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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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919 FXUS65 KABQ 191736 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1136 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A Flood Watch is in effect again today for storms producing locally heavy rainfall. Burn scar areas will be at risk first where storms develop over the mountains, before generally moving south and spreading out over surrounding lower elevations late afternoon and evening. This general weather pattern will persist each day well into next week, threatening flash flooding where locally heavy rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Model H5 streamlines and 00Z RAOBs showed the monsoon high center drifted west to between Flagstaff and Phoenix overnight. Forecast guidance indicates this high will move very little today with north/ south steering flow to continue over NM. A near-repeat is expected again today with showers and storms initiating over the northern and central high terrain before 1pm. Another Flash Flood Watch has been posted for burn scars and the nearby highlands of central NM where heavy rainfall has occurred the past few days. The 00Z HREF still indicates the 24-hr max QPF potential above 2" from the strongest cells within the watch area. The Gila region has also seen heavy rainfall the past few days and this area may be favorable again today based on the higher NBM QPF probabilities. Showers and storms will develop into the RGV by late afternoon and evening then taper off along and south of U.S. 60 overnight. Saturday is still expected to feature an increase in the coverage of storms with torrential rainfall. An upper level shortwave moving off the Front Range late tonight will help force a convectively-aided backdoor front into eastern NM Saturday morning. This front will serve as an additional triggering mechanism for storms with very heavy rainfall along the central mt chain and nearby highlands. A larger Flash Flood Watch is likely to cover this heightened risk, potentially including the RGV and Gila region. Given the stronger flow aloft in the wake of the upper shortwave there may be greater coverage of strong to potentially severe storms over northern and eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 There`s little change to the forecast in the long term period beginning Saturday night and persisting well into next week as the monsoon high remains centered over the Great Basin and northerly flow aloft over CO and NM with an upper level troughing pattern over the Great Plains. Saturday night storms look to track south and coalesce once again over the central swath of the forecast area, advancing south of U.S. Hwy 70 by late evening and the midnight hour. Global model solutions are still resolving a subtle change in the weather pattern Sunday with a shortwave perturbation embedded within the northerly flow aloft working its way over northeastern NM. This feature will help enhance convective potential over northeastern NM, extending out from the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Otherwise, thunderstorm activity will follow a similar pattern we`ve seen in recent days favoring development over the high terrain before spreading and track southward over adjacent lower elevation areas late day and evening. This pattern continues Monday through Wednesday. Storm chances look to start trending down a tad by Tuesday and Wednesday as a sharp trough embedded within the polar jet moving into the PacNW begins to squish the monsoon high a bit. This may not even be a noticeable effect on the overall sensible weather pattern however. Abundant monsoon moisture, highlighted by PWATs of 0.90" to 1.20" will continue to support moisture rich thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall that threatens flash flooding. 5-Day to 7-Day rainfall totals continue to feature 3 to 6 inches of total rainfall for areas along and adjacent to the central mountain chain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop over the northern, central and western high terrain around 12 to 1pm then move south on convective outflows thru sunset. Favored areas this afternoon will include the central mt chain and adjacent highlands of central and eastern NM, including KLVS. TAF sites that get impacted directly will be capable of brief MVFR to IFR ceiling and visibilities from heavy rainfall. Areas of rain with embedded storms will converge in the lower RGV in the evening before sunset impacting KABQ, KAEG, and KONM, with additional showers and storms possible over the eastern plains through around midnight. Midlevel clouds overnight will become more scattered and few towards daybreak. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for the next 7 to 10 days. The risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue each day through the middle of next week. Storm motion will be generally north to south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 66 94 63 / 20 20 30 30 Dulce........................... 89 51 87 48 / 60 40 80 70 Cuba............................ 89 57 86 54 / 60 50 80 80 Gallup.......................... 91 57 90 54 / 50 50 60 50 El Morro........................ 83 57 83 55 / 70 60 80 80 Grants.......................... 88 59 86 58 / 60 60 80 80 Quemado......................... 87 59 87 58 / 90 70 90 90 Magdalena....................... 86 63 86 60 / 70 70 90 80 Datil........................... 84 57 83 57 / 80 60 90 80 Reserve......................... 90 59 91 56 / 80 60 90 80 Glenwood........................ 93 68 94 67 / 80 50 90 80 Chama........................... 81 49 78 46 / 70 50 90 80 Los Alamos...................... 84 60 81 59 / 70 50 90 80 Pecos........................... 85 56 80 56 / 70 50 90 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 47 79 43 / 70 50 90 80 Red River....................... 74 45 68 43 / 80 50 90 80 Angel Fire...................... 77 43 72 41 / 80 50 90 70 Taos............................ 87 52 83 51 / 60 50 90 70 Mora............................ 81 51 76 49 / 80 50 90 80 Espanola........................ 92 60 90 58 / 50 50 80 80 Santa Fe........................ 86 59 81 59 / 60 60 90 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 90 60 85 58 / 50 50 80 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 66 89 64 / 50 70 80 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 67 90 64 / 40 60 60 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 67 92 64 / 30 60 60 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 67 92 65 / 40 60 70 80 Belen........................... 94 66 93 62 / 40 60 60 80 Bernalillo...................... 94 65 92 64 / 40 60 70 80 Bosque Farms.................... 94 64 92 61 / 30 60 60 80 Corrales........................ 94 65 92 64 / 40 60 70 80 Los Lunas....................... 94 65 92 63 / 30 60 60 80 Placitas........................ 90 64 88 62 / 50 60 80 80 Rio Rancho...................... 93 66 91 64 / 40 60 70 80 Socorro......................... 96 68 96 66 / 50 60 70 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 60 82 58 / 50 60 80 80 Tijeras......................... 90 61 87 58 / 50 60 80 80 Edgewood........................ 89 58 85 55 / 50 60 80 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 56 85 54 / 50 60 80 70 Clines Corners.................. 83 56 80 54 / 70 60 80 70 Mountainair..................... 87 59 84 56 / 50 70 80 70 Gran Quivira.................... 86 59 84 56 / 60 70 90 80 Carrizozo....................... 88 65 88 61 / 60 60 80 80 Ruidoso......................... 80 58 78 56 / 70 50 90 80 Capulin......................... 84 55 77 52 / 60 50 70 40 Raton........................... 87 55 83 53 / 60 40 80 40 Springer........................ 89 56 84 56 / 60 40 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 82 54 78 53 / 70 50 90 70 Clayton......................... 91 61 86 60 / 30 50 40 20 Roy............................. 86 60 83 58 / 50 60 70 60 Conchas......................... 93 65 89 63 / 30 60 50 60 Santa Rosa...................... 90 64 86 61 / 50 60 60 70 Tucumcari....................... 92 65 90 62 / 20 50 40 40 Clovis.......................... 92 66 91 66 / 20 40 50 50 Portales........................ 92 66 91 66 / 20 40 50 50 Fort Sumner..................... 92 67 91 65 / 30 50 50 60 Roswell......................... 96 72 95 70 / 20 30 50 60 Picacho......................... 89 65 87 62 / 60 40 80 70 Elk............................. 85 61 84 58 / 70 40 90 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ211-212-214-215-222>224- 226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...71