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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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184 FXUS65 KABQ 082324 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 524 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the remainder of the week and the coming weekend. Storms will favor areas along and east of the continental divide through Wednesday evening, then they will favor locations along and west of the central mountain chain during the latter half of the week and the coming weekend. The greatest risk for mainly burn scar flash flooding looks to occur Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The upper high continues to bake central and southern CA while the northern plains trough slowly shifts eastward, and Beryl has made landfall into eastern TX. This has kept northwesterly flow aloft over NM with a shortwave trough sliding into north central and northeastern areas of the state. At the surface, a drastic change occurred over central and eastern areas of NM with last nights backdoor front, as higher dewpoints have spilled in with earlier low stratus and now a much cooler temperature regime. The added moisture, upslope flow (on east and southeast faces) and shortwave energy aloft is kicking off thunderstorms over the northern mountains and even a few in the far northeast plains. The prominent directional shear will bring increasing opportunities for strong to severe cells through the remainder of the afternoon as cells drift south southeastward. This will likely yield storms into the Las Vegas, Santa Fe, Albuquerque and some central highland areas by late afternoon and early evening. These cells would then trail off and largely diminish before midnight. Not much shift or change is expected with the placement or strength of the upper high on Tuesday, and despite the shortwave trough having exited, a more robust crop of storms is expected. The central mountain chain will not have the expansive low clouds that it had today, and this will allow quicker destabilization to occur by early Tuesday afternoon. PWATs will remain highest along and east of the central mountain chain, but the areas near and just east of the Continental Divide will also exhibit relatively higher values of 0.8 to 1.0 inch. Surface winds will have veered southerly in many locations and this will keep a large directional swing with height with sufficient shear for a few strong to severe cells. While no individual CAMs show a direct hit for the HPCC scar, the numerous cells around the Sangres has prompted an expansion of the Flood Watch to these zones for Tuesday. Storms will roll off of the high terrain and into adjacent lower elevations Tuesday evening with outflow boundary collisions leading to new cells, perhaps well into the early morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast. The upper high will migrate from over NV Wednesday to over CO by Sunday. As a result, storms will favor the continental divide eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening, then the central mountain chain westward for the remainder of the week. At this time, the greatest risk for mainly burn scar flash flooding looks to occur Wednesday as storms generally move from north to south over the central mountain chain. Storms will take on a greater westerly component of motion with each day thereafter, as the high pressure system gradually moves from west northwest to north of NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Thunderstorms developed earlier over the northern mountains and are drifting southward into central areas early this evening with storms expected to produce impacts near KAEG, KABQ, K0E0 and KCQC through 09/0200UTC. The need for an Airport Weather Warning for KABQ will be monitored, as gusts may reach 35 kt this evening even after thunderstorms move out of the area. Showers and a few less intense thunderstorms may redevelop over the northern mountains, but confidence is low that these will impact KSAF or KLVS through the evening. The usual aviation hazards of hail, gusty downburst winds and heavy downpours will accompany stronger storms, especially in central areas. Most of the storm activity is expected to come to an end before midnight, but an isolated cell or two may survive south of Interstate 40. More numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain between the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain on Tuesday afternoon, filling into lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico through early Tuesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The driest areas of the state are now the far northwestern portions of NM and far west central areas where higher dewpoints from last nights front have not yet invaded. A stronger east to west push is forecast this evening as storms roll toward the middle Rio Grande valley where some gusty east winds are expected. This east to west push could offer some temporary relief to far northwest and west central zones in the form of higher dewpoints and better humidity recovery into Tuesday morning, but this moisture will likely mix out rather quickly through Tuesday afternoon with afternoon humidity plummeting to 15 percent or less there. This will place the best chances for storms along the eastern faces of the Continental Divide eastward over the central mountain chain and to a lesser extent over the eastern plains. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. A very similar pattern is expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday with soaking rainfall gradually filling in over more areas east of the Continental Divide. Moisture will gradually become rerouted differently into Friday and the upcoming weekend as high pressure moves north of NM, likely leading to fewer storms. Other than tonights gust east canyon winds (which will be aided by thunderstorms), prevailing winds will tend to be light to moderate in speed, and any wind concerns will come from short-lived thunderstorm outflows. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 87 46 89 / 20 30 10 30 Cuba............................ 51 86 52 87 / 30 30 20 30 Gallup.......................... 50 91 51 93 / 0 10 5 5 El Morro........................ 50 85 51 87 / 20 20 20 20 Grants.......................... 52 87 53 90 / 20 20 20 20 Quemado......................... 52 88 53 90 / 10 30 30 40 Magdalena....................... 57 84 60 87 / 30 50 40 60 Datil........................... 53 84 56 86 / 20 50 30 50 Reserve......................... 52 91 52 95 / 5 50 30 60 Glenwood........................ 66 95 63 97 / 10 60 40 70 Chama........................... 44 79 46 81 / 40 50 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 55 79 58 82 / 40 60 30 70 Pecos........................... 52 81 55 82 / 40 60 40 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 77 41 82 / 40 70 30 80 Red River....................... 41 70 43 71 / 40 70 30 80 Angel Fire...................... 37 72 39 74 / 40 70 30 80 Taos............................ 46 80 48 84 / 40 60 30 60 Mora............................ 46 76 49 77 / 40 70 40 80 Espanola........................ 54 87 57 90 / 40 50 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 55 81 58 84 / 40 60 50 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 53 84 56 87 / 30 40 40 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 89 62 92 / 30 30 40 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 91 63 93 / 30 20 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 93 58 95 / 30 20 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 91 64 94 / 30 20 30 30 Belen........................... 58 93 59 95 / 20 20 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 58 92 62 95 / 30 20 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 55 92 57 95 / 20 20 30 30 Corrales........................ 59 92 62 95 / 30 20 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 57 93 59 95 / 20 20 30 30 Placitas........................ 58 87 61 90 / 30 30 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 60 91 63 94 / 30 20 30 30 Socorro......................... 62 93 64 96 / 20 40 30 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 83 57 84 / 20 30 30 60 Tijeras......................... 55 86 57 87 / 20 30 30 60 Edgewood........................ 52 85 54 87 / 30 30 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 86 52 87 / 30 40 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 50 80 53 79 / 40 60 40 70 Mountainair..................... 51 85 53 85 / 20 40 40 70 Gran Quivira.................... 52 85 54 85 / 20 50 40 80 Carrizozo....................... 60 87 61 88 / 20 60 40 80 Ruidoso......................... 54 77 53 78 / 30 80 40 90 Capulin......................... 49 77 52 79 / 20 50 20 40 Raton........................... 50 81 53 83 / 20 60 20 40 Springer........................ 51 83 54 84 / 20 60 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 77 52 77 / 30 60 40 80 Clayton......................... 57 85 59 87 / 10 20 10 20 Roy............................. 52 80 56 82 / 30 50 30 50 Conchas......................... 57 88 61 89 / 20 40 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 56 85 59 85 / 30 40 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 57 88 61 89 / 20 20 30 30 Clovis.......................... 61 87 63 88 / 20 20 30 40 Portales........................ 61 88 63 89 / 20 20 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 60 88 63 89 / 30 20 30 40 Roswell......................... 67 92 69 94 / 30 20 30 40 Picacho......................... 59 85 62 87 / 30 60 40 70 Elk............................. 56 82 57 84 / 40 70 40 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...52