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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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646 FXUS65 KABQ 151740 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms today will tend to favor the north central to northeastern areas of New Mexico, and a few storms may also be found over the western mountains. Remaining areas of the state are expected to observe only sparse, if any, showers or storms. Much like yesterday, temperatures will be warm to hot again with Heat Advisories in effect for some lower elevation valley locations where readings will approach 100 degrees. Moisture is forecast to increase some on Tuesday, leading to more showers and storms, especially in northeastern areas of New Mexico. Even more moisture will arrive through the latter half of the week, leading to a more significantly active thunderstorm pattern Wednesday onward. As rain chances rise through this time, so will the chance for locally heavy downpours and flash flooding. Temperatures should lower a few degrees, running near to slightly below normal by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The center of high pressure in the mid levels is forecast to remain over northwest NM today and Tuesday, then drift over the Four Corners Wednesday, and drift gradually further west over NV by this weekend. PWATs will generally remain around 0.50-0.80" today, like they have been the past couple days, with some gusty virga showers in the mix over western and northern areas, where showers and thunderstorms will be favored this afternoon and evening. A disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge aloft will track southeastward over northeast NM this evening, helping to steer some storms a bit further south over central areas from around Albuquerque to around Santa Rosa, and perhaps as far east as Tucumcari. High temperatures are forecast to climb a few to around 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages again this afternoon, reaching the 90s and low 100s at lower elevations. Will continue the Heat Advisory for the Albuquerque area this afternoon and early evening, and expand it to the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington. The disturbance clipping northeast NM this evening will send some cooler and moister air into the state with high temperatures falling over northern areas a few to 7 degrees from today`s readings on Tuesday. Meanwhile, central and southern areas will remain hot with more hazardous heat possible. Precipitable water values will begin an upward trend Tuesday, and there will be an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, except over the far southeast plains and the Four Corners where it will probably remain dry. An upper level trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Tuesday, sending a moist backdoor front into the state late in the day and especially Tuesday night. Shear and instability profiles look sufficient for some strong to severe storms over northeast areas Tuesday afternoon, and potentially east central areas by Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Into Tuesday evening, convection will likely be focused over northeastern NM and southeastern CO where the tail end of a moist front will be sagging. Some strong, slow-moving storms could lead to locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding before cells slowly degrade and diminish into the early morning hours Wednesday. By the daytime, the synoptic surface high over the plains will steer an east wind into much of NM, providing upslope flow and moisture advection while the upper high broadly remains over the Four Corners states. Therefore, the PWATs will escalate above normal Wednesday with many central to eastern zones still progged to rise to a 1.0 to 1.3 inch range while even western zones see a more diffuse increase to 0.8 to 1.0 inch. Storms would quickly form over the high terrain in the early afternoon and then multiply and expand into adjacent areas on a fairly widespread basis, propagating southward amid the anticyclonic flow around the high. With these higher PWATs and relatively high 0-6 km bulk shear values (25-35 kt over many central to eastern zones due to directional changes with height), storms will pack a punch with threats of hail, downburst winds and locally heavy downpours. All recent burn scars would be under a higher threat for flooding, and a healthy coverage of storms will likely carry on well into the evening. The upper high would stay just southwest of the Four Corners on Thursday with moisture continuing to nudge upward. The mean PWAT at ABQ among the ENS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles shows values climbing near 1.1 inch (higher to the east and only slightly less farther west). Surface winds are forecast to veer more southerly over a large majority of the forecast area, pointing toward a southern slope initiation for convection on most NM mountain ranges before cells sluggishly drift southward again. There will still be considerable directional shear, so strong storms will again be possible with synoptic models indicating another active evening period as cells redevelop along new mesoscale cold pool boundaries and their subsequent collisions. The weather pattern will be slow to evolve through the rest of the week and the weekend with the upper high eventually working back over the Great Basin. Details of what will happen in middle America are still uncertain, but a potential weak circulation could move southward into the central plains, perhaps being a focus for convection there which could reintroduce easterly surface pushes into NM. The moisture would already be in place, but this could offer more upslope on eastern faces (mainly on the central mountain chain). Storms over