714
FXUS65 KABQ 171125 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Moisture is increasing across much of northern and central New
Mexico as a moist front works southwestward into the state early
this morning. This will set the stage for a more active shower and
thunderstorm pattern for the rest of the week. Storms today will
first form over the northern and western mountains before drifting
south southeastward and filling into many central valley and
eastern plains locations. Storms will be capable of turning strong
with hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours, and a Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for many central and eastern areas of New
Mexico. A similar weather pattern will continue on Thursday and
each day into the weekend and early next week with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of locally heavy
rainfall which may lead to flash flooding. Temperatures will still
be warm to hot in many locations, but not as hot as earlier in the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The 592dm H5 monsoon high remains centered over west-central NM this
morning and is expected to continue shifting over Four Corners
region later today. Outflow from yesterday evening`s MCS over the
high plains pushed south and westward to the gaps of the central
mountain chain, producing gusty east canyon winds in Albuquerque.
These gusty winds will continue well into morning hours before
tapering off mid-to-late morning. The additional moisture and
lowering pressure heights will result in lower high temperatures
forecast today, and no Heat Advisory is on tap today as a result.
A considerable uptick in thunderstorm activity is still forecast
today given the influx of 50s Td`s through the eastern half of the
state. Easterly upslope flow riding up the eastern slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mts will make this area the most favored area for
thunderstorm initiation near noon to 1pm MDT this afternoon. CI
will also favor the rest of the western and northern mountains
with considerably less initiation over the south-central mountains
near Ruidoso. Numerical model guidance has backed off an upper
level perturbation moving down the Rockies into north-central NM
helping enhance thunderstorm activity. Nevertheless, still
maintained high PoPs and the threat of flash flooding from these
storms over the Sangre de Cristo`s and the Hermit`s Peak/Calf
Canyon burn scar early afternoon. Steering flow takes storms
south-southeastward over the adjacent high plains where a few
storms could become severe as they encounter higher instability
(SBCAPE 1000-1800 J/kg) and bulk shear of 20-30kts. A juicy
atmosphere will continue the threat of locally heavy rainfall as
these cells move further out over the eastern plains toward the TX
border. Global models and hi-res CAMs are all honing in on a
heavy rainfall threat moving over Quay, Curry and Roosevelt
Counties. Have gone ahead and expanded the Flood Watch to these
counties as a result. Meanwhile, a few storms look to get going
over the Sandia/Manzano Mts that then push over the Estancia Basin
with outflow pushing westward and colliding with other outflow
boundaries to develop a secondary round of showers and
thunderstorms over the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas
favoring the evening hours of 6p to 10p MDT. Elsewhere, some of
these thunderstorms look to make it as far as Ruidoso during the
evening, and have maintained the Flood Watch in these areas.

Shower and thunderstorm activity steadily tapers off Thursday
morning. The monsoon high builds back to 596dm and will be centered
over southeastern UT with continued NNW flow over a majority of the
forecast area. Thursday`s afternoon crop of storms will favor a
similar pattern as Wednesday, except with initiation favored for all
high terrain mountain areas between the 12p to 2p MDT timeframe.
Storms will generally track southward and spread over adjacent lower
elevation areas. Flash flooding will again be a main concern over
recent burn scars, urban areas and already rain soaked locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The upper high is still modeled to start shifting northwestward
on Friday, putting the centroid northwest of the Four Corners.
This will establish a more direct north wind aloft over NM with
light speeds continuing to make for sluggish storm motions.
Surface winds would tend to stay out of the south for most areas
outside of the northwest plateau area, and while some slightly
drier air will sag over the Sangre de Cristos, the moisture will
by-and- large remain in place and intact with above average PWATs
of 1.0 to near 1.3 inches stretching from the Rio Grande valley to
the eastern plains. This will keep the numerous storm coverage
continuing in the forecast with lots of directional shear
available to strengthen several cells while a locally heavy
downpour threat will exist with most storms as well.

