226
FXUS65 KABQ 190844
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
244 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A Flood Watch is in effect again today for storms
producing locally heavy rainfall. Burn scar areas will be at risk
first where storms develop over the mountains, before generally
moving south and spreading out over surrounding lower elevations
late afternoon and evening. This general weather pattern will
persist each day well into next week, threatening flash flooding
where locally heavy rainfall occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Model H5 streamlines and 00Z RAOBs showed the monsoon high center
drifted west to between Flagstaff and Phoenix overnight. Forecast
guidance indicates this high will move very little today with north/
south steering flow to continue over NM. A near-repeat is expected
again today with showers and storms initiating over the northern and
central high terrain before 1pm. Another Flash Flood Watch has been
posted for burn scars and the nearby highlands of central NM where
heavy rainfall has occurred the past few days. The 00Z HREF still
indicates the 24-hr max QPF potential above 2" from the strongest
cells within the watch area. The Gila region has also seen heavy
rainfall the past few days and this area may be favorable again
today based on the higher NBM QPF probabilities. Showers and storms
will develop into the RGV by late afternoon and evening then taper
off along and south of U.S. 60 overnight.

Saturday is still expected to feature an increase in the coverage of
storms with torrential rainfall. An upper level shortwave moving off
the Front Range late tonight will help force a convectively-aided
backdoor front into eastern NM Saturday morning. This front will
serve as an additional triggering mechanism for storms with very
heavy rainfall along the central mt chain and nearby highlands.
A larger Flash Flood Watch is likely to cover this heightened risk,
potentially including the RGV and Gila region. Given the stronger
flow aloft in the wake of the upper shortwave there may be greater
coverage of strong to potentially severe storms over northern and
eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There`s little change to the forecast in the long term
period beginning Saturday night and persisting well into next week
as the monsoon high remains centered over the Great Basin and
northerly flow aloft over CO and NM with an upper level troughing
pattern over the Great Plains. Saturday night storms look to track
south and coalesce once again over the central swath of the forecast
area, advancing south of U.S. Hwy 70 by late evening and the
midnight hour. Global model solutions are still resolving a subtle
change in the weather pattern Sunday with a shortwave perturbation
embedded within the northerly flow aloft working its way over
northeastern NM. This feature will help enhance convective potential
over northeastern NM, extending out from the Sangre de Cristo Mts.
Otherwise, thunderstorm activity will follow a similar pattern we`ve
seen in recent days favoring development over the high terrain
before spreading and track southward over adjacent lower elevation
areas late day and evening.

This pattern continues Monday through Wednesday. Storm chances look
to start trending down a tad by Tuesday and Wednesday as a sharp
trough embedded within the polar jet moving into the PacNW begins to
squish the monsoon high a bit. This may not even be a noticeable
effect on the overall sensible weather pattern however. Abundant
monsoon moisture, highlighted by PWATs of 0.90" to 1.20" will
continue to support moisture rich thunderstorms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall that threatens flash flooding. 5-Day to 7-Day
rainfall totals continue to feature 3 to 6 inches of total rainfall
for areas along and adjacent to the central mountain chain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The remaining SHRA/TS are moving south across Socorro and Lincoln
counties late this evening with sprinkles possible elsewhere. The
latest forecast guidance has backed off on the coverage of MVFR
low cigs over the region tonight, except perhaps the Caprock and
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Otherwise, a quiet night
is in store. SHRA/TS will initiate over the northern and central
high terrain by 1pm then move south again into nearby highlands
and valleys thru the late afternoon and evening. Direct hits will
be capable of producing brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in heavy rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next
7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will continue each day through the middle of next week. Storm motion
will be generally north to south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  66  94  63 /  20  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  89  51  87  48 /  60  40  80  70
Cuba............................  89  57  86  54 /  60  50  80  80
Gallup..........................  91  57  90  54 /  50  50  60  50
El Morro........................  83  57  83  55 /  70  60  80  80
Grants..........................  88  59  86  58 /  60  60  80  80
Quemado.........................  87  59  87  58 /  90  70  90  90
Magdalena.......................  86  63  86  60 /  70  70  90  80
Datil...........................  84  57  83  57 /  80  60  90  80
Reserve.........................  90  59  91  56 /  80  60  90  80
Glenwood........................  93  68  94  67 /  80  50  90  80
Chama...........................  81  49  78  46 /  70  50  90  80
Los Alamos......................  84  60  81  59 /  70  50  90  80
Pecos...........................  85  56  80  56 /  70  50  90  80
Cerro/Questa....................  83  47  79  43 /  70  50  90  80
Red River.......................  74  45  68  43 /  80  50  90  80
Angel Fire......................  77  43  72  41 /  80  50  90  70
Taos............................  87  52  83  51 /  60  50  90  70
Mora............................  81  51  76  49 /  80  50  90  80
Espanola........................  92  60  90  58 /  50  50  80  80
Santa Fe........................  86  59  81  59 /  60  60  90  80
Santa Fe Airport................  90  60  85  58 /  50  50  80  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  89  64 /  50  70  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  67  90  64 /  40  60  60  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  67  92  64 /  30  60  60  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  67  92  65 /  40  60  70  80
Belen...........................  94  66  93  62 /  40  60  60  80
Bernalillo......................  94  65  92  64 /  40  60  70  80
Bosque Farms....................  94  64  92  61 /  30  60  60  80
Corrales........................  94  65  92  64 /  40  60  70  80
Los Lunas.......................  94  65  92  63 /  30  60  60  80
Placitas........................  90  64  88  62 /  50  60  80  80
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  91  64 /  40  60  70  80
Socorro.........................  96  68  96  66 /  50  60  70  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  60  82  58 /  50  60  80  80
Tijeras.........................  90  61  87  58 /  50  60  80  80
Edgewood........................  89  58  85  55 /  50  60  80  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  56  85  54 /  50  60  80  70
Clines Corners..................  83  56  80  54 /  70  60  80  70
Mountainair.....................  87  59  84  56 /  50  70  80  70
Gran Quivira....................  86  59  84  56 /  60  70  90  80
Carrizozo.......................  88  65  88  61 /  60  60  80  80
Ruidoso.........................  80  58  78  56 /  70  50  90  80
Capulin.........................  84  55  77  52 /  60  50  70  40
Raton...........................  87  55  83  53 /  60  40  80  40
Springer........................  89  56  84  56 /  60  40  80  50
Las Vegas.......................  82  54  78  53 /  70  50  90  70
Clayton.........................  91  61  86  60 /  30  50  40  20
Roy.............................  86  60  83  58 /  50  60  70  60
Conchas.........................  93  65  89  63 /  30  60  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  90  64  86  61 /  50  60  60  70
Tucumcari.......................  92  65  90  62 /  20  50  40  40
Clovis..........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  40  50  50
Portales........................  92  66  91  66 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Sumner.....................  92  67  91  65 /  30  50  50  60
Roswell.........................  96  72  95  70 /  20  30  50  60
Picacho.........................  89  65  87  62 /  60  40  80  70
Elk.............................  85  61  84  58 /  70  40  90  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ211-
212-214-215-222>224-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42