875
FXUS65 KABQ 172342 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An active Monsoon pattern will generate widespread to numerous
showers and storms each afternoon and evening through at least early
next week. Heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding over
recent burn scars, although several instances of flash flooding are
expected elsewhere as well. Temperatures are expected to be near to
slightly below average each afternoon through the middle of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Widespread showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage
through the afternoon and evening as daytime heating destabilizes
the atmosphere. Storm motion has been very slow thus far, but should
begin to move faster as they build-up and reach the modest
northwesterly steering flow above the weak subsidence inversion at
around 400mb. Mesoanalysis does indicate that there is about 30KT of
bulk shear across the northeast corner of the state, so hail up to
quarter inch diameter cannot be ruled out in Union County. The
greatest coverage of severe storms will be in the central mtn chain
and adjacent highlands due to a combination of moist upslope flow
and a shortwave that will provide a large-scale forcing mechanism.
As storms cluster together in this region, they will try to organize
into an MCS that will move south/southeast. Damaging outflow wind
gusts and heavy rainfall are likely with this feature, but the good
news is that it will be moving quickly as it becomes outflow
dominant, mitigating the flash flood threat to some extent. Burn
scar flash flooding is still likely over the Sacramento complex
despite this fast storm motion. Recent runs of hi-res models have
backed off the development of convection along the Rio Grande Valley
this evening, but the potential for heavy rainfall persists as
outflow boundaries collide and produce updrafts. As previously
advertised, storms are expected to persist well into the overnight
hours, not ending until around sunrise in the southeastern portion
of the CWA.

Despite the long-duration event tonight, hi-res models are trying to
initiation convection very early Thursday along the east slopes of
the central mtn chain. Even if convective initiation is delayed,
storms with heavy rainfall rates are expected to develop during the
mid-afternoon, impacting all the sensitive burn scars. Therefore,
another Flash Flood Watch was issued for the burn scar areas for
tomorrow afternoon through the night. Confidence in another round of
late night convection tomorrow is moderate. The center of the
Monsoon High is progged to be located over central AZ by tomorrow
afternoon, placing all of New Mexico under northerly steering flow.
Storms will likely cluster together as they move south, impacting
many of the same areas that will see heavy rainfall today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The active Monsoon pattern is expected to continue late this week
through the early portion of next week. The Monsoon High will
gradually shift westward late week, keeping northerly steering
flow entrenched over New Mexico. Rounds of widespread to numerous
showers and storms are likely, continuing the high threat of burn
scar flash flooding. Since storms will develop over the high
terrain and move south each afternoon and evening, the same
locations will see heavy rainfall each day, elevating the flash
flood risk in these areas. Another backdoor front is expected to
recharge moisture across the region Saturday evening into Sunday,
pushing PWATs over 1.2" in KABQ. Moisture may gradually trend down
Sunday through Wednesday, but will still be enough for widespread
to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and evening. By
then, several inches of rainfall and saturated soils will be
enough to prime areas for additional flooding.