NM generally would continue to move southward or southwestward at slow paces while PWATs remain above average, keeping the locally heavy rainfall threat each day through the weekend. Temperatures would hover near to slightly below average each day Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico this afternoon and evening, with gusty outflow winds up to 40KT being the main hazard. Storm motion will be slow and erratic, except across the northeast where will it will be easterly thanks to a weak disturbance rounding the north side of the High that is centered over north-central New Mexico. Some hi-res models are trying to pick-up on an area of showers in central and east-central New Mexico this evening between 00Z and 06Z, including along the Rio Grande Valley. However, confidence was not high enough with this package to include more than a mention of vicinity showers in the TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The upper high is forecast to dwell over northwest NM today and Tuesday, then drift over the Four Corners Wednesday, and drift gradually further west over NV by this weekend. Scattered-to- isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern areas again today, when PWATs lingering in the 0.50-0.80" range will probably limit the size of wetting footprints and result in a fair amount of gusty virga in the mix. A disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge aloft will clip northeast NM this evening, sending cooler and moister air into the state and spreading storms a bit further south over central areas than we have seen them develop the past couple days. PWATs will increase more rapidly Tuesday through the end of the week as a moist backdoor front moves through the area followed by a rich return flow of low level moisture out of the southeast. PWATs should reach near and over 1 inch most places during the middle and latter half of the week and through the coming weekend, raising the concern for locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash flooding as scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon and evening areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 65 97 65 / 5 10 10 10 Dulce........................... 96 50 93 50 / 20 20 50 30 Cuba............................ 93 60 92 59 / 20 30 40 40 Gallup.......................... 96 56 94 57 / 20 30 40 40 El Morro........................ 91 58 90 56 / 30 50 60 50 Grants.......................... 94 59 92 58 / 30 30 60 50 Quemado......................... 92 59 92 57 / 30 50 60 50 Magdalena....................... 92 65 94 64 / 0 20 50 40 Datil........................... 90 60 90 58 / 20 30 60 50 Reserve......................... 97 57 96 57 / 50 30 60 50 Glenwood........................ 98 69 98 66 / 60 30 60 40 Chama........................... 88 52 86 50 / 40 20 70 50 Los Alamos...................... 90 65 88 62 / 30 30 70 50 Pecos........................... 91 62 90 58 / 30 30 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 89 47 87 46 / 50 40 90 60 Red River....................... 81 48 79 44 / 60 30 90 60 Angel Fire...................... 84 45 81 42 / 50 30 80 60 Taos............................ 93 54 91 52 / 30 30 70 60 Mora............................ 89 54 86 52 / 40 30 70 60 Espanola........................ 98 61 97 61 / 20 30 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 92 65 91 62 / 20 30 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 63 94 60 / 20 30 40 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 98 71 98 67 / 10 20 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 69 100 69 / 5 20 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 101 68 102 62 / 5 20 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 70 100 68 / 5 20 20 40 Belen........................... 100 65 101 65 / 0 20 20 40 Bernalillo...................... 101 68 101 66 / 10 20 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 100 65 101 62 / 0 20 20 40 Corrales........................ 100 68 101 66 / 5 20 20 40 Los Lunas....................... 100 67 101 63 / 0 20 20 40 Placitas........................ 97 68 97 65 / 10 20 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 100 69 101 68 / 5 20 20 40 Socorro......................... 101 69 103 71 / 0 10 20 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 65 91 61 / 10 20 40 40 Tijeras......................... 95 66 94 62 / 10 20 40 50 Edgewood........................ 95 60 94 59 / 10 20 40 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 58 96 58 / 10 20 30 50 Clines Corners.................. 92 60 90 57 / 10 20 40 40 Mountainair..................... 93 62 93 60 / 10 20 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 93 61 93 60 / 10 10 40 40 Carrizozo....................... 96 67 97 67 / 5 5 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 87 60 88 56 / 10 5 20 20 Capulin......................... 91 57 86 54 / 40 30 70 60 Raton........................... 95 57 91 56 / 30 20 70 60 Springer........................ 97 58 93 58 / 30 20 60 60 Las Vegas....................... 91 57 88 55 / 30 20 60 60 Clayton......................... 100 66 93 62 / 20 20 30 60 Roy............................. 96 62 92 61 / 20 20 40 60 Conchas......................... 101 68 101 66 / 10 20 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 98 66 97 64 / 5 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 102 68 101 65 / 0 10 10 30 Clovis.......................... 100 70 100 68 / 0 0 10 20 Portales........................ 100 70 100 68 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 100 68 101 68 / 0 5 10 30 Roswell......................... 103 72 104 73 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 96 65 98 65 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 93 61 95 61 / 5 0 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16