698
FXUS65 KABQ 120008 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and storms will favor the high terrain of western
and northern New Mexico each afternoon and evening through the
weekend. Rainfall amounts will generally be light, but flash
flooding over recent burn scars cannot be ruled out with locally
heavy rainfall. Storm coverage will trend up early to mid-next
week as more monsoonal moisture arrives into the region. This will
result in a high risk of burn scar flash flooding, with localized
flash flooding possible elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and storms that have developed thus far this
afternoon have been terrain-tied, but will begin to drift into the
lower elevations later this afternoon into the evening. High
pressure is currently centered over southeast NV, placing New
Mexico under weak north/northeasterly flow. Storm motions have
been less erratic than previous days and that should remain the
case as storms build and tap into the slightly stronger flow at
500-400mb. The flash flood threat through the rest of the day will
generally be confined to recent burn scars including HPCC where a
flash flood warning is already in effect. Elevated flows on
creeks and localized flash flooding is possible with training
storms in the southwest mtns as well. Some hi-res models are
indicating that colliding outflow boundaries could generate a few
storms along the Rio Grande Valley this evening, similar to last
night. Storms and associated cloud coverage will decrease
significantly overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

High pressure will move eastward into Utah tomorrow, allowing a
slightly drier airmass to infiltrate from the northeast. This will
limit the coverage of storms south of I-40, although scattered
storms are still likely in the northern mtns. Steering flow will be
from northeast to southwest and slightly quicker than previous days
at around 15-25kts. The overall flash flood risk will be relatively
low, but cannot be ruled out with isolated heavy showers over
sensitive burn scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The high pressure system that will be located near the
Four Corners on Friday will begin to shift towards the Central
Plains in response to a trough moving in from the northwest during
the late weekend and the start of next week. During the weekend, the
best moisture content will remain over western New Mexico, resulting
in a focused area of showers in that region. However, a moisture
plume with PWATs between 1-1.25" will begin to enter New Mexico from
the southeast starting Monday, which will lead to an increase in
precipitation chances over the rest of the state, particularly on
Wednesday and Thursday. A backdoor front looks to enter the region
during the later part of the forecast period on Wednesday, which
could bring additional moisture. Due to the moisture and forcing
provided by the front, it could serve as a focal point for
additional thunderstorm development over the Eastern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and storms will continue to favor areas along
and west of the central mtn chain through around 03Z this evening,
although a few showers and isolated storms may linger through as
late as 06Z. Strong outflow wind gusts up to 40KT and small hail
may accompany any storms that develop. Storms developing over the
high terrain may impact sites along the Rio Grande Valley as they
drift southwest into the lower elevations this evening.
Convective activity tomorrow will begin around 18Z over the high
terrain, with storms moving into the lower elevations by 21Z.
Confidence in storms impacting individual TAF sites is low to
moderate at this time.


While brief MVRF conditions are possible under heavier showers and
storms, VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
Scattered afternoon and evening storms today through the weekend
will favor the high terrain of western and northern NM. Rainfall
totals will generally be less than 0.25" through this period, but
locally heavy rainfall totals producing burn scar flash flooding
cannot be ruled out. Precipitation chances will trend up early next
week as deeper monsoonal moisture arrives into the region. A
backdoor front may further increase moisture Tuesday night and again
Wednesday night. Therefore, widespread storms with elevated
flooding concerns are likely mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  98  63  97 /   0   5   5   5
Dulce...........................  49  90  50  94 /  20  30  20  30
Cuba............................  55  91  56  90 /  20  20  40  30
Gallup..........................  54  94  55  93 /   5  20  30  30
El Morro........................  56  87  57  87 /  20  40  50  60
Grants..........................  56  91  57  91 /  20  30  40  40
Quemado.........................  56  89  58  89 /  30  60  60  70
Magdalena.......................  61  88  63  90 /  20  20  20  30
Datil...........................  56  86  58  87 /  40  40  30  40
Reserve.........................  52  92  54  93 /  30  70  40  70
Glenwood........................  65  94  66  97 /  30  60  40  60
Chama...........................  48  83  50  86 /  30  40  20  50
Los Alamos......................  61  86  62  87 /  40  40  30  40
Pecos...........................  55  87  56  87 /  10  40  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  46  85  47  87 /  20  40  20  50
Red River.......................  45  75  47  78 /  20  40  20  50
Angel Fire......................  39  79  42  80 /  10  40  10  40
Taos............................  48  90  51  91 /  20  30  20  30
Mora............................  50  82  51  85 /  10  40  20  40
Espanola........................  59  94  60  95 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  59  87  61  88 /  20  40  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  91  60  91 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  92  68  95 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  95  68  96 /  20  10  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  96  67  98 /  20   5  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  96  67  97 /  30   5  20  10
Belen...........................  62  96  64  97 /  20   5  20   5
Bernalillo......................  64  96  66  98 /  30  10  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  62  96  64  97 /  20   5  20   5
Corrales........................  63  96  66  98 /  30  10  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  61  96  64  97 /  20   5  20   5
Placitas........................  64  92  65  93 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  64  95  67  97 /  30  10  20  10
Socorro.........................  66  97  67  98 /  40   5  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  88  61  89 /  20  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  61  89  62  91 /  20  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  58  89  59  91 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  90  55  92 /  20  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  55  86  56  87 /  20  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  58  88  59  89 /  20  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  88  58  89 /  20  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  64  92 /  30  10   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  83  56  83 /  20  20   0  10
Capulin.........................  57  88  59  87 /   5  10   0  10
Raton...........................  54  92  56  91 /   5  10   0  10
Springer........................  54  94  56  92 /  10  20   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  55  84  56  86 /  10  30  10  20
Clayton.........................  64  96  66  94 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  61  90  62  90 /  10  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  65  97  66  96 /   5   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  93  64  92 /  10   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  98  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 100  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  92  63  91 /   0   5   0   5
Elk.............................  58  86  58  89 /   5  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...16