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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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985 FXUS65 KABQ 182120 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 320 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Flash flooding concerns will take center stage the next several days as rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms impact central and northern New Mexico. Temperatures will trend cooler this weekend into early next week thanks to increasing cloud coverage and another backdoor front. The active Monsoon pattern is expected to continue through at least the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Scattered showers and storms that have developed thus far have been confined to the high terrain, but expecting coverage to increase in the lower elevations the next several hours as storms drift south/southeast of the high terrain at around 5-10KT. Subsidence around the 700mb layer has limited convective activity over the Sacramento complex of burn scars thus far this afternoon, but mesoanalysis hints that destabilization is imminent in the area. Most of the eastern plains has a marginal risk for severe storms today. The environment is notably more unstable than yesterday as a result of increased low-level moisture advection and bulk shear of 15-30KT should be sufficient to organize some of the updrafts that are coming off the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns. Slow storm motion will support an isolated flash flood threat in eastern NM as well this afternoon and evening. Clusters of storms and colliding outflow boundaries will create a spike in storm coverage between 5 and 9PM, with both coverage and intensity decreasing thereafter. This morning`s sounding at KABQ had a PWAT about 0.1" greater than yesterday, suggesting slightly more efficient rainfall if a storm does pop up in the ABQ metro area. The Flash Flood Watch will likely be expired early for most zones, with the highest confidence for those north of I-40. Friday afternoon`s round of showers and storms will be very similar to today`s with storms slowly moving southward off the high terrain into the lower elevations. Another Flash Flood Watch was issued for recent burn scar areas, which may be extended to include a few other zones that receive significant rainfall today and tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 This weekend is looking very active with rounds of showers and storms and a high to extreme risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars. Confidence is high that the Monsoon High will gradually shift westward this weekend, allowing deeper moisture to surge in from the east. On top of that, a shortwave will provide the lift to create more widespread convection than previous days. The main corridor of heavy rainfall will focus over central NM from the CO border southward to the Mexico border. With forcing from the aformentioned shortwave, storms may persist well into the overnight hours. The vigorous convection will help to push moisture even further west, setting the stage for another active day Sunday. Some locations may see in excess of 4" of rainfall between now and the end of the weekend. Since steering flow will not change much from day to day, some locations could see flash flooding several days in a row. With significant cloud cover and rounds of showers and storms, high temps will generally run 5 to as much as 15 degrees below average over the weekend. With little change to the synoptic pattern, active weather is expected to continue into early next week. Heights are forecast to continue to decrease so temperatures may actually continue to trend down Monday and Tuesday. While some models try to dry out the state late next week, the consensus is that anomalously high moisture will remain in place over the state as we head into the heart of Monsoon season. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cumulus has already begun to develop over mountain peaks so expecting convection to initiate soon and increase in coverage through the afternoon. Storms will generally move towards the SSE at 5-10KT although erratic motion is possible, especially across the west. Gusty outflow winds will be commonplace, with some very strong winds possible with storms in the northeast and east- central plains. Storm coverage will decrease after 04Z, except south of I-40 and east of I-25 where showers and storms could linger as late as 09Z. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible under heavier showers and storms. MVFR conditions may develop east of the central mtn chain late tonight after storms have ended, but confidence is low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Numerous showers and storms the next several days are expected around the region with the greatest coverage over the western and northern high terrain. Each day, storms will develop over the high terrain and drift southward at around 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hour will create several instances of flash flooding each afternoon and evening, particularly over recent burn scars. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning are all expected and some storms could become severe east of the central mtn chain each of the next few days. Temperatures will trend lower this weekend into early next week as moisture gets recharged, allowing for a continuation of the active Monsoon pattern. At least widespread showers and storms are likely through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 95 64 93 / 20 20 20 30 Dulce........................... 52 89 48 86 / 30 60 40 80 Cuba............................ 57 89 56 84 / 50 50 50 80 Gallup.......................... 58 91 55 89 / 30 40 40 50 El Morro........................ 57 84 56 82 / 60 60 70 80 Grants.......................... 59 89 58 85 / 70 50 60 70 Quemado......................... 59 87 58 86 / 80 70 70 80 Magdalena....................... 62 87 63 85 / 60 60 60 80 Datil........................... 57 84 58 82 / 80 80 70 90 Reserve......................... 58 91 57 90 / 50 80 60 80 Glenwood........................ 66 93 69 93 / 70 80 60 80 Chama........................... 51 80 48 78 / 30 80 50 90 Los Alamos...................... 60 83 60 80 / 40 70 60 90 Pecos........................... 56 85 57 79 / 70 70 60 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 83 43 77 / 50 80 60 90 Red River....................... 47 72 45 68 / 70 90 60 90 Angel Fire...................... 45 76 42 71 / 60 80 50 90 Taos............................ 53 86 51 81 / 50 60 50 80 Mora............................ 52 80 51 75 / 40 80 50 90 Espanola........................ 61 91 60 87 / 40 40 60 80 Santa Fe........................ 60 85 59 80 / 50 50 70 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 89 59 84 / 50 40 60 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 90 66 87 / 50 40 70 70 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 93 66 90 / 50 30 60 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 95 66 92 / 50 30 60 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 94 66 90 / 50 30 60 60 Belen........................... 66 94 66 91 / 50 30 60 50 Bernalillo...................... 65 94 65 91 / 50 30 60 60 Bosque Farms.................... 65 94 65 92 / 50 30 60 50 Corrales........................ 66 94 65 91 / 50 30 60 60 Los Lunas....................... 66 94 66 92 / 50 30 60 50 Placitas........................ 63 90 63 87 / 50 40 60 70 Rio Rancho...................... 66 93 65 90 / 50 30 60 60 Socorro......................... 67 96 67 93 / 50 40 50 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 60 81 / 60 40 60 70 Tijeras......................... 61 87 61 84 / 50 40 70 70 Edgewood........................ 58 87 55 83 / 60 40 60 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 88 53 84 / 60 50 60 70 Clines Corners.................. 56 84 56 80 / 60 70 60 70 Mountainair..................... 58 86 56 83 / 60 50 60 70 Gran Quivira.................... 58 87 56 84 / 80 60 70 70 Carrizozo....................... 64 88 63 86 / 60 50 50 70 Ruidoso......................... 58 80 57 78 / 60 70 50 80 Capulin......................... 55 82 55 76 / 50 50 50 60 Raton........................... 55 87 55 81 / 40 50 40 70 Springer........................ 55 87 56 83 / 40 60 40 70 Las Vegas....................... 55 81 54 77 / 50 70 50 80 Clayton......................... 62 89 62 85 / 40 20 40 30 Roy............................. 60 84 59 82 / 60 40 50 70 Conchas......................... 65 92 64 89 / 60 20 50 50 Santa Rosa...................... 63 90 62 87 / 70 40 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 64 92 63 90 / 50 10 40 40 Clovis.......................... 66 92 66 90 / 30 20 30 50 Portales........................ 67 92 66 90 / 30 20 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 66 92 65 91 / 50 20 40 50 Roswell......................... 71 97 71 94 / 20 20 30 40 Picacho......................... 64 89 63 86 / 40 50 40 70 Elk............................. 61 84 59 82 / 40 70 40 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ211-212-214-215-222>224- 226-228-229-231>234-237-239. Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for NMZ211-214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16