646
FXUS65 KABQ 151740 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms today will tend to favor the north
central to northeastern areas of New Mexico, and a few storms may
also be found over the western mountains. Remaining areas of the
state are expected to observe only sparse, if any, showers or
storms. Much like yesterday, temperatures will be warm to hot
again with Heat Advisories in effect for some lower elevation
valley locations where readings will approach 100 degrees.
Moisture is forecast to increase some on Tuesday, leading to more
showers and storms, especially in northeastern areas of New
Mexico. Even more moisture will arrive through the latter half of
the week, leading to a more significantly active thunderstorm
pattern Wednesday onward. As rain chances rise through this time,
so will the chance for locally heavy downpours and flash flooding.
Temperatures should lower a few degrees, running near to slightly
below normal by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The center of high pressure in the mid levels is forecast to remain
over northwest NM today and Tuesday, then drift over the Four
Corners Wednesday, and drift gradually further west over NV by this
weekend. PWATs will generally remain around 0.50-0.80" today, like
they have been the past couple days, with some gusty virga showers
in the mix over western and northern areas, where showers and
thunderstorms will be favored this afternoon and evening. A
disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge aloft will track
southeastward over northeast NM this evening, helping to steer some
storms a bit further south over central areas from around
Albuquerque to around Santa Rosa, and perhaps as far east as
Tucumcari. High temperatures are forecast to climb a few to around
10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages again this afternoon, reaching
the 90s and low 100s at lower elevations. Will continue the Heat
Advisory for the Albuquerque area this afternoon and early
evening, and expand it to the Northwest Plateau, including
Farmington.

The disturbance clipping northeast NM this evening will send some
cooler and moister air into the state with high temperatures falling
over northern areas a few to 7 degrees from today`s readings on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, central and southern areas will remain hot with
more hazardous heat possible. Precipitable water values will begin
an upward trend Tuesday, and there will be an uptick in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, except over the far southeast plains
and the Four Corners where it will probably remain dry. An upper
level trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Tuesday,
sending a moist backdoor front into the state late in the day and
especially Tuesday night. Shear and instability profiles look
sufficient for some strong to severe storms over northeast areas
Tuesday afternoon, and potentially east central areas by Tuesday
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Into Tuesday evening, convection will likely be focused over
northeastern NM and southeastern CO where the tail end of a moist
front will be sagging. Some strong, slow-moving storms could lead
to locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding before cells slowly
degrade and diminish into the early morning hours Wednesday. By
the daytime, the synoptic surface high over the plains will steer
an east wind into much of NM, providing upslope flow and moisture
advection while the upper high broadly remains over the Four
Corners states. Therefore, the PWATs will escalate above normal
Wednesday with many central to eastern zones still progged to rise
to a 1.0 to 1.3 inch range while even western zones see a more
diffuse increase to 0.8 to 1.0 inch. Storms would quickly form
over the high terrain in the early afternoon and then multiply and
expand into adjacent areas on a fairly widespread basis,
propagating southward amid the anticyclonic flow around the high.
With these higher PWATs and relatively high 0-6 km bulk shear
values (25-35 kt over many central to eastern zones due to
directional changes with height), storms will pack a punch with
threats of hail, downburst winds and locally heavy downpours. All
recent burn scars would be under a higher threat for flooding, and
a healthy coverage of storms will likely carry on well into the
evening.

The upper high would stay just southwest of the Four Corners on
Thursday with moisture continuing to nudge upward. The mean PWAT
at ABQ among the ENS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles shows values
climbing near 1.1 inch (higher to the east and only slightly less
farther west). Surface winds are forecast to veer more southerly
over a large majority of the forecast area, pointing toward a
southern slope initiation for convection on most NM mountain
ranges before cells sluggishly drift southward again. There will
still be considerable directional shear, so strong storms will
again be possible with synoptic models indicating another active
evening period as cells redevelop along new mesoscale cold pool
boundaries and their subsequent collisions.

