20 30 20 50 Pecos........................... 60 90 60 90 / 30 20 20 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 89 49 88 / 20 40 20 70 Red River....................... 49 82 50 78 / 20 40 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 38 84 40 82 / 10 30 10 60 Taos............................ 53 92 54 92 / 20 20 20 40 Mora............................ 53 88 54 87 / 30 30 10 50 Espanola........................ 61 97 62 97 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 63 91 64 91 / 30 20 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 94 62 94 / 30 10 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 97 65 97 / 10 10 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 98 66 99 / 10 5 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 100 63 100 / 10 0 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 99 65 99 / 10 0 20 10 Belen........................... 65 99 62 99 / 5 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 64 100 63 100 / 10 5 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 62 100 61 99 / 10 0 20 10 Corrales........................ 65 100 64 100 / 10 5 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 65 100 63 99 / 5 0 20 10 Placitas........................ 63 96 63 96 / 20 10 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 63 99 64 99 / 10 5 20 10 Socorro......................... 67 101 67 101 / 0 5 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 90 63 91 / 10 10 20 30 Tijeras......................... 58 93 60 95 / 10 10 20 30 Edgewood........................ 54 93 56 94 / 10 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 94 54 94 / 10 5 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 57 90 59 90 / 5 5 10 20 Mountainair..................... 55 92 58 92 / 5 5 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 55 92 59 92 / 0 5 5 30 Carrizozo....................... 62 95 65 94 / 0 5 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 56 86 58 86 / 0 10 0 30 Capulin......................... 60 90 61 89 / 20 10 0 30 Raton........................... 58 95 59 93 / 20 10 0 30 Springer........................ 58 95 59 94 / 30 10 0 30 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 58 89 / 20 10 10 30 Clayton......................... 67 98 68 98 / 5 5 0 5 Roy............................. 62 93 63 92 / 10 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 66 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 63 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 65 100 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 66 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 57 91 59 92 / 0 5 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...34