493
FXUS65 KABQ 140556 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Hot temperatures will be the main story through Monday. Most lower
elevation areas will reach into the mid to upper 90s while parts of
southeast NM reach the low 100s. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms
are still possible however the overall coverage will be limited to
the high terrain and nearby highlands through Monday. Moisture will
increase Tuesday with a dramatic increase in storm coverage through
the rest of next week. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, small
hail, lightning strikes, and flash flooding are possible just about
anywhere. High temperatures will cool closer to normal with this
wetter pattern next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monsoon high center just north of the Four Corners this afternoon
is progged to continue to sink slightly southward over far
northwest NM area Sunday afternoon. Dry air aloft will continue to
be pulled into the clockwise circulation from the east and
southeast resulting in another relatively paltry crop of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening over the
northwest third to half of NM. Locations south of I-40 are
forecast to remain dry Sunday and Sunday night. Beginning late day
Sunday into Sunday night, Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) and
global models agree that the monsoon high will get shoved slightly
southward by a northern stream trough dropping into the Northern
Plains. It`s this trough that will send a backdoor surface front
and Gulf moisture underneath the monsoon high later in the week.
High temperatures on Sunday will continue to trend hotter with a
few spots like Farmington, Aztec and Bloomfield approaching the
century mark. ABQ metro could also get close to 100F Sunday
afternoon, especially if the monsoon high drifts slightly farther
south. Decided to let the mid shift have one more look given
current forecast temperatures are marginal for a heat advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A 594dm H5 ridge near northern NM Monday will drift west and
gradually strengthen each day to 598dm near Las Vegas, NV by
Friday. A couple upper level waves will slide southeast off the
Front Range in this pattern next week and allow a series of moist,
convectively-aided backdoor surface boundaries to move southwest
into eastern NM. The coverage of showers and storms with locally
heavy rainfall will begin to increase again Monday then much more
Tuesday through Friday. PWs trend above normal during this period
with values ranging from 0.90" across northwestern NM to near 1.5"
across southeast NM. Steering flow will be generally north/south
around 10-20 mph along the central mt chain with nearly stationary
storms possible across western NM. Flash Flood Watches are a near
certainty for burn scar areas early next week then over a larger
area by midweek as daily rounds of heavy rainfall saturate soils
in favored storm locations. 7-day WPC QPF amounts range from 1-2"
in the higher terrain and nearby highlands with 0.25"-0.75" over
the rest of the lower terrain and eastern NM. As is typical with
monsoon season storms, some areas will pick up much higher totals
by the end of the week while others pick up almost nothing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western
and north central areas on Sunday. Isolated cells are forecast
over central areas in the early evening as well, but the
probability of them hitting the AEG or ABQ aerodromes is low.
Atmospheric moisture is somewhat limited, so the wetting
footprints of storms should be pretty small with a fair amount of
gusty virga showers around. Microbursts will be capable of brief,
localized, and erratic wind gusts over 40 KT near thunderstorms
and virga showers. In addition, high temperatures a few to around
10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will make density altitude an
important consideration for aviation operations near complex
terrain this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monsoon high center will remain near the Four Corners and northern
NM Sunday and Monday. High temperatures will trend several degrees
hotter both days as a result, before trending cooler during the
remainder of the week. The cooling will come in the form of
increasing low and mid level monsoon moisture. Shower and
thunderstorms will trend up over the northeast quarter of NM
starting Monday in response to the flow just above mountain top
level shifting to northwesterly. Tuesday through Saturday will
feature a very active monsoon period, and with plenty of moisture to
work with, numerous to widespread strong thunderstorms will form
over most mountain ranges each afternoon and evening producing
locally very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.
The monsoon high`s position over AZ and UT this upcoming week will
lead to storm motions that will be to the south and southwest
ranging from 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64 100  66  99 /  10  10  20   5
Dulce...........................  50  94  51  94 /  20  30  30  40
Cuba............................  59  92  59  92 /  30  20  40  30
Gallup..........................  55  95  55  93 /  30  30  30  30
El Morro........................  51  89  57  89 /  40  30  50  50
Grants..........................  57  93  59  92 /  30  30  40  50
Quemado.........................  57  91  58  90 /  30  40  60  70
Magdalena.......................  63  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  40
Datil...........................  57  89  58  89 /   5  30  30  60
Reserve.........................  55  96  55  95 /  20  50  50  80
Glenwood........................  64  99  65  99 /  20  50  40  80
Chama...........................  51  87  52  86 /  20  40  30  60
Los Alamos......................  64  89  64  89 /  20  30  20  50
Pecos...........................  60  90  60  90 /  30  20  20  50
Cerro/Questa....................  48  89  49  88 /  20  40  20  70
Red River.......................  49  82  50  78 /  20  40  20  70
Angel Fire......................  38  84  40  82 /  10  30  10  60
Taos............................  53  92  54  92 /  20  20  20  40
Mora............................  53  88  54  87 /  30  30  10  50
Espanola........................  61  97  62  97 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  63  91  64  91 /  30  20  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  63  94  62  94 /  30  10  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  97  65  97 /  10  10  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  98  66  99 /  10   5  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  63 100  63 100 /  10   0  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  99  65  99 /  10   0  20  10
Belen...........................  65  99  62  99 /   5   5  10  10
Bernalillo......................  64 100  63 100 /  10   5  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  62 100  61  99 /  10   0  20  10
Corrales........................  65 100  64 100 /  10   5  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  65 100  63  99 /   5   0  20  10
Placitas........................  63  96  63  96 /  20  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  63  99  64  99 /  10   5  20  10
Socorro.........................  67 101  67 101 /   0   5   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  90  63  91 /  10  10  20  30
Tijeras.........................  58  93  60  95 /  10  10  20  30
Edgewood........................  54  93  56  94 /  10  10  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  94  54  94 /  10   5  10  20
Clines Corners..................  57  90  59  90 /   5   5  10  20
Mountainair.....................  55  92  58  92 /   5   5  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  55  92  59  92 /   0   5   5  30
Carrizozo.......................  62  95  65  94 /   0   5   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  56  86  58  86 /   0  10   0  30
Capulin.........................  60  90  61  89 /  20  10   0  30
Raton...........................  58  95  59  93 /  20  10   0  30
Springer........................  58  95  59  94 /  30  10   0  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  89  58  89 /  20  10  10  30
Clayton.........................  67  98  68  98 /   5   5   0   5
Roy.............................  62  93  63  92 /  10   5   0  10
Conchas.........................  66 100  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  96  64  95 /   0   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  65 100  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  97  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  97  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  98  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 100  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  94  63  95 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  57  91  59  92 /   0   5   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44