766
FXUS65 KABQ 121159 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A warming and drying trend is in play through the weekend, with
temperatures rising above normal areawide and a downtick in daily
rounds of thunderstorms. Moisture will ramp up next week, leading
to an increase in thunderstorm coverage with an elevated threat
for flash flooding, especially on and near area burn scars.
Temperatures will trend down below normal most areas from mid to
late next week due to cloud cover and rain cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The center of high pressure in the mid levels is forecast to migrate
eastward across UT today, then farther east over CO on Saturday.
This afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor western, north central, and to a lesser
extent central areas.  Similar weather is forecast overall on
Saturday, but some models suggest there will be more numerous
thunderstorms over southwest and west central areas Saturday if a
wave passing westward over northern Mexico manages to track far
enough to the north. Storms will mostly track toward the
southwest today at speeds up to 10 mph, and more toward the west
up to 10 mph on Saturday. Due to the close proximity of the upper
high, some cells may have slow and erratic motion, but PWATs only
around 0.50-0.80" today, and perhaps a little higher on Saturday,
suggest any heavy rainfall will be localized. There will be less
of a concern for burn scar flash flooding today and Saturday,
since storms that form over the high terrain of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains will travel toward the west and/or
southwest, away from the scars. However, there is a small chance
that a slower moving cell could stall over a scar, especially in
the unlikely scenario where the high aloft tracks more over NM
than CO, which would probably lead to hazardous runoff. High
temperatures will vary from near 1991-2020 averages to around 8
degrees above today and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A slow warming and drying trend will continue through the weekend
as a 597dam 500mb high sits over southern CO and northern NM. The
downtrend in daytime heating triggered convection will continue
into Sunday, with temperatures rising above normal areawide. The
threat for burn scar flooding from Saturday night through Sunday
night will be relatively low. The upper high is forecast to weaken
some and drift back west to over northern AZ by Tuesday. This
scenario will allow low level moisture to creep north and west
across the area, boosting PWATs back to normal, or slightly
above, and lead to an increase in coverage of storms. The threat
for burn scar flooding will be back on the uptrend as well during
the early week period. PWATs get boosted more on Wednesday with a
backdoor front, setting the stage for a very active mid to late
week period with an elevated threat for burn scar flooding. The
upper high is forecast to restrengthen along the AZ/UT border,
creating northerly flow aloft across our area are steering storms
to the south. That setup could lead to training of storms over the
HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars and would also bring
storms off of the mountains across the Santa Fe and Albuquerque
Metros late day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over western, north central,
and to a lesser extent central areas this afternoon and evening,
except for numerous cells over southwest areas. Storm motion
should mostly be toward the southwest at speeds up to 10 KT,
which should carry some cells over the middle and lower Rio Grande
Valley in the evening. Greatest confidence in storms hitting TAF
sites is west of the central mountain chain. There is lower
confidence that a cell will hit KLVS due to model differences in
storm motion there. Wet microbursts are expected this afternoon
and evening, and some cells will have a small wetting footprint
with some virga. Stronger cells will be capable of producing
brief, localized, and erratic wind gusts over 40 KT, as well as
small hail. Storms will mostly diminish by midnight, then a cell
or two could linger over western Catron County as late as 2 AM
MDT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The upper high is forecast to migrate eastward over UT today, CO
Saturday, then southward over northern NM Sunday, and gradually
westward over AZ or northwestward over the UT/AZ border early next
week. Daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through
Monday. Some models suggest more numerous storms over southwest and
west central areas on Saturday, if a wave tracking westward over
northern Mexico manages to track far enough to the north. A moist
backdoor front is then forecast to push through the forecast area
from the northeast Tuesday, resulting in an uptick in the coverage
and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms areawide both Tuesday and
Wednesday.  The potential exists for a gusty east wind below canyons
opening into the central valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. High
temperatures are forecast to vary from near to around 8 degrees
above 1991-2020 averages today through Monday or Tuesday, then they
will probably fall a few to several degrees below the averages
across eastern areas behind the backdoor front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  63  98  64 /   5  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  92  50  94  50 /  30  20  30  20
Cuba............................  90  57  91  57 /  30  30  30  40
Gallup..........................  94  55  93  56 /  20  30  30  30
El Morro........................  88  58  87  57 /  40  50  60  30
Grants..........................  91  58  91  57 /  20  30  40  30
Quemado.........................  89  58  89  59 /  50  50  70  30
Magdalena.......................  88  64  90  63 /  10  20  20  10
Datil...........................  86  59  88  58 /  30  30  40  20
Reserve.........................  93  54  93  57 /  60  40  80  30
Glenwood........................  95  67  96  68 /  60  40  60  30
Chama...........................  85  50  87  50 /  30  20  50  20
Los Alamos......................  86  63  88  62 /  40  20  50  20
Pecos...........................  85  58  88  57 /  50  20  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  85  47  87  47 /  50  20  50  20
Red River.......................  77  49  79  47 /  50  10  50  20
Angel Fire......................  80  44  81  43 /  60  10  40  10
Taos............................  90  53  91  51 /  30  10  30  20
Mora............................  84  53  85  52 /  50  10  40  20
Espanola........................  94  60  95  61 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  87  62  88  61 /  40  20  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  90  60  92  61 /  30  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  68  95  68 /  20  30  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  67  97  69 /  10  30  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  67  99  68 /  10  30   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  68  97  69 /  10  20  10  20
Belen...........................  96  64  98  65 /  10  20   5  10
Bernalillo......................  97  66  98  67 /  10  20  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  96  64  98  64 /  10  20   5  10
Corrales........................  97  67  98  67 /  10  20  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  96  66  98  65 /  10  20   5  10
Placitas........................  93  66  94  66 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  96  67  98  68 /  10  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  97  68  98  67 /   5  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  62  89  61 /  20  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  90  63  91  63 /  20  30  20  20
Edgewood........................  90  58  92  60 /  20  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  55  92  56 /  20  20  10  10
Clines Corners..................  86  57  88  57 /  20  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  88  60  90  60 /  10  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  88  58  89  58 /  10  20  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  91  63  92  65 /  10   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  82  57  83  57 /  10   0  10   0
Capulin.........................  86  58  88  60 /  20   5  10  10
Raton...........................  91  56  93  57 /  20   5  10   5
Springer........................  92  57  93  57 /  20  10  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  85  55  86  56 /  30  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  95  66  96  65 /  10  10   0  10
Roy.............................  90  62  91  62 /  10  10   0  10
Conchas.........................  96  66  97  66 /   5   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  93  63  93  64 /   5   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  97  66  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  96  67  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  96  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  96  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  98  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  88  58  89  58 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44