The weather pattern will be slow to evolve through the rest of the
week and the weekend with the upper high eventually working back
over the Great Basin. Details of what will happen in middle
America are still uncertain, but a potential weak circulation
could move southward into the central plains, perhaps being a
focus for convection there which could reintroduce easterly
surface pushes into NM. The moisture would already be in place,
but this could offer more upslope on eastern faces (mainly on the
central mountain chain). Storms over NM generally would continue
to move southward or southwestward at slow paces while PWATs
remain above average, keeping the locally heavy rainfall threat
each day through the weekend. Temperatures would hover near to
slightly below average each day Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will favor the high
terrain of western and northern New Mexico this afternoon and
evening, with gusty outflow winds up to 40KT being the main
hazard. Storm motion will be slow and erratic, except across the
northeast where will it will be easterly thanks to a weak
disturbance rounding the north side of the High that is centered
over north-central New Mexico. Some hi-res models are trying to
pick-up on an area of showers in central and east-central New
Mexico this evening between 00Z and 06Z, including along the Rio
Grande Valley. However, confidence was not high enough with this
package to include more than a mention of vicinity showers in the
TAFs.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The upper high is forecast to dwell over northwest NM today and
Tuesday, then drift over the Four Corners Wednesday, and drift
gradually further west over NV by this weekend. Scattered-to-
isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern
areas again today, when PWATs lingering in the 0.50-0.80" range will
probably limit the size of wetting footprints and result in a fair
amount of gusty virga in the mix. A disturbance embedded in the
periphery of the ridge aloft will clip northeast NM this evening,
sending cooler and moister air into the state and spreading storms a
bit further south over central areas than we have seen them develop
the past couple days. PWATs will increase more rapidly Tuesday
through the end of the week as a moist backdoor front moves through
the area followed by a rich return flow of low level moisture out of
the southeast. PWATs should reach near and over 1 inch most places
during the middle and latter half of the week and through the coming
weekend, raising the concern for locally heavy rainfall and burn
scar flash flooding as scattered-to-numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop each afternoon and evening areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 100  65  97  65 /   5  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  96  50  93  50 /  20  20  50  30
Cuba............................  93  60  92  59 /  20  30  40  40
Gallup..........................  96  56  94  57 /  20  30  40  40
El Morro........................  91  58  90  56 /  30  50  60  50
Grants..........................  94  59  92  58 /  30  30  60  50
Quemado.........................  92  59  92  57 /  30  50  60  50
Magdalena.......................  92  65  94  64 /   0  20  50  40
Datil...........................  90  60  90  58 /  20  30  60  50
Reserve.........................  97  57  96  57 /  50  30  60  50
Glenwood........................  98  69  98  66 /  60  30  60  40
Chama...........................  88  52  86  50 /  40  20  70  50
Los Alamos......................  90  65  88  62 /  30  30  70  50
Pecos...........................  91  62  90  58 /  30  30  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  89  47  87  46 /  50  40  90  60
Red River.......................  81  48  79  44 /  60  30  90  60
Angel Fire......................  84  45  81  42 /  50  30  80  60
Taos............................  93  54  91  52 /  30  30  70  60
Mora............................  89  54  86  52 /  40  30  70  60
Espanola........................  98  61  97  61 /  20  30  40  50
Santa Fe........................  92  65  91  62 /  20  30  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  95  63  94  60 /  20  30  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  71  98  67 /  10  20  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  69 100  69 /   5  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  68 102  62 /   5  20  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  70 100  68 /   5  20  20  40
Belen........................... 100  65 101  65 /   0  20  20  40
Bernalillo...................... 101  68 101  66 /  10  20  30  40
Bosque Farms.................... 100  65 101  62 /   0  20  20  40
Corrales........................ 100  68 101  66 /   5  20  20  40
Los Lunas....................... 100  67 101  63 /   0  20  20  40
Placitas........................  97  68  97  65 /  10  20  40  40
Rio Rancho...................... 100  69 101  68 /   5  20  20  40
Socorro......................... 101  69 103  71 /   0  10  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  65  91  61 /  10  20  40  40
Tijeras.........................  95  66  94  62 /  10  20  40  50
Edgewood........................  95  60  94  59 /  10  20  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  58  96  58 /  10  20  30  50
Clines Corners..................  92  60  90  57 /  10  20  40  40
Mountainair.....................  93  62  93  60 /  10  20  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  93  61  93  60 /  10  10  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  96  67  97  67 /   5   5  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  87  60  88  56 /  10   5  20  20
Capulin.........................  91  57  86  54 /  40  30  70  60
Raton...........................  95  57  91  56 /  30  20  70  60
Springer........................  97  58  93  58 /  30  20  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  91  57  88  55 /  30  20  60  60
Clayton......................... 100  66  93  62 /  20  20  30  60
Roy.............................  96  62  92  61 /  20  20  40  60
Conchas......................... 101  68 101  66 /  10  20  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  98  66  97  64 /   5  20  20  30
Tucumcari....................... 102  68 101  65 /   0  10  10  30
Clovis.......................... 100  70 100  68 /   0   0  10  20
Portales........................ 100  70 100  68 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Sumner..................... 100  68 101  68 /   0   5  10  30
Roswell......................... 103  72 104  73 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  96  65  98  65 /   0   0  10  10
Elk.............................  93  61  95  61 /   5   0  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16