695
FXUS65 KABQ 190537 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Showers and storms have pushed southward, generally south of I-40
and rainfall intensities have lessened considerable. Therefore, a
large swath of the Flood Watch for today has been cancelled,
leaving just the South-Central Highlands and Mountains under a
Flood Watch.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Flash flooding concerns will take center stage the next several days
as rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms impact central
and northern New Mexico. Temperatures will trend cooler this weekend
into early next week thanks to increasing cloud coverage and another
backdoor front. The active Monsoon pattern is expected to continue
through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered showers and storms that have developed thus far have been
confined to the high terrain, but expecting coverage to increase in
the lower elevations the next several hours as storms drift
south/southeast of the high terrain at around 5-10KT. Subsidence
around the 700mb layer has limited convective activity over the
Sacramento complex of burn scars thus far this afternoon, but
mesoanalysis hints that destabilization is imminent in the area.

Most of the eastern plains has a marginal risk for severe storms
today. The environment is notably more unstable than yesterday as a
result of increased low-level moisture advection and bulk shear of
15-30KT should be sufficient to organize some of the updrafts that
are coming off the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mtns. Slow
storm motion will support an isolated flash flood threat in eastern
NM as well this afternoon and evening. Clusters of storms and
colliding outflow boundaries will create a spike in storm coverage
between 5 and 9PM, with both coverage and intensity decreasing
thereafter. This morning`s sounding at KABQ had a PWAT about 0.1"
greater than yesterday, suggesting slightly more efficient rainfall
if a storm does pop up in the ABQ metro area. The Flash Flood Watch
will likely be expired early for most zones, with the highest
confidence for those north of I-40.

Friday afternoon`s round of showers and storms will be very similar
to today`s with storms slowly moving southward off the high terrain
into the lower elevations. Another Flash Flood Watch was issued for
recent burn scar areas, which may be extended to include a few other
zones that receive significant rainfall today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

This weekend is looking very active with rounds of showers and
storms and a high to extreme risk of flash flooding over recent burn
scars. Confidence is high that the Monsoon High will gradually shift
westward this weekend, allowing deeper moisture to surge in from the
east. On top of that, a shortwave will provide the lift to create
more widespread convection than previous days. The main corridor of
heavy rainfall will focus over central NM from the CO border
southward to the Mexico border.  With forcing from the aformentioned
shortwave, storms may persist well into the overnight hours. The
vigorous convection will help to push moisture even further west,
setting the stage for another active day Sunday. Some locations may
see in excess of 4" of rainfall between now and the end of the
weekend. Since steering flow will not change much from day to day,
some locations could see flash flooding several days in a row. With
significant cloud cover and rounds of showers and storms, high temps
will generally run 5 to as much as 15 degrees below average over the
weekend.

With little change to the synoptic pattern, active weather is
expected to continue into early next week. Heights are forecast to
continue to decrease so temperatures may actually continue to trend
down Monday and Tuesday. While some models try to dry out the state
late next week, the consensus is that anomalously high moisture will
remain in place over the state as we head into the heart of Monsoon
season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The remaining SHRA/TS are moving south across Socorro and Lincoln
counties late this evening with sprinkles possible elsewhere. The
latest forecast guidance has backed off on the coverage of MVFR
low cigs over the region tonight, except perhaps the Caprock and
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Otherwise, a quiet night
is in store. SHRA/TS will initiate over the northern and central
high terrain by 1pm then move south again into nearby highlands
and valleys thru the late afternoon and evening. Direct hits will
be capable of producing brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Numerous showers and storms the next several days are expected
around the region with the greatest coverage over the western and
northern high terrain. Each day, storms will develop over the high
terrain and drift southward at around 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall rates in
excess of 2"/hour will create several instances of flash flooding
each afternoon and evening, particularly over recent burn scars.
Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning are
all expected and some storms could become severe east of the central
mtn chain each of the next few days. Temperatures will trend lower
this weekend into early next week as moisture gets recharged,
allowing for a continuation of the active Monsoon pattern. At least
widespread showers and storms are likely through the middle of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  95  64  93 /  20  20  20  30
Dulce...........................  52  89  48  86 /  30  60  40  80
Cuba............................  57  89  56  84 /  50  50  50  80
Gallup..........................  58  91  55  89 /  30  40  40  50
El Morro........................  57  84  56  82 /  60  60  70  80
Grants..........................  59  89  58  85 /  70  50  60  70
Quemado.........................  59  87  58  86 /  80  70  70  80
Magdalena.......................  62  87  63  85 /  60  60  60  80
Datil...........................  57  84  58  82 /  80  80  70  90
Reserve.........................  58  91  57  90 /  50  80  60  80
Glenwood........................  66  93  69  93 /  70  80  60  80
Chama...........................  51  80  48  78 /  30  80  50  90
Los Alamos......................  60  83  60  80 /  40  70  60  90
Pecos...........................  56  85  57  79 /  70  70  60  90
Cerro/Questa....................  50  83  43  77 /  50  80  60  90
Red River.......................  47  72  45  68 /  70  90  60  90
Angel Fire......................  45  76  42  71 /  60  80  50  90
Taos............................  53  86  51  81 /  50  60  50  80
Mora............................  52  80  51  75 /  40  80  50  90
Espanola........................  61  91  60  87 /  40  40  60  80
Santa Fe........................  60  85  59  80 /  50  50  70  80
Santa Fe Airport................  60  89  59  84 /  50  40  60  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  90  66  87 /  50  40  70  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  93  66  90 /  50  30  60  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  66  92 /  50  30  60  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  94  66  90 /  50  30  60  60
Belen...........................  66  94  66  91 /  50  30  60  50
Bernalillo......................  65  94  65  91 /  50  30  60  60
Bosque Farms....................  65  94  65  92 /  50  30  60  50
Corrales........................  66  94  65  91 /  50  30  60  60
Los Lunas.......................  66  94  66  92 /  50  30  60  50
Placitas........................  63  90  63  87 /  50  40  60  70
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  65  90 /  50  30  60  60
Socorro.........................  67  96  67  93 /  50  40  50  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  85  60  81 /  60  40  60  70
Tijeras.........................  61  87  61  84 /  50  40  70  70
Edgewood........................  58  87  55  83 /  60  40  60  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  88  53  84 /  60  50  60  70
Clines Corners..................  56  84  56  80 /  60  70  60  70
Mountainair.....................  58  86  56  83 /  60  50  60  70
Gran Quivira....................  58  87  56  84 /  80  60  70  70
Carrizozo.......................  64  88  63  86 /  60  50  50  70
Ruidoso.........................  58  80  57  78 /  60  70  50  80
Capulin.........................  55  82  55  76 /  50  50  50  60
Raton...........................  55  87  55  81 /  40  50  40  70
Springer........................  55  87  56  83 /  40  60  40  70
Las Vegas.......................  55  81  54  77 /  50  70  50  80
Clayton.........................  62  89  62  85 /  40  20  40  30
Roy.............................  60  84  59  82 /  60  40  50  70
Conchas.........................  65  92  64  89 /  60  20  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  62  87 /  70  40  50  50
Tucumcari.......................  64  92  63  90 /  50  10  40  40
Clovis..........................  66  92  66  90 /  30  20  30  50
Portales........................  67  92  66  90 /  30  20  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  66  92  65  91 /  50  20  40  50
Roswell.........................  71  97  71  94 /  20  20  30  40
Picacho.........................  64  89  63  86 /  40  50  40  70
Elk.............................  61  84  59  82 /  40  70  40  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
NMZ211-214-215-226-229.

Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ224-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42