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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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978 FXUS65 KABQ 121734 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1134 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A warming and drying trend is in play through the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal areawide and a downtick in daily rounds of thunderstorms. Moisture will ramp up next week, leading to an increase in thunderstorm coverage with an elevated threat for flash flooding, especially on and near area burn scars. Temperatures will trend down below normal most areas from mid to late next week due to cloud cover and rain cooling. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The center of high pressure in the mid levels is forecast to migrate eastward across UT today, then farther east over CO on Saturday. This afternoon and evening, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western, north central, and to a lesser extent central areas. Similar weather is forecast overall on Saturday, but some models suggest there will be more numerous thunderstorms over southwest and west central areas Saturday if a wave passing westward over northern Mexico manages to track far enough to the north. Storms will mostly track toward the southwest today at speeds up to 10 mph, and more toward the west up to 10 mph on Saturday. Due to the close proximity of the upper high, some cells may have slow and erratic motion, but PWATs only around 0.50-0.80" today, and perhaps a little higher on Saturday, suggest any heavy rainfall will be localized. There will be less of a concern for burn scar flash flooding today and Saturday, since storms that form over the high terrain of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains will travel toward the west and/or southwest, away from the scars. However, there is a small chance that a slower moving cell could stall over a scar, especially in the unlikely scenario where the high aloft tracks more over NM than CO, which would probably lead to hazardous runoff. High temperatures will vary from near 1991-2020 averages to around 8 degrees above today and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A slow warming and drying trend will continue through the weekend as a 597dam 500mb high sits over southern CO and northern NM. The downtrend in daytime heating triggered convection will continue into Sunday, with temperatures rising above normal areawide. The threat for burn scar flooding from Saturday night through Sunday night will be relatively low. The upper high is forecast to weaken some and drift back west to over northern AZ by Tuesday. This scenario will allow low level moisture to creep north and west across the area, boosting PWATs back to normal, or slightly above, and lead to an increase in coverage of storms. The threat for burn scar flooding will be back on the uptrend as well during the early week period. PWATs get boosted more on Wednesday with a backdoor front, setting the stage for a very active mid to late week period with an elevated threat for burn scar flooding. The upper high is forecast to restrengthen along the AZ/UT border, creating northerly flow aloft across our area are steering storms to the south. That setup could lead to training of storms over the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars and would also bring storms off of the mountains across the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros late day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A slight downtick in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected today compared to yesterday, with mainly isolated thunderstorms over western, north central, and central areas this afternoon through early evening. Storm motion is toward the southwest around 10 kt. Drier air continues to work in around the monsoon high centered over southern UT through the day, so most storms will struggle to produce longer lived heavy rain. A few stronger cells will be capable of producing brief, localized, and erratic wind gusts over 40 KT, mainly over the northwest half of NM while the southeast half remains dry. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 139 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The upper high is forecast to migrate eastward over UT today, CO Saturday, then southward over northern NM Sunday, and gradually westward over AZ or northwestward over the UT/AZ border early next week. Daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Monday. Some models suggest more numerous storms over southwest and west central areas on Saturday, if a wave tracking westward over northern Mexico manages to track far enough to the north. A moist backdoor front is then forecast to push through the forecast area from the northeast Tuesday, resulting in an uptick in the coverage and rainfall intensity of thunderstorms areawide both Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential exists for a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. High temperatures are forecast to vary from near to around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today through Monday or Tuesday, then they will probably fall a few to several degrees below the averages across eastern areas behind the backdoor front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 97 63 98 64 / 5 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 92 50 94 50 / 30 20 30 20 Cuba............................ 90 57 91 57 / 30 30 30 40 Gallup.......................... 94 55 93 56 / 20 30 30 30 El Morro........................ 88 58 87 57 / 40 50 60 30 Grants.......................... 91 58 91 57 / 20 30 40 30 Quemado......................... 89 58 89 59 / 50 50 70 30 Magdalena....................... 88 64 90 63 / 10 20 20 10 Datil........................... 86 59 88 58 / 30 30 40 20 Reserve......................... 93 54 93 57 / 60 40 80 30 Glenwood........................ 95 67 96 68 / 60 40 60 30 Chama........................... 85 50 87 50 / 30 20 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 86 63 88 62 / 40 20 50 20 Pecos........................... 85 58 88 57 / 50 20 40 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 85 47 87 47 / 50 20 50 20 Red River....................... 77 49 79 47 / 50 10 50 20 Angel Fire...................... 80 44 81 43 / 60 10 40 10 Taos............................ 90 53 91 51 / 30 10 30 20 Mora............................ 84 53 85 52 / 50 10 40 20 Espanola........................ 94 60 95 61 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 87 62 88 61 / 40 20 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 60 92 61 / 30 20 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 68 95 68 / 20 30 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 67 97 69 / 10 30 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 67 99 68 / 10 30 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 68 97 69 / 10 20 10 20 Belen........................... 96 64 98 65 / 10 20 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 97 66 98 67 / 10 20 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 96 64 98 64 / 10 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 97 67 98 67 / 10 20 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 96 66 98 65 / 10 20 5 10 Placitas........................ 93 66 94 66 / 20 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 67 98 68 / 10 20 10 20 Socorro......................... 97 68 98 67 / 5 10 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 62 89 61 / 20 20 20 20 Tijeras......................... 90 63 91 63 / 20 30 20 20 Edgewood........................ 90 58 92 60 / 20 20 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 55 92 56 / 20 20 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 86 57 88 57 / 20 20 10 10 Mountainair..................... 88 60 90 60 / 10 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 88 58 89 58 / 10 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 91 63 92 65 / 10 5 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 82 57 83 57 / 10 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 86 58 88 60 / 20 5 10 10 Raton........................... 91 56 93 57 / 20 5 10 5 Springer........................ 92 57 93 57 / 20 10 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 85 55 86 56 / 30 10 20 10 Clayton......................... 95 66 96 65 / 10 10 0 10 Roy............................. 90 62 91 62 / 10 10 0 10 Conchas......................... 96 66 97 66 / 5 5 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 93 63 93 64 / 5 5 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 97 66 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 96 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 96 67 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 96 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 98 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 91 63 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 88 58 89 58 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...33