Around the middle of next week, model guidance begins to diverge
with regard to the synoptic scale pattern. Some suggest that the
Monsoon High will remain in place over The Great Basin, continuing
the current pattern. Others suggest that the Monsoon High will
weaken and retreat southwestward, which may allow some drier air to
infiltrate from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered to numerous storms will persist through the evening
hours, with a downtrend thereafter across western NM and the
potential for storms to persist overnight across eastern NM.
Short-lived MVFR conditions can be expected in/near storms both
tonight and Thursday, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
A gusty east canyon wind is forecast this evening at KABQ due to
thunderstorm outflow and some convective cold pooling across the
eastern highlands/plains. Gusts to between 35-40kts will be
common. Look for a repeat Thursday, with thunderstorm impacts
likely at KLVS and KSAF prior to the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An active pattern will result in widespread to afternoon showers
and storms each afternoon and evening through at least early next
week. While the heaviest rainfall will focus along the central mtn
chain, wetting rainfall is expected across the entire area.
Rainfall rates up to 2"/hour will continue to create a high risk
of burn scar flash flooding. Temperatures will trend lower mid to
late week as a result of increased cloud and storm coverage. Gusty
outflow winds and even wet microbursts are possible with storms
each afternoon, with the greatest likelihood along and east of the
central mtn chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  93  65  94 /  20  20  20  20
Dulce...........................  52  87  51  88 /  40  60  40  70
Cuba............................  57  85  57  87 /  60  60  60  60
Gallup..........................  59  89  56  89 /  40  60  30  50
El Morro........................  58  84  57  84 /  60  80  70  80
Grants..........................  59  86  58  87 /  60  80  60  70
Quemado.........................  60  85  59  85 /  60  90  60  90
Magdalena.......................  62  85  62  86 /  60  70  50  80
Datil...........................  59  82  57  82 /  60  90  60  90
Reserve.........................  59  89  57  89 /  50  90  50  90
Glenwood........................  68  93  67  92 /  50  90  50  90
Chama...........................  50  79  49  80 /  50  70  50  90
Los Alamos......................  59  81  60  83 /  60  70  50  80
Pecos...........................  57  80  57  83 /  70  80  60  80
Cerro/Questa....................  48  80  47  83 /  60  80  60  90
Red River.......................  46  72  47  73 /  60  90  60  90
Angel Fire......................  46  74  45  76 /  70  90  60  90
Taos............................  53  83  53  86 /  60  70  50  70
Mora............................  52  78  52  81 /  80  80  50  80
Espanola........................  59  88  60  91 /  60  60  40  60
Santa Fe........................  59  82  60  85 /  70  70  50  80
Santa Fe Airport................  59  85  60  88 /  60  50  50  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  88  66  91 /  60  60  60  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  91  66  92 /  60  40  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  93  65  94 /  60  30  60  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  91  66  93 /  60  40  60  30
Belen...........................  66  93  64  95 /  50  40  60  40
Bernalillo......................  64  92  65  94 /  60  40  50  40
Bosque Farms....................  65  93  64  94 /  60  40  60  30
Corrales........................  65  92  65  94 /  60  40  60  40
Los Lunas.......................  66  93  65  94 /  60  40  60  30
Placitas........................  63  88  63  90 /  60  50  50  60
Rio Rancho......................  65  91  66  93 /  60  40  60  40
Socorro.........................  68  94  67  95 /  50  60  60  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  83  60  85 /  60  60  50  70
Tijeras.........................  60  85  61  88 /  60  60  50  70
Edgewood........................  57  85  57  87 /  60  60  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  86  55  88 /  60  50  50  60
Clines Corners..................  56  80  56  83 /  70  60  70  70
Mountainair.....................  59  85  58  86 /  60  60  70  60
Gran Quivira....................  60  85  59  86 /  60  70  70  70
Carrizozo.......................  65  87  64  89 /  50  70  60  70
Ruidoso.........................  58  77  58  79 /  50  80  50  80
Capulin.........................  55  78  54  83 /  40  60  40  60
Raton...........................  55  82  54  86 /  40  60  30  60
Springer........................  57  84  55  88 /  60  70  40  70
Las Vegas.......................  55  78  55  82 /  70  80  50  80
Clayton.........................  62  84  61  90 /  40  40  30  30
Roy.............................  59  80  59  85 /  70  60  50  50
Conchas.........................  65  88  64  93 /  70  40  50  30
Santa Rosa......................  64  85  63  90 /  70  50  60  40
Tucumcari.......................  64  87  64  93 /  60  20  40  10
Clovis..........................  66  85  66  91 /  60  40  20  20
Portales........................  66  86  66  92 /  70  40  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  67  88  66  93 /  80  30  60  20
Roswell.........................  71  91  70  96 /  40  40  30  20
Picacho.........................  65  85  63  89 /  40  60  40  50
Elk.............................  60  82  59  86 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ211>215-217>229-231>237-
239.

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for NMZ211-214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11