821
FXUS65 KABQ 111741 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A lower coverage of diurnal showers and storms expected across the
northern, central and southwest mountains this afternoon before
moving into surrounding lower elevations come the evening. The
monsoon high over the Great Basin today shifts to Utah Friday and
then to Colorado over the weekend, shifting the higher moisture and
diurnal shower and storm chances to western areas and Arizona. The
monsoon high then breaks down and shifts east of the Rockies next
week. This combined with disturbances moving north from Mexico will
increase shower and storm chances areawide come next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A 597dam 500mb high continues over Las Vegas NV, with near to below
normal PWATs across NM and northerly flow aloft. Today will be
similar to yesterday, but storm motion will be toward the southwest
as flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere veers slightly with the
upper high center drifting northward. Southwest storm motion should
take storms that develop over the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn
scars away from vulnerable populations and off scar. Today is a
lower threat day with relative lower PoPs so will refrain from
issuing a Flash Flood Watch, although it only takes one storm in the
wrong spot to create major problems given our very sensitive scars.
Once again, storms that develop east of the Sandias/Manzanos will
send outflow westward and create strong/gusty east canyon winds.
The upper high will begin it`s eastward journey Friday and move over
UT, veering winds in the mid levels toward the west a little more
and creating west-southwest storm motion. PWATs are forecast to
trend down some Friday and slightly warmer temps aloft will make for
less impressive lapse rates and weaker updrafts. Friday is looking
like an even lower threat day for burn scar flooding. Temperatures
will trend up a tad Friday, with highs forecast to be a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

With the 598 to 599 dam monsoon high shifting towards Colorado this
weekend, diurnal showers and storms will be much lower in
coverage and favor north central and western NM due to mid level
moisture redistributing here and drier mid levels across eastern
NM. This will give the people across Ruidoso a much needed break
from this week`s extreme flash flooding. Storm motion will be from
east to west. High temperatures areawide will be slightly above
seasonal averages for mid July.

Heading into next week the monsoon high over Colorado weakens and
shifts to the central US in response to upper level troughing moving
into the Pacific Coast and a tropical wave moving north from the
Texas Big Bend and northern Mexico to the NM/TX border. This will
help to gradually increase storm coverage across the high terrain
Monday and then moreso areawide Tuesday into next Wednesday as PWATs
increase to around 1 inch across western NM to around 1.5 inches
across eastern NM near the Texas border. The monsoon high center
looks to redevelop and really strengthen over the Great Basin and
Utah beginning next Wednesday, but disturbances moving southward
across the Great Plains along the eastern flank of the upper high
combined with the monsoon moisture in place, indicated by the
aforementioned above normal PWAT values, will keep a scattered to
numerous coverage of storms across the forecast area through the end
of next week. Storm motion will generally be from northeast to
southwest. Temperatures drop slightly below normal come late week
thanks to the higher storm coverage and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and storms today will favor areas along and
adjacent to the central mtn chain and the southwest mtns. Storms
will develop around 18Z, drifting south to southwest around
5-15KT. Small hail and gusty outflow winds may accompany any
storms, but will be most common near storms in the southwest mtns.
Overall confidence in storms impacting terminals is relatively
low, but will be most likely for sites along the Rio Grande
Valley. Colliding outflow boundaries may result in quickly
developing storms from 22Z through around 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

No critical fire weather conditions forecast through at least the
next seven days as the Monsoon high drifts east across the region
and weakens, allowing for an uptick in atmospheric moisture and
chances for wetting storms from mid through late next week. Burn
scar flooding will continue to be a threat, but will trend down
through the weekend before trending up next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  64  98  64 /  10  10   5  10
Dulce...........................  89  49  92  51 /  30  20  30  20
Cuba............................  88  55  89  57 /  30  20  20  40
Gallup..........................  94  54  95  56 /  10  10  20  30
El Morro........................  87  56  89  57 /  30  30  20  60
Grants..........................  90  56  92  58 /  20  30  20  40
Quemado.........................  90  56  90  58 /  50  30  40  60
Magdalena.......................  87  62  89  63 /  50  50  20  30
Datil...........................  85  56  86  58 /  60  40  30  30
Reserve.........................  93  52  92  55 /  60  30  50  50
Glenwood........................  95  65  95  66 /  70  40  40  40
Chama...........................  80  49  85  50 /  40  20  40  30
Los Alamos......................  84  61  87  62 /  40  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  82  56  86  56 /  60  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  46  85  48 /  30  20  40  20
Red River.......................  71  46  76  47 /  40  20  50  20
Angel Fire......................  75  41  79  43 /  50  20  40  10
Taos............................  87  50  89  51 /  30  20  30  20
Mora............................  79  50  83  52 /  50  20  30  20
Espanola........................  92  59  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Santa Fe........................  85  60  87  61 /  40  20  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  89  59  91  61 /  30  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  66  93  67 /  40  20  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  66  95  68 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  65  97  68 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  65  95  68 /  20  20  20  30
Belen...........................  95  62  98  65 /  20  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  94  64  96  66 /  20  20  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  95  62  97  65 /  20  20  10  20
Corrales........................  95  63  96  66 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  95  62  97  64 /  20  20  10  20
Placitas........................  91  63  92  65 /  30  30  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  94  65  95  67 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  96  66  97  68 /  20  30   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  60  87  61 /  50  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  87  61  89  62 /  50  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  87  58  89  60 /  50  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  54  90  56 /  50  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  83  55  86  57 /  50  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  85  58  88  59 /  50  20  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  87  58  88  59 /  60  30  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  88  64  90  64 /  40  20   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  79  56  81  57 /  50  10  20   5
Capulin.........................  83  57  88  59 /  20  10  20   0
Raton...........................  87  55  92  56 /  20  10  20   5
Springer........................  88  55  92  57 /  20  10  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  81  54  85  55 /  30  20  20  10
Clayton.........................  91  64  95  65 /  10  10   0   0
Roy.............................  86  60  90  62 /  10  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  93  64  98  66 /  10  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  90  62  94  64 /  10  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  93  64  98  66 /  10  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  92  66  95  66 /  10  10   0   0
Portales........................  93  66  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  66  97  67 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  63  91  64 /  20  10   5   0
Elk.............................  84  59  87  59 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16