406
FXUS65 KABQ 141203 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
603 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Similar to yesterday, showers and thunderstorms will be
concentrated over the northern and western mountains of New Mexico
today with activity generally being a bit more sparse and
subdued. Temperatures will also be warm to hot with Heat
Advisories in some lower elevation valley locations where readings
will approach 100 degrees. Storms will once again redevelop over
the northern and central mountains on Monday, but they will begin
to expand slightly in coverage. Moisture is forecast to increase
Tuesday and more significantly into Wednesday through the rest of
the week. As rain chances rise through this time, so will the
chance for locally heavy downpours and flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The center of high pressure in the mid levels is now forecast to
remain over the CO/NM border today with PWATs remaining around 0.50-
0.80" like yesterday.  As a result, some storms will have small
wetting footprints, and there will be some gusty virga showers in
the mix. Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms are
forecast over western and northern areas this afternoon and evening,
with a few cells perhaps as far south as Albuquerque in the early
evening. High temperatures are forecast to climb a few to around 10
degrees above 1991-2020 averages this afternoon, reaching the 90s
and low 100s at lower elevations, triggering a Heat Advisory in the
Albuquerque and Farmington areas during the afternoon and early
evening.

The upper high is forecast to sink southward over northern parts of
the forecast area on Monday, while weakening to around 595 DAM.
High temperatures may again warrant another Heat Advisory over
central and northwest areas Monday with the high pressure system
more directly overhead; however, the high pressure system will
weaken a little, and more showers and thunderstorms are expected,
so confidence in the need for an additional heat advisory is only
moderate at this time. An upper level trough will track
southeastward across WY and CO on Monday drawing a little better
low level moisture northward over NM under the upper high. In
addition, a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the upper
high is forecast to track westward over southwest NM on Monday.
The net effect will be to increase thunderstorm coverage Monday
afternoon and evening with scattered-to-numerous cells over
southwest and north central areas, and scattered-to-isolated
activity elsewhere, except for dry weather along and southeast of
a line from Quay to southeast Lincoln County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Convection over southern CO and northern NM Monday evening will
be juxtaposed over the leading edge of a synoptic boundary, a
moist surface front dropping down the plains. Forecast models
continue to depict outflow from Monday`s storms spreading
southward through the evening, and this could spill a northerly
wind shift toward I-40 by early Tuesday morning while enhancing
dewpoints. Exactly how this boundary shakes out will certainly be
determined by convection, but all models indicate some uptick in
storms Tuesday, particularly over northeastern zones whether by
upslope flow or by moisture/surface convergence. Temperatures
would also likely cool a few degrees Tuesday due to the mornings
wind shift while the upper high relocates toward the AZ-NM border.

A reinforcing push from the synoptic surface high over the plains
would keep bringing moist air into NM from the east on Wednesday.
Consequently, the PWATs look to start inching above normal
Wednesday with many central to eastern zones reaching close to a
1.0 to 1.3 inch range while even western zones see a more diffuse
increase to 0.8 to 1.0 inch. The upper high would nudge a bit
farther west Wednesday, with the anticyclonic flow carrying storms
over NM southward with widespread coverage in the afternoon and
evening. All area burn scars would be under a higher threat for
flooding, and a healthy coverage of storms will likely carry on
well into the evening.

