764
FXUS65 KABQ 100521 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain
of southwestern and central New Mexico this afternoon. This
activity will continue to drift southeastward, expanding into some
nearby highlands and northeastern plains areas this evening before
dying. Storms will be more numerous over the central mountain
chain of New Mexico on Wednesday with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall, and perhaps some flash flooding. Scattered storms
will also be possible Wednesday over portions of the eastern
plains and even the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. A
very similar pattern is then expected on Thursday with storms
again developing over the higher terrain, mainly from the
Continental Divide and over the central mountain chain of New
Mexico and eventually filling into some nearby areas. Less storms
are forecast for Friday into the weekend, but scattered storms
will still be possible with activity shifting a bit farther west.
Temperatures will generally remain seasonable and within a few
degrees of normal for mid July.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Convective initiation seems to have jived with higher resolution
CAMs thus far this afternoon. With the upper high over southern CA
and southern NV, storm motion has been toward the south
southeast, so cells will likely fill in over the northeast
highlands and northeastern plains as well as some other nearby
locations through the early evening. Any kind of convectively-
induced east gap wind should be fairly short-lived for just a
couple to a few hours this evening, and storms are expected to
largely diminish by or shortly after midnight.

The stage will be set for a very active day on Wednesday, mainly
across the central mountain chain which will rest on the western
fringe of deeper moisture (0.9 to 1.1 inch PWATs). Storms will
drift more due southward Wednesday as the upper high will have
settled atop the Great Basin, and this parallel motion to the
central mountain chain could lead to training, or cells
repetitively moving over the same location which would enhance the
flash flood risk. The previously issued Flood Watch was expanded
to the Sandia/Manzano mountains for Wednesday, but burn scars will
of course remain the most vulnerable areas. Storms could also
expand secondarily into the east central to southeastern plains
late Wednesday. Prevailing surface winds will tend to largely
start out from the south as storms initialize, so this contrast
with the northerly winds aloft will keep a threat for strong to
severe cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The upper high will not move much, just slightly northeastward,
still remaining stout at around 597 decameters over the Great
Basin on Thursday. This will not alter the steering flow much, but
cells will likely take on a heading of around 190-200. This could
potentially open the door for the middle Rio Grande valley as
cells move off of the Jemez, and additional storms will also
develop a bit farther west in the Gila and near the divide as
moisture inches that way.

Into Friday and the weekend, a notable downtrend in convection is
modeled as the monsoon high repositions into Colorado. This will
redistribute the moisture, diffusely carrying slightly higher
PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch into western zones. Much of the central
mountain chain would be expected to undergo a reduction in storms
too. The high begins to become more ill-defined with the potential
for an easterly tropical wave to move into Mexico, perhaps as far
north as the borderland by late Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MVFR conditions in/near current diminishing storms
and again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Central and eastern TAF
sites are more likely to be impacted, with KSAF having the highest
probabilities. Storms east of the central mountain chain will
likely create gusty east canyon winds at KABQ late Wednesday
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Higher humidity graced the northwestern and west central zones
this morning as easterly winds brought in higher dewpoints.
However, this moisture quickly mixed back to the east this
afternoon with humidity already plummeting to 10 to 15 percent.
Storms have initiated over the high terrain areas this afternoon
and are expected to fill in over the northeast highlands and
northeastern plains through the evening. A fairly similar pattern
is expected to continue on Wednesday and Thursday with soaking
rainfall gradually filling in over more areas east of the
Continental Divide. The central mountain chain looks to be
especially active with storms and the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding each day, but particularly on
Wednesday. The position of high pressure in the upper levels of
the atmosphere will shift on Friday and into the upcoming weekend,
causing moisture to seep westward while turning more diffuse. This
will lead to fewer storms that will tend to favor western high
terrain areas into the weekend. Prevailing winds will generally be
light to moderate in speed, but short-lived thunderstorm outflows
could quickly disrupt this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  95  63  95 /   0   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  47  88  47  87 /  20  40  30  40
Cuba............................  53  87  55  87 /  10  30  30  40
Gallup..........................  50  93  54  92 /   0   0   5  30
El Morro........................  50  87  55  85 /  10  10  20  50
Grants..........................  54  90  56  88 /  10  20  20  40
Quemado.........................  54  90  55  89 /  10  20  20  60
Magdalena.......................  60  88  61  87 /  30  50  30  60
Datil...........................  54  87  55  85 /  20  40  30  60
Reserve.........................  52  94  52  92 /  20  40  20  70
Glenwood........................  64  97  64  95 /  30  40  30  70
Chama...........................  46  79  46  80 /  40  60  40  60
Los Alamos......................  58  82  59  82 /  30  60  30  60
Pecos...........................  55  81  55  82 /  40  70  40  60
Cerro/Questa....................  43  80  44  81 /  40  70  30  60
Red River.......................  43  70  44  71 /  40  70  30  60
Angel Fire......................  40  73  40  75 /  40  70  30  60
Taos............................  48  84  49  85 /  40  50  30  50
Mora............................  49  76  49  78 /  40  70  30  60
Espanola........................  56  89  57  90 /  40  40  30  40
Santa Fe........................  58  83  59  83 /  40  70  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  87  58  87 /  30  50  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  90  63  90 /  20  50  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  92  66  92 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  94  58  94 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  93  65  92 /  20  20  20  30
Belen...........................  62  95  60  94 /  20  30  20  30
Bernalillo......................  62  93  62  93 /  20  30  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  59  94  57  93 /  20  30  30  30
Corrales........................  61  93  62  93 /  20  30  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  60  94  59  93 /  20  30  20  30
Placitas........................  61  89  61  89 /  20  40  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  63  92  64  92 /  20  30  20  30
Socorro.........................  64  96  65  95 /  20  40  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  84  58  84 /  20  50  30  50
Tijeras.........................  59  87  59  86 /  20  50  30  50
Edgewood........................  56  85  55  86 /  20  60  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  87  52  87 /  30  60  30  40
Clines Corners..................  53  81  54  81 /  30  70  30  50
Mountainair.....................  55  86  55  85 /  30  60  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  56  86  55  85 /  30  70  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  63  88  62  86 /  40  80  40  60
Ruidoso.........................  52  79  53  78 /  40  80  50  60
Capulin.........................  50  80  52  82 /  40  40  10  30
Raton...........................  52  84  53  87 /  40  40  20  30
Springer........................  53  85  54  87 /  40  50  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  52  78  52  80 /  40  60  30  50
Clayton.........................  59  88  61  90 /  30  20  10  10
Roy.............................  56  83  57  84 /  50  50  30  20
Conchas.........................  61  89  62  91 /  60  40  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  60  87  60  87 /  60  50  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  61  91  62  92 /  60  30  30  10
Clovis..........................  63  90  64  90 /  50  50  40  20
Portales........................  64  90  65  91 /  50  50  40  20
Fort Sumner.....................  64  91  64  91 /  60  50  40  20
Roswell.........................  70  95  68  94 /  30  50  30  30
Picacho.........................  62  87  61  87 /  30  70  40  50
Elk.............................  58  84  58  83 /  30  80  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
for NMZ214-215-221>224-226-229-239-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11