083
FXUS65 KABQ 101739 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An active monsoon day is expected today with showers and storms
favoring the northern mountains and central mountain chain. Training
of storms from north to south is expected across the central
mountain chain and this combined with high rainfall rates will
result in areas of flash flooding, especially over recent burn
scars. Diurnal showers and storms favor the northern, central and
southwest mountains Thursday moving into surrounding lower
elevations in the evening. The monsoon high shifts to Utah Friday
and then to Colorado over the weekend, shifting the higher moisture
and diurnal shower and storm chances to western areas and Arizona.
The monsoon high then breaks down and shifts east of the Rockies
next week. This combined with disturbances moving north from Mexico
will increase shower and storm chances areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

At 00Z, a 597dam 500mb high was located southeast of Las Vegas NV,
with northwest flow aloft over NM. The KABQ 00Z upper air sounding
showed a PWAT of only 0.69", but that is forecast to trend up closer
to normal through Thursday as the upper high drifts north a tad and
flow aloft changes to north-northeast which will allow moisture over
eastern NM to work westward. In the meantime, the latest water vapor
satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving south across CO,
which will likely enhance storm coverage/intensity as it continues
south over NM this afternoon/evening. The latest CAMs are in
agreement in showing potential hits to our most sensitive burn scars
this afternoon and an expansion of coverage from the
Sandias/Manzanos to the central highlands where a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect this afternoon through this evening. Today will be a
high threat level day for the Sacramento Complex, especially
considering yesterday`s catastrophic flooding and even less rainfall
required to create major problems in/near Ruidoso and surrounding
communities. Convection east of the Sandias/Manzanos will likely
send outflow into the Albuquerque Metro late this afternoon/evening,
creating a strong/gusty east canyon wind. Similar setup for
Thursday, but with storms moving west of south and improved coverage
across western NM given the uptick in PWATs. Thursday is looking
like a relative lower threat day for the HPCC and Sacramento Complex
scars given the CAMs showing initiation on the periphery of the
scars and storm motion toward the west or southwest, taking storms
off of the higher terrain and away from the scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Any showers and storms across central and western NM Thursday
evening quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating with clearing skies and seasonable temperatures overnight.
The center of the 598 dam monsoon high nudges east to Utah on
Friday. Diurnal showers and storms will be much lower in coverage
and favor north central and western NM due to mid level moisture
redistributing here and with drier mid levels across eastern NM.
Upper level flow over NM will be similar to Thursday with storms
moving from northeast to southwest. Similar conditions expected for
the weekend with the 598 to 599 dam monsoon high center shifting to
the Utah/Colorado border Saturday and then over the Colorado Rockies
on Sunday. With this, storm motion across central and western NM
will be from east to west. High temperatures areawide will be around
seasonal averages for mid July.

Heading into next week the monsoon high over Colorado weakens and
shifts to the central US in response to upper level troughing moving
into the Pacific Coast. At the same time, a tropical wave will be
moving northwest from the Texas Big Bend and northern Mexico. There
is some uncertainty to how far north this wave track with the GFS
moving it into the heart of New Mexico and the ECMWF tracking it
more across southern NM. Regardless a significant uptrend in shower
and thunderstorm activity looks to be in the cards early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Convective initiation has begun along the central mt chain at
noon with the greatest coverage of SHRA/TS peaking from 3pm to
9pm. This activity will move south near 10kt and develop into
nearby highlands and valleys on gusty outflow boundaries. Direct
hits from some of the strongest cells will be capable of brief IFR
vsbys in heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning.
SHRA/TS will slowly taper off from north to south thru midnight
followed by remnant mid level debris clouds thru sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the
next seven days as the Monsoon high moves slowly east across the
region and daily rounds of wetting storms impact the forecast
area. Burn scar flooding will remain a daily threat, with today
being the highest threat level day followed by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  62  96  63 /   5   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  88  47  90  48 /  20  30  30  10
Cuba............................  88  54  88  55 /  30  20  40  20
Gallup..........................  93  53  93  53 /   5   5  20  10
El Morro........................  87  56  86  56 /  10  10  40  30
Grants..........................  90  55  89  56 /  10  10  40  20
Quemado.........................  90  57  89  56 /  10  20  60  50
Magdalena.......................  86  61  87  62 /  40  30  60  30
Datil...........................  86  57  85  57 /  20  20  70  30
Reserve.........................  94  54  92  53 /  20  20  70  50
Glenwood........................  97  66  95  66 /  30  30  80  50
Chama...........................  79  47  82  48 /  50  40  50  20
Los Alamos......................  82  59  83  61 /  50  20  60  20
Pecos...........................  83  55  82  56 /  70  30  70  20
Cerro/Questa....................  80  43  82  45 /  50  50  60  20
Red River.......................  70  44  72  46 /  70  40  60  10
Angel Fire......................  74  40  76  41 /  70  30  60  10
Taos............................  85  49  86  50 /  40  30  50  10
Mora............................  78  49  79  50 /  60  20  70  10
Espanola........................  90  57  90  59 /  30  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  84  59  84  60 /  50  30  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  88  57  89  59 /  40  20  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  64  91  65 /  30  30  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  63  93  65 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  63  94  64 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  64  93  65 /  20  20  20  20
Belen...........................  94  61  95  62 /  20  20  30  20
Bernalillo......................  93  63  94  64 /  20  20  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  94  61 /  20  10  20  20
Corrales........................  94  63  94  63 /  20  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  94  61  95  62 /  20  10  20  20
Placitas........................  89  62  91  63 /  30  20  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  92  64  93  65 /  20  20  30  20
Socorro.........................  97  65  96  65 /  30  20  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  58  86  60 /  60  20  50  20
Tijeras.........................  89  59  91  61 /  50  20  50  20
Edgewood........................  89  55  89  56 /  60  20  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  52  88  53 /  60  20  50  20
Clines Corners..................  82  53  81  55 /  50  20  50  20
Mountainair.....................  87  55  87  57 /  60  20  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  87  55  86  56 /  70  30  70  30
Carrizozo.......................  89  61  88  63 /  50  40  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  79  55  79  56 /  70  40  80  20
Capulin.........................  80  54  82  57 /  30  10  20   0
Raton...........................  84  54  87  55 /  30  20  20   0
Springer........................  85  54  87  55 /  30  20  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  79  52  79  54 /  50  20  60  10
Clayton.........................  87  61  90  63 /  20   5  10   0
Roy.............................  82  57  85  60 /  30  20  20   5
Conchas.........................  90  62  92  64 /  20  30  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  87  59  88  62 /  30  30  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  90  61  92  64 /  20  20   5   5
Clovis..........................  90  64  92  66 /  30  30  10  10
Portales........................  90  64  93  66 /  30  20  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  91  63  93  65 /  30  30  20  10
Roswell.........................  95  67  97  69 /  30  20  20   5
Picacho.........................  88  61  89  62 /  40  30  50  10
Elk.............................  84  57  86  58 /  70  30  70  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ214-215-221>224-226-229-
239-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42