931
FXUS65 KABQ 162134
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
334 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered showers and storms today will become more numerous mid-
week, creating a high to extreme risk of burn scar flash flooding.
Some storms may become severe along and east of the central mountain
chain each of the next several days as well. The active Monsoon
pattern with daily rounds of showers and storms is forecast to
continue through the weekend into early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered convection this afternoon has focused over the northern
mtns. Storm coverage has been slightly greater than anticipated so hi-
res models have been playing catch-up to latch onto what`s currently
out there. The group of cells along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo mtns will likely try to cluster together as they slowly move
eastward and tap into a more unstable airmass in the northeast
plains. Up to 20KT of bulk shear will struggle to organize storms so
the damaging wind threat is more concerning than that of large hail.
A backdoor cold front surging in from the northeast will also help
to intensify these storms  by providing more moisture and some
surface convergence. The front will accelerate south and westward
tonight, eventually spilling through the gaps of the central mtn
chain late this evening. This may help to trigger additional shower
development along the Rio Grande Valley around midnight, but
confidence is relatively low.

The influx of moisture in the wake of the backdoor front will make
tomorrow a very active day with storms developing during the late
morning hours over the high terrain. High pressure will migrate
westward to the Four Corners region tomorrow afternoon so steering
flow will be to the south/southeast in most areas, except in the
southwest mtns where it will be north/northeast. A shortwave will
straddle the central mtn chain tomorrow afternoon, focusing the most
robust convection in that area. Rounds of heavy rainfall are
expected and PWATs up to 2 std deviations above average will support
efficient rainfall rates. Given the moist atmosphere, wet
microbursts will be a threat as well, with their outflow boundaries
helping to fire additional convection. With forcing from the
aformentioned shortwave, storms are expected to continue well into
the overnight hours, particularly for areas along and south of I-40.
The Flood Watch for tomorrow and tomorrow night was expanded to
include areas slightly further east given that recent models have
shifted the core of precipitation in that direction. Additional
eastward expansion of the Flood Watch is possible tonight if models
continue to trend east with the heavy precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Thursday will be another active day as easterly moisture advection
helps PWATs trend higher. Storms will focus over the western and
northern high terrain. Stabilization from the previous days storms
could help push the time of convective initiation later into the
afternoon and keep temps down a few degrees, but it should still be
a very active afternoon and evening with a high threat of flash
flooding once again. Guidance is in good agreement that the Monsoon
Ridge will remain parked over The Great Basin, allowing moist
northerly flow to spark widespread shower and storms each day. Given
that the flow direction will remain very consistent during this time
period, the same locations are expected to get hit day after day.
Another backdoor front is expected Saturday, further increasing
moisture content and potentially creating gusty east winds through
the gaps of the central mtn chain. Ensemble mean PWATs are forecast
to continue to climb into the weekend, peaking on Sunday at near
daily record levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered showers and storms will develop around 18Z, increasing
in coverage through the afternoon over the high terrain of western
and northern NM. Storm coverage will be greatest along and east of
the Sangre de Cristo mtns where a few storms may become severe as
they cluster together. Hi-res models are in good agreement that
the cluster of storms will impact KCAO between 21Z and 01Z,
producing wind gusts up to 50KT. Storms may hold together,
reaching KTCC by 00Z, but confidence is not as high.

An outflow aided backdoor cold front will surge south and
westward this afternoon and evening, eventually funneling through
the gaps of the central mtn chain around 03Z, impacting both KABQ
and KSAF. Forecast wind speeds are higher than guidance
indicates, but still may not be strong enough if a second round of
convection develops in the central highlands and eastern plains
this evening. A few showers and storms may linger past 06Z in
central NM tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered storms today will increase in coverage mid to late week,
creating a high to extreme risk of flash flooding over recent burn
scars. Lightning activity will trend up as storms become more
numerous and wetting footprints trend larger. Areas along and just
east of the central mtn chain may see up 3" of rain through the end
of the week, with locally higher totals possible. Wet microbursts are
possible each day, particularly east of the central mtn chain where
the environment will be more unstable. All of this moisture will
create good to excellent humidity recoveries areawide mid week
through the weekend. Backdoor cold fronts tonight, tomorrow night,
and again Saturday night may create gusty east winds in its wake.
