354
FXUS65 KABQ 202335 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The weekend will remain active with numerous showers and
thunderstorms continuing through the overnight hours tonight, and
then re-developing again on Sunday afternoon and continuing
through Sunday night. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and small hail
will be a concern with the strongest storms. Urban areas and burn
scars will be the most susceptible to rapid runoff and flash
flooding. Less activity is expected for Monday, but storm coverage
will begin to ramp up again during the middle of the week.
Temperatures will trend downward Sunday and Monday, especially
across eastern New Mexico, due to the precipitation and cloud
cover, but will trend back up starting Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today`s crop of showers and thunderstorms are underway. Storms are
generally moving toward the south around 5 to 10 mph, though may
be somewhat erratic with outflows. Heavy rainfall is falling
across the Sacramento Mountain complex of burn scars with flooding
ongoing. Across northern NM, storms have been pulsey, but they
will continue to expand and potentially intensify this afternoon
and evening. A few strong or severe storms remain possible across
northeast and east central NM. Storms will continue well into the
evening hours, with areas around Ruidoso potentially receiving
another round of precipitation overnight, though rain rates may
not be as high as this afternoon. The 12Z ABQ sounding showed a
PWAT value of 1.11" which is above the 90th percentile for the
date. Thus, even short-lived storms will produce quite a bit of
rainfall.

There may only be a short break between when the remaining
overnight/early morning showers end and when Sunday`s round of
thunderstorms begin. Storms are expected to develop around the
noon hour across the high terrain with weak moist easterly
upslope. A shortwave will also be sliding southward on the east
side of the upper high across the eastern CO and into eastern NM.
This will result in a rapid increase of shower and thunderstorm
activity across north central and northeast NM during the
afternoon which will translate southward through the evening and
overnight hours. Given the additional forcing and PW`s still
around the 90th percentile, these storms could have excessive
rainfall rates, and it may be a relatively large complex of
storms. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Sunday
afternoon through the overnight hours for much of central and
eastern NM as well as the Southwest Mountains. Gusty outflow winds
will also be possible along the leading edge of these storms.
In the evening, should see a cold pool develop with less in the
way of thunderstorms but continued rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Showers may linger well into the overnight Sunday night and into
Monday morning across the southeast third to half of the CWA. The
potential good news, at least for those who need a break from the
flooding, is that the complex of storms should stabilize much of
central and eastern NM for Monday. Thus, PoPs have been
significantly reduced for these areas during the afternoon. It
only takes one storm to cause issues though, so there is still
some potential for flooding. The focus for storms will instead be
across western NM and the northern mountains where the atmosphere
either won`t be as worked over or will have had time to recover.
Tuesday appears to be a typical monsoon day with storms firing
over the high terrain in the afternoon and diminishing during the
evening hours. Storm coverage will ramp back up on Wednesday and
storm motions may become more southwesterly as the upper high
elongates from SoCal to western CO. A short-wave will move over
the northern side of the upper high during the latter part of the
week, thereby weakening the high. Models are not that excited
about storm coverage on Thursday, but with H5 heights lowering
several decameters, a more active day may return for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
in sct/num showers and storms which will bring MVFR conditions and
the potential for very short-lived IFR conditions in torrential
downpours. Convection east of the Sandia/Manzano Mountains is
forecast to send outflow west into the ABQ Metro this evening,
funneling through Tijeras Canyon and creating a strong east canyon
wind at KABQ with gusts to between 35-40kts likely. Storms will be
very slow to diminish overnight and Sunday will be another active
day, especially late in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
next week and no critical fire weather conditions are expected.
Locally heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding, and burn
scars will be especially susceptible. Storm coverage will be
lowest on Monday but will increase again Tue/Wed. Storm motions
will be toward the south around 5 to 15 mph with some erratic
behavior in the vicinity of outflow boundaries. Storm motion may
become more to the southwest late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  89  63  90 /  40  30  30  20
Dulce...........................  49  83  46  82 /  50  90  50  50
Cuba............................  55  79  52  78 /  60  70  70  50
Gallup..........................  60  85  55  87 /  60  60  40  50
El Morro........................  58  78  54  80 /  70  90  80  60
Grants..........................  60  80  56  82 /  70  60  70  30
Quemado.........................  57  81  55  82 /  80  80  90  50
Magdalena.......................  60  79  58  78 /  80  70  90  30
Datil...........................  56  77  55  77 /  80  80  80  40
Reserve.........................  55  85  54  87 /  80  90  90  50
Glenwood........................  64  88  65  89 /  70  90  90  60
Chama...........................  47  74  43  73 /  60  90  70  80
Los Alamos......................  58  75  56  74 /  60  80  80  60
Pecos...........................  56  73  52  71 /  60  80  90  70
Cerro/Questa....................  44  74  42  74 /  80  90  80  60
Red River.......................  44  65  41  64 /  80  90  80  70
Angel Fire......................  42  67  39  67 /  60  90  80  70
Taos............................  52  78  48  77 /  60  80  80  50
Mora............................  49  70  47  69 /  60  90  90  70
Espanola........................  58  84  56  82 /  50  70  80  40
Santa Fe........................  59  76  56  75 /  60  70  90  60
Santa Fe Airport................  58  79  55  78 /  60  70  80  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  82  62  82 /  90  60  90  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  84  62  84 /  80  60  80  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  86  62  85 /  80  50  80  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  84  63  84 /  90  50  80  30
Belen...........................  63  85  61  85 /  90  70  90  20
Bernalillo......................  64  85  61  85 /  90  60  80  30
Bosque Farms....................  61  85  60  85 /  80  70  80  20
Corrales........................  64  85  62  85 /  90  50  80  30
Los Lunas.......................  63  85  62  85 /  80  70  90  20
Placitas........................  61  81  59  80 /  90  60  80  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  84  62  84 /  90  50  80  30
Socorro.........................  65  86  64  86 /  90  70  80  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  76  55  74 /  80  70  80  40
Tijeras.........................  59  79  56  77 /  80  60  80  40
Edgewood........................  55  78  53  75 /  60  60  80  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  78  52  76 /  60  60  90  30
Clines Corners..................  54  73  51  71 /  70  70  90  40
Mountainair.....................  56  77  53  74 /  70  80  90  30
Gran Quivira....................  57  77  54  75 /  80  90  90  30
Carrizozo.......................  62  80  59  79 /  80  90  90  40
Ruidoso.........................  55  71  54  68 /  70  90  90  60
Capulin.........................  53  70  50  69 /  80  90  70  50
Raton...........................  54  75  51  76 /  80  90  70  40
Springer........................  56  77  54  76 /  90  90  80  40
Las Vegas.......................  54  71  51  70 /  60  90  90  60
Clayton.........................  60  77  56  77 /  70  80  60  30
Roy.............................  57  75  55  72 /  80  90  80  40
Conchas.........................  62  82  59  77 /  70  80  90  30
Santa Rosa......................  62  79  57  73 /  70  70  90  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  82  58  79 /  50  70  80  40
Clovis..........................  65  83  62  78 /  50  60  80  50
Portales........................  65  83  62  77 /  50  50  80  50
Fort Sumner.....................  65  83  61  77 /  70  50  80  40
Roswell.........................  69  87  66  82 /  70  70  90  60
Picacho.........................  62  79  60  75 /  80  90  90  50
Elk.............................  58  76  55  74 /  70  90  90  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ206>208-210>224-226>233-
237-239>241.

Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
NMZ208>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11