865
FXUS65 KABQ 152204
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
404 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Moisture will continue to slowly increase tonight and Tuesday,
resulting in a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Stronger storms are forecast over the
northeast quarter Tuesday afternoon and evening where torrential
rainfall and hail are possible. Numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for much of the area Wednesday through
the weekend with daily rounds of strong thunderstorms producing
heavy rainfall, hail and gusty winds. High temperatures will trend
down through the latter half of the week as more clouds and rain
move in. This pattern is not forecast to change much going into
early next week with daily rounds of numerous to widespread
showers and strong thunderstorms expected to continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An elongated area of High Pressure is currently located over north-
central NM. It`s helping to suppress some storm activity, but a few
storms have been able to break through the stable layer over the
high terrain and northeast highlands. This High can also be thanked
for the hazy conditions around the state this afternoon. Both ozone
and PM2.5 concentrations are elevated and should remain so through
the evening. This combined with the heat certainly makes it a bad
day to be outside. The isolated to scattered storm activity should
end by the evening, giving way to a mild summer night across the
forecast area.

The ridge will gradually shift southward over central NM tonight
into tomorrow, keeping temperatures hot. Once again highs will
approach 100F in Albuquerque, with mid to upper 90s in Santa Fe,
Farmington, and Clayton. The southward shift in the High will also
allow a very subtle shortwave to graze the northeastern portion of
the area tomorrow afternoon, sparking more widespread storm
coverage. Storms will cluster together as they move off the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns. The shear will be marginal for
the development of large hail so damaging outflow wind gusts will be
the main hazard as storms try to organize into a MCS. The addition
of a backdoor cold front will help add some additional low-level
convergence and will be accelerated south and westward by outflow
boundaries from convection in the eastern plains. Some hi-res models
suggest that this will aid in the development of additional showers
and storms after it surges through the gaps in the central mtn
chain. Given the less than impressive pressure gradient associated
with the backdoor front, very strong east winds appear unlikely, but
briefly gusty winds cannot be ruled in east Albuquerque with the
passage of the outflow boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Monsoon high center is forecast to get shunted westward over
northeast AZ Tuesday night by the unseasonably deep closed low in
Ontario Canada. This changes the wind direction in the mid levels
of the atmosphere over northeast NM and that makes all the
difference in low level moisture advection during this time of
year. The monsoon high continues to shift slowly westward
Wednesday, resulting in not only a steering flow change to
northerly, but increased lift in mid levels in the form of
atmospheric stretching. Stronger north and northwest winds in
eastern NM compared to light winds near the monsoon high center
act to deform or stretch the atmosphere over NM. Numerous to
widespread mainly strong thunderstorms result each afternoon,
continuing well into the late evening and potentially into the
early morning hours, particularly Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. This scenario repeats itself each day through the weekend
and into early next week. Given the increased mid level
stretching/lift and increased precipitable water (PWAT) compared
to a similar monsoon set up in 2016, heavy to torrential rainfall
is likely each afternoon over much of the forecast area. Plan for
normally dry rivers, acequias, streams, creeks, arroyos and
ditches to become rain filled muddy torrents.

.CLIMATE...
An updated monsoon outlook has been posted to
weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/2024MonsoonOutlook covering the
remainder of the monsoon --> July, August and September. A
similar pattern to the latter half of this week is forecast to
continue through much of August and into early September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor the high
terrain of western and northern New Mexico this afternoon and
evening, with gusty outflow winds up to 40KT being the main
hazard. Storm motion will be slow and erratic, except across the
northeast where will it will be easterly thanks to a weak
disturbance rounding the north side of the High that is centered
over north-central New Mexico. Some hi-res models are trying to
pick-up on an area of showers in central and east-central New
Mexico this evening between 00Z and 06Z, including along the Rio
Grande Valley. However, confidence was not high enough with this
package to include more than a mention of vicinity showers in the
TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected in the forecast
area through the next 7 days. Isolated to scattered convective
activity will trend greater the next few days as moisture surges
into the region and the ridge currently overhead shifts westward.