Thursday through the rest of the week will see a slow migration
and strengthening of the high as it moves over the Great Basin
while a broad trough stays carved out over eastern states. This
will keep storms over NM generally steered southward. Surface
winds over NM would tend to veer more southerly, but will have
periodic easterly pushes that will keep moisture intruding from
the east and overcoming any drier air aloft that might try to
sneak in from CO. PWATs look to stay above normal through this
time, and this will keep a very active thunderstorm pattern going
with numerous strong storms capable of locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western
and northern areas today. Isolated cells are forecast over
central areas in the early evening as well, potentially as far
south as Albuquerque, but the probability of them hitting the AEG
or ABQ aerodromes is low. Atmospheric moisture is somewhat
limited, so the wetting footprints of storms should generally be
pretty small with a fair amount of gusty virga showers around.
Microbursts will be capable of brief, localized, and erratic wind
gusts over 40 KT near thunderstorms and virga showers. In
addition, high temperatures a few to around 10 degrees above
1991-2020 averages will make density altitude an important
consideration for aviation operations near complex terrain this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The upper high is forecast to linger over the NM/CO border today,
sink southward some over northern NM on Monday, then migrate
westward around northeast AZ Tuesday through Thursday, and
eventually reach the Great Basin over the coming weekend. Scattered-
to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and
northern areas today, when PWATs in the 0.50-0.80" range will
probably limit the size of wetting footprints and result in a fair
amount of gusty virga in the mix. PWATs will slowly begin to
rebound on Monday, then increase more rapidly Tuesday through the
end of the week as a couple of moist backdoor fronts move into the
area followed by a rich return flow of low level moisture out of
the southeast. PWATs should reach near and over 1 inch most places
during the middle and latter half of the week raising the concern
for locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding as
scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms develop each
afternoon and evening areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  65  99  64 /  10  10   0  20
Dulce...........................  96  51  95  52 /  30  20  30  30
Cuba............................  92  59  93  60 /  20  30  30  40
Gallup..........................  94  54  94  56 /  30  30  30  40
El Morro........................  90  57  89  55 /  20  30  40  60
Grants..........................  93  58  92  59 /  20  30  40  50
Quemado.........................  92  58  91  56 /  20  30  60  60
Magdalena.......................  91  64  93  63 /   0   5  30  30
Datil...........................  89  59  89  57 /  10  20  40  40
Reserve.........................  96  56  95  55 /  30  40  60  50
Glenwood........................  98  69  99  65 /  30  40  60  50
Chama...........................  87  52  88  52 /  40  20  60  40
Los Alamos......................  88  65  89  64 /  20  20  50  40
Pecos...........................  90  62  91  60 /  20  20  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  89  48  88  47 /  40  20  70  40
Red River.......................  80  50  80  44 /  40  30  70  40
Angel Fire......................  83  47  82  41 /  30  20  60  40
Taos............................  93  54  92  53 /  20  20  40  40
Mora............................  88  55  89  54 /  20  20  50  40
Espanola........................  97  62  97  62 /  20  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  91  64  92  63 /  20  20  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  94  63  94  61 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  71  97  68 /  10  10  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  67 102  62 /  10  10   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  69 100  69 /  10  20   5  30
Belen........................... 100  64 100  64 /   0  10   5  30
Bernalillo...................... 100  67 101  66 /  10  20  10  30
Bosque Farms.................... 100  64 100  61 /   5  10   5  30
Corrales........................ 101  68 101  67 /  10  20  10  30
Los Lunas....................... 100  66 100  63 /   5  10   5  30
Placitas........................  96  67  97  65 /  10  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  99  68 100  68 /  10  20  10  30
Socorro......................... 100  68 102  69 /   0   5  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  64  92  63 /  20  20  20  30
Tijeras.........................  93  64  94  64 /  20  10  20  40
Edgewood........................  93  59  94  61 /  10  10  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  56  95  57 /   5  10  20  30
Clines Corners..................  90  59  91  59 /   5   5  20  30
Mountainair.....................  92  60  93  60 /   5   5  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  92  59  93  61 /   0   0  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  65  95  67 /   0   0   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  86  58  87  57 /   5   0  10  20
Capulin.........................  92  61  91  56 /  20  20  30  30
Raton...........................  95  59  94  58 /  20  20  30  30
Springer........................  96  60  95  59 /  20  20  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  89  59  89  57 /  10  10  40  30
Clayton.........................  99  70 100  66 /   5  10   5  20
Roy.............................  94  64  95  63 /   5  10  20  30
Conchas......................... 100  67 101  67 /   0   5   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  64  97  66 /   0   0   0  20
Tucumcari....................... 101  67 102  67 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  97  67  99  69 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell......................... 100  69 102  72 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  93  63  97  66 /   0   0   5   5
Elk.............................  91  59  94  62 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ201-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44