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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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821 FXUS65 KABQ 111741 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1141 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A lower coverage of diurnal showers and storms expected across the northern, central and southwest mountains this afternoon before moving into surrounding lower elevations come the evening. The monsoon high over the Great Basin today shifts to Utah Friday and then to Colorado over the weekend, shifting the higher moisture and diurnal shower and storm chances to western areas and Arizona. The monsoon high then breaks down and shifts east of the Rockies next week. This combined with disturbances moving north from Mexico will increase shower and storm chances areawide come next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A 597dam 500mb high continues over Las Vegas NV, with near to below normal PWATs across NM and northerly flow aloft. Today will be similar to yesterday, but storm motion will be toward the southwest as flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere veers slightly with the upper high center drifting northward. Southwest storm motion should take storms that develop over the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars away from vulnerable populations and off scar. Today is a lower threat day with relative lower PoPs so will refrain from issuing a Flash Flood Watch, although it only takes one storm in the wrong spot to create major problems given our very sensitive scars. Once again, storms that develop east of the Sandias/Manzanos will send outflow westward and create strong/gusty east canyon winds. The upper high will begin it`s eastward journey Friday and move over UT, veering winds in the mid levels toward the west a little more and creating west-southwest storm motion. PWATs are forecast to trend down some Friday and slightly warmer temps aloft will make for less impressive lapse rates and weaker updrafts. Friday is looking like an even lower threat day for burn scar flooding. Temperatures will trend up a tad Friday, with highs forecast to be a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 With the 598 to 599 dam monsoon high shifting towards Colorado this weekend, diurnal showers and storms will be much lower in coverage and favor north central and western NM due to mid level moisture redistributing here and drier mid levels across eastern NM. This will give the people across Ruidoso a much needed break from this week`s extreme flash flooding. Storm motion will be from east to west. High temperatures areawide will be slightly above seasonal averages for mid July. Heading into next week the monsoon high over Colorado weakens and shifts to the central US in response to upper level troughing moving into the Pacific Coast and a tropical wave moving north from the Texas Big Bend and northern Mexico to the NM/TX border. This will help to gradually increase storm coverage across the high terrain Monday and then moreso areawide Tuesday into next Wednesday as PWATs increase to around 1 inch across western NM to around 1.5 inches across eastern NM near the Texas border. The monsoon high center looks to redevelop and really strengthen over the Great Basin and Utah beginning next Wednesday, but disturbances moving southward across the Great Plains along the eastern flank of the upper high combined with the monsoon moisture in place, indicated by the aforementioned above normal PWAT values, will keep a scattered to numerous coverage of storms across the forecast area through the end of next week. Storm motion will generally be from northeast to southwest. Temperatures drop slightly below normal come late week thanks to the higher storm coverage and cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered showers and storms today will favor areas along and adjacent to the central mtn chain and the southwest mtns. Storms will develop around 18Z, drifting south to southwest around 5-15KT. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may accompany any storms, but will be most common near storms in the southwest mtns. Overall confidence in storms impacting terminals is relatively low, but will be most likely for sites along the Rio Grande Valley. Colliding outflow boundaries may result in quickly developing storms from 22Z through around 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 No critical fire weather conditions forecast through at least the next seven days as the Monsoon high drifts east across the region and weakens, allowing for an uptick in atmospheric moisture and chances for wetting storms from mid through late next week. Burn scar flooding will continue to be a threat, but will trend down through the weekend before trending up next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 96 64 98 64 / 10 10 5 10 Dulce........................... 89 49 92 51 / 30 20 30 20 Cuba............................ 88 55 89 57 / 30 20 20 40 Gallup.......................... 94 54 95 56 / 10 10 20 30 El Morro........................ 87 56 89 57 / 30 30 20 60 Grants.......................... 90 56 92 58 / 20 30 20 40 Quemado......................... 90 56 90 58 / 50 30 40 60 Magdalena....................... 87 62 89 63 / 50 50 20 30 Datil........................... 85 56 86 58 / 60 40 30 30 Reserve......................... 93 52 92 55 / 60 30 50 50 Glenwood........................ 95 65 95 66 / 70 40 40 40 Chama........................... 80 49 85 50 / 40 20 40 30 Los Alamos...................... 84 61 87 62 / 40 30 40 30 Pecos........................... 82 56 86 56 / 60 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 46 85 48 / 30 20 40 20 Red River....................... 71 46 76 47 / 40 20 50 20 Angel Fire...................... 75 41 79 43 / 50 20 40 10 Taos............................ 87 50 89 51 / 30 20 30 20 Mora............................ 79 50 83 52 / 50 20 30 20 Espanola........................ 92 59 94 60 / 20 20 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 85 60 87 61 / 40 20 40 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 59 91 61 / 30 20 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 66 93 67 / 40 20 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 66 95 68 / 20 20 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 65 97 68 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 65 95 68 / 20 20 20 30 Belen........................... 95 62 98 65 / 20 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 94 64 96 66 / 20 20 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 95 62 97 65 / 20 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 95 63 96 66 / 20 20 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 95 62 97 64 / 20 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 91 63 92 65 / 30 30 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 94 65 95 67 / 20 20 20 30 Socorro......................... 96 66 97 68 / 20 30 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 60 87 61 / 50 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 87 61 89 62 / 50 20 20 20 Edgewood........................ 87 58 89 60 / 50 20 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 54 90 56 / 50 20 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 83 55 86 57 / 50 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 85 58 88 59 / 50 20 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 87 58 88 59 / 60 30 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 88 64 90 64 / 40 20 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 79 56 81 57 / 50 10 20 5 Capulin......................... 83 57 88 59 / 20 10 20 0 Raton........................... 87 55 92 56 / 20 10 20 5 Springer........................ 88 55 92 57 / 20 10 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 81 54 85 55 / 30 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 91 64 95 65 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 86 60 90 62 / 10 10 5 0 Conchas......................... 93 64 98 66 / 10 10 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 90 62 94 64 / 10 10 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 93 64 98 66 / 10 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 92 66 95 66 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 93 66 96 67 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 93 66 97 67 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 70 99 70 / 10 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 89 63 91 64 / 20 10 5 0 Elk............................. 84 59 87 59 / 30 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...16