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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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668 FXUS65 KABQ 082130 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 330 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the remainder of the week and the coming weekend. Storms will favor areas along and east of the continental divide through Wednesday evening, then they will favor locations along and west of the central mountain chain during the latter half of the week and the coming weekend. The greatest risk for mainly burn scar flash flooding looks to occur Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The upper high continues to bake central and southern CA while the northern plains trough slowly shifts eastward, and Beryl has made landfall into eastern TX. This has kept northwesterly flow aloft over NM with a shortwave trough sliding into north central and northeastern areas of the state. At the surface, a drastic change occurred over central and eastern areas of NM with last nights backdoor front, as higher dewpoints have spilled in with earlier low stratus and now a much cooler temperature regime. The added moisture, upslope flow (on east and southeast faces) and shortwave energy aloft is kicking off thunderstorms over the northern mountains and even a few in the far northeast plains. The prominent directional shear will bring increasing opportunities for strong to severe cells through the remainder of the afternoon as cells drift south southeastward. This will likely yield storms into the Las Vegas, Santa Fe, Albuquerque and some central highland areas by late afternoon and early evening. These cells would then trail off and largely diminish before midnight. Not much shift or change is expected with the placement or strength of the upper high on Tuesday, and despite the shortwave trough having exited, a more robust crop of storms is expected. The central mountain chain will not have the expansive low clouds that it had today, and this will allow quicker destabilization to occur by early Tuesday afternoon. PWATs will remain highest along and east of the central mountain chain, but the areas near and just east of the Continental Divide will also exhibit relatively higher values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch. Surface winds will have veered southerly in many locations and this will keep a large directional swing with height with sufficient shear for a few strong to severe cells. While no individual CAMs show a direct hit for the HPCC scar, the numerous cells around the Sangres has prompted an expansion of the Flood Watch to these zones for Tuesday. Storms will roll off of the high terrain and into adjacent lower elevations Tuesday evening with outflow boundary collisions leading to new cells, perhaps well into the early morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast. The upper high will migrate from over NV Wednesday to over CO by Sunday. As a result, storms will favor the continental divide eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening, then the central mountain chain westward for the remainder of the week. At this time, the greatest risk for mainly burn scar flash flooding looks to occur Wednesday as storms generally move from north to south over the central mountain chain. Storms will take on a greater westerly component of motion with each day thereafter, as the high pressure system gradually moves from west northwest to north of NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A moist front overtook eastern and central New Mexico last night, and the low clouds associated with it are slowly eroding away, although MVFR ceilings may linger in some central areas around KSRR, KCQC, K0E0 through the mid afternoon. The gusty east canyon winds in KABQ brought in by the front are also decreasing in speed, however gusts to 25 to 30 kt will be possible through the day before increasing for a while in the evening. Thunderstorms will continue to develop over the northern mountains and drift southward into central areas through the early evening. The need for an Airport Weather Warning for KABQ will be monitored, as gusts may reach 35 kt this evening. Showers and a few less intense thunderstorms are also possible in the eastern plains, mainly focused in northeastern to east central areas through the evening. The usual aviation hazards of hail, gust downburst winds and heavy downpours will accompany stronger storms, especially in north central to central areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The driest areas of the state are now the far northwestern portions of NM and far west central areas where higher dewpoints from last nights front have not yet invaded. A stronger east to west push is forecast this evening as storms roll toward the middle Rio Grande valley where some gusty east winds are expected. This east to west push could offer some temporary relief to far northwest and west central zones in the form of higher dewpoints and better humidity recovery into Tuesday morning, but this moisture will likely mix out rather quickly through Tuesday afternoon with afternoon humidity plummeting to 15 percent or less there. This will place the best chances for storms along the eastern faces of the Continental Divide eastward over the central mountain chain and to a lesser extent over the eastern plains. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. A very similar pattern is expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday with soaking rainfall gradually filling in over more areas east of the Continental Divide. Moisture will gradually become rerouted differently into Friday and the upcoming weekend as high pressure moves north of NM, likely leading to fewer storms. Other than tonights gust east canyon winds (which will be aided by thunderstorms), prevailing winds will tend to be light to moderate in speed, and any wind concerns will come from short-lived thunderstorm outflows. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 87 46 89 / 20 30 10 30 Cuba............................ 51 86 52 87 / 30 30 20 30 Gallup.......................... 50 91 51 93 / 0 10 5 5 El Morro........................ 50 85 51 87 / 20 20 20 20 Grants.......................... 52 87 53 90 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 52 88 53 90 / 10 30 30 40 Magdalena....................... 57 84 60 87 / 30 50 40 60 Datil........................... 53 84 56 86 / 20 50 30 50 Reserve......................... 52 91 52 95 / 5 50 30 60 Glenwood........................ 66 95 63 97 / 10 60 40 70 Chama........................... 44 79 46 81 / 40 50 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 55 79 58 82 / 40 60 30 70 Pecos........................... 52 81 55 82 / 40 60 40 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 77 41 82 / 40 70 30 80 Red River....................... 41 70 43 71 / 40 70 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 37 72 39 74 / 40 70 30 80 Taos............................ 46 80 48 84 / 40 60 30 60 Mora............................ 46 76 49 77 / 40 70 40 80 Espanola........................ 54 87 57 90 / 40 50 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 55 81 58 84 / 40 60 50 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 84 56 87 / 30 40 40 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 89 62 92 / 30 30 40 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 91 63 93 / 30 20 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 93 58 95 / 30 20 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 91 64 94 / 30 20 30 30 Belen........................... 58 93 59 95 / 20 20 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 58 92 62 95 / 30 20 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 55 92 57 95 / 20 20 30 30 Corrales........................ 59 92 62 95 / 30 20 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 57 93 59 95 / 20 20 30 30 Placitas........................ 58 87 61 90 / 30 30 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 60 91 63 94 / 30 20 30 30 Socorro......................... 62 93 64 96 / 20 40 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 83 57 84 / 20 30 30 60 Tijeras......................... 55 86 57 87 / 20 30 30 60 Edgewood........................ 52 85 54 87 / 30 30 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 86 52 87 / 30 40 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 50 80 53 79 / 40 60 40 70 Mountainair..................... 51 85 53 85 / 20 40 40 70 Gran Quivira.................... 52 85 54 85 / 20 50 40 80 Carrizozo....................... 60 87 61 88 / 20 60 40 80 Ruidoso......................... 54 77 53 78 / 30 80 40 90 Capulin......................... 49 77 52 79 / 20 50 20 40 Raton........................... 50 81 53 83 / 20 60 20 40 Springer........................ 51 83 54 84 / 20 60 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 77 52 77 / 30 60 40 80 Clayton......................... 57 85 59 87 / 10 20 10 20 Roy............................. 52 80 56 82 / 30 50 30 50 Conchas......................... 57 88 61 89 / 20 40 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 56 85 59 85 / 30 40 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 57 88 61 89 / 20 20 30 30 Clovis.......................... 61 87 63 88 / 20 20 30 40 Portales........................ 61 88 63 89 / 20 20 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 60 88 63 89 / 30 20 30 40 Roswell......................... 67 92 69 94 / 30 20 30 40 Picacho......................... 59 85 62 87 / 30 60 40 70 Elk............................. 56 82 57 84 / 40 70 40 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...52