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  96  66  93 /   5  10  20  20
Dulce...........................  52  90  51  86 /  20  50  40  70
Cuba............................  60  88  57  84 /  30  60  60  60
Gallup..........................  59  91  58  88 /  30  50  50  60
El Morro........................  60  86  58  83 /  40  70  70  80
Grants..........................  61  89  58  85 /  40  70  60  80
Quemado.........................  59  90  59  84 /  50  70  80  90
Magdalena.......................  65  90  62  84 /  20  50  60  80
Datil...........................  60  88  58  81 /  30  60  60  90
Reserve.........................  59  95  58  88 /  30  60  60  90
Glenwood........................  68  98  68  93 /  30  60  60  90
Chama...........................  51  81  49  78 /  30  70  60  80
Los Alamos......................  63  82  59  80 /  40  90  70  80
Pecos...........................  60  83  56  78 /  40  80  70  80
Cerro/Questa....................  48  80  47  78 /  40  90  60  90
Red River.......................  48  69  46  71 /  50  90  70  90
Angel Fire......................  46  74  45  73 /  40 100  70  90
Taos............................  54  85  52  82 /  30  90  60  80
Mora............................  53  77  51  76 /  30  90  70  80
Espanola........................  61  91  60  87 /  40  70  60  60
Santa Fe........................  62  84  59  81 /  50  80  70  80
Santa Fe Airport................  63  88  59  84 /  40  70  70  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  92  65  88 /  40  70  80  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  94  65  90 /  30  50  70  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  97  66  92 /  20  40  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  95  66  90 /  30  50  70  40
Belen...........................  67  97  65  92 /  20  30  50  40
Bernalillo......................  68  95  65  91 /  30  50  70  50
Bosque Farms....................  66  97  64  92 /  20  40  60  40
Corrales........................  69  96  65  91 /  30  50  70  40
Los Lunas.......................  67  97  65  92 /  20  30  60  40
Placitas........................  66  91  63  87 /  30  60  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  69  95  65  90 /  30  50  70  40
Socorro.........................  70 101  68  93 /  20  30  50  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  86  58  82 /  30  70  70  60
Tijeras.........................  63  89  59  84 /  30  70  70  60
Edgewood........................  60  88  57  84 /  20  60  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  89  57  85 /  30  60  70  60
Clines Corners..................  58  83  56  79 /  30  60  70  60
Mountainair.....................  60  89  58  84 /  20  50  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  61  89  59  84 /  20  50  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  67  93  65  86 /  10  30  60  70
Ruidoso.........................  60  85  58  77 /   5  40  50  80
Capulin.........................  55  76  55  76 /  60  90  50  60
Raton...........................  55  82  55  80 /  50  90  60  60
Springer........................  57  84  57  81 /  40  90  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  56  79  55  76 /  30  90  70  70
Clayton.........................  62  84  61  82 /  50  60  30  30
Roy.............................  60  83  59  77 /  40  80  70  50
Conchas.........................  66  91  64  85 /  40  60  80  30
Santa Rosa......................  65  89  63  83 /  30  50  60  40
Tucumcari.......................  66  91  64  86 /  50  40  60  30
Clovis..........................  67  93  65  84 /  10  40  60  40
Portales........................  68  94  65  85 /  10  30  50  30
Fort Sumner.....................  68  95  66  87 /  10  40  60  30
Roswell.........................  71 100  71  91 /   0  20  40  30
Picacho.........................  64  93  64  85 /   0  20  50  50
Elk.............................  61  90  60  82 /   0  20  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for NMZ211>215-217>229-231>233-237-239.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16