Before the deeper moisture arrives Tuesday night, temperatures will
remain around 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. A backdoor front
will enter from the northeast Tuesday afternoon, surging through the
gaps of the central mtn chain by the evening. There will be a high
to extreme risk of burn scar flash flooding Wednesday through the
end of the week and there are indications that the anomalously moist
airmass will stick around over the weekend into early next week as
the Monsoon Ridge remains parked over The Great Basin. Furthermore,
strong to severe storms will favor the northeastern and east-central
plains the next couple days, with the severe threat potentially
extending westward mid to late week. The high moisture content and
therefore cloud cover along with several backdoor cold front surges
will keep temperatures a few to several degrees below seasonal
averages mid week through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  97  65  96 /  10   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  52  91  50  91 /  20  30  20  70
Cuba............................  60  92  58  88 /  20  30  40  70
Gallup..........................  56  94  57  92 /  20  30  30  50
El Morro........................  57  87  58  86 /  30  50  60  80
Grants..........................  60  92  60  90 /  20  40  40  70
Quemado.........................  59  90  58  89 /  30  50  60  90
Magdalena.......................  64  92  64  89 /  10  20  30  70
Datil...........................  58  89  58  87 /  10  40  40  80
Reserve.........................  57  94  56  95 /  20  60  50  90
Glenwood........................  67  96  67  98 /  40  70  50  80
Chama...........................  52  84  50  82 /  30  50  30  90
Los Alamos......................  64  87  62  83 /  20  50  50  90
Pecos...........................  59  90  57  82 /  20  50  50  90
Cerro/Questa....................  49  86  45  80 /  40  80  60  70
Red River.......................  48  76  46  70 /  40  80  60  90
Angel Fire......................  44  80  43  72 /  30  60  50  80
Taos............................  53  91  52  85 /  30  50  40  60
Mora............................  54  85  52  77 /  30  60  40  80
Espanola........................  62  96  60  92 /  20  30  40  70
Santa Fe........................  63  90  61  85 /  20  40  50  90
Santa Fe Airport................  63  94  61  88 /  20  30  50  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  96  68  91 /  10  20  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  98  68  92 /  10  10  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  68 100  68  95 /  10  10  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  99  68  94 /  10  10  40  50
Belen...........................  66 100  67  96 /  10  10  30  40
Bernalillo......................  66  99  67  95 /  10  20  40  60
Bosque Farms....................  65  99  65  95 /  10  10  30  40
Corrales........................  66  99  67  95 /  10  10  40  60
Los Lunas.......................  65 100  66  96 /  10  10  30  40
Placitas........................  66  95  66  90 /  10  20  40  60
Rio Rancho......................  68  98  68  93 /  10  10  40  50
Socorro.........................  69 102  70  98 /   5  10  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  91  61  84 /  10  30  40  70
Tijeras.........................  65  93  62  87 /  10  30  40  70
Edgewood........................  60  92  59  86 /  10  30  30  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  93  58  87 /  10  30  40  60
Clines Corners..................  59  89  57  82 /  10  40  40  70
Mountainair.....................  62  92  59  88 /  10  20  30  60
Gran Quivira....................  61  92  59  89 /  10  30  30  70
Carrizozo.......................  67  96  67  92 /   5  10  20  60
Ruidoso.........................  60  88  59  83 /   0  20  20  70
Capulin.........................  58  86  56  75 /  30  70  60  80
Raton...........................  57  91  56  80 /  30  60  40  80
Springer........................  58  93  58  82 /  20  60  40  80
Las Vegas.......................  58  86  56  78 /  20  50  40  90
Clayton.........................  65  95  62  81 /  30  40  50  60
Roy.............................  63  92  60  81 /  20  40  50  70
Conchas.........................  67  99  66  90 /  10  10  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  66  96  65  88 /  10  20  40  50
Tucumcari.......................  68 100  65  89 /   5   5  30  30
Clovis..........................  69  99  68  91 /   0   5  20  40
Portales........................  69  99  68  93 /   0   5  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  68  99  68  93 /   0   5  20  30
Roswell.........................  71 103  73 100 /   0   0   5  20
Picacho.........................  65  96  65  93 /   0  10  10  40
Elk.............................  61  92  61  90 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...33