Into Saturday, much more of the same is expected with the monsoon
high inching a bit closer to the Great Basin. A weak shortwave
trough continues to be modeled with better consensus now, dropping
into midwestern states near KS/IA/MO, and this will help spread a
surface boundary southwestward into NM. While moisture advection
will be a bit more subtle given our already high dewpoints/PWATs,
the synoptic scale easterly surface flow will be a enhancing
feature for convective initiation on the east slopes of the
central mountain chain and secondarily on the Continental Divide.
Storms would blanket much of the high terrain zones in the
afternoon before cold pools migrate to lower elevations and
trigger more storms through much of the evening. The east wind is
projected to spill into the middle Rio Grande valley around midday
Saturday, and may get an extra push with outflows causing it to
accelerate through the gaps and canyons within the central
mountain chain more Saturday evening.

Very similar conditions will persist into Sunday and Monday with
the high remaining established over the Great Basin, only
weakening slightly into Monday and Tuesday while the
aforementioned shortwave over the central plains pivots very
slowly toward KS/OK/MO/AR. This will keep the easterly wind going
trough Sunday, Monday, only slowly veering more southerly into
Tuesday. Coverage of numerous thunderstorms will persist each day
with localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding recurring each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Calm conditions this morning will give way to a significant uptick
in afternoon thunderstorm activity. Storm development is expected
to begin over the western and northern mountains of NM by 12pm to
2pm MDT. Thunderstorms will then spread southeastward over
adjacent highland areas midafternoon, spreading further over lower
elevation areas of central and eastern NM late day and evening.
Localized IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany any storm with
cloud-to-ground lightning, hail and gusty winds. TEMPOs are
included at most terminals to reflect this. Storm activity will
steadily wane through the overnight period into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. East canyon
winds pushing through Santa Fe and Albuquerque will steadily taper
off this morning. Daily rounds of afternoon storms favoring
development over the high terrain near noon to 2pm can be expected.
Storms will generally track south to southeast, spreading over
surrounding highlands and lower elevations late day and evening.
Flash flooding will be at a high risk over recent burn scar areas.
The Northwest Plateau near Farmington and the Four Corners will be
the driest portion of the forecast area being closest to the center
of the monsoon high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  66  94  64 /  20  30  10  30
Dulce...........................  91  52  89  50 /  60  40  50  50
Cuba............................  89  57  87  56 /  70  80  50  60
Gallup..........................  91  58  90  56 /  50  40  50  60
El Morro........................  87  58  84  54 /  80  50  80  70
Grants..........................  89  58  87  58 /  60  60  70  60
Quemado.........................  90  60  86  55 /  70  60  80  70
Magdalena.......................  91  62  86  61 /  50  60  70  60
Datil...........................  88  59  83  55 /  70  60  80  60
Reserve.........................  95  60  91  55 /  60  60  80  70
Glenwood........................  99  68  96  65 /  60  50  70  70
Chama...........................  81  50  80  49 /  80  60  70  50
Los Alamos......................  83  59  82  60 /  80  80  70  60
Pecos...........................  82  56  81  57 /  90  70  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  81  48  81  47 /  90  60  80  50
Red River.......................  71  46  72  46 / 100  60  80  40
Angel Fire......................  73  45  75  43 /  90  70  80  40
Taos............................  85  52  85  52 /  90  70  60  40
Mora............................  78  51  78  51 / 100  70  70  50
Espanola........................  91  59  90  60 /  80  70  40  50
Santa Fe........................  85  59  83  61 /  80  80  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  89  59  86  59 /  60  80  40  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  65  90  65 /  50  80  50  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  66  92  67 /  40  70  30  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  67  94  60 /  30  70  20  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  66  92  66 /  30  70  20  60
Belen...........................  98  65  94  63 /  30  50  20  60
Bernalillo......................  96  65  93  64 /  40  70  20  60
Bosque Farms....................  97  65  93  59 /  30  60  20  60
Corrales........................  96  65  93  64 /  40  70  20  60
Los Lunas.......................  97  66  93  61 /  30  50  20  60
Placitas........................  91  63  89  63 /  50  70  40  60
Rio Rancho......................  96  65  93  66 /  40  70  20  60
Socorro......................... 101  68  96  67 /  30  50  40  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  58  84  60 /  60  70  50  50
Tijeras.........................  89  60  86  61 /  60  70  50  60
Edgewood........................  89  57  86  58 /  70  60  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  57  87  55 /  60  60  40  50
Clines Corners..................  82  56  82  55 /  70  70  50  50
Mountainair.....................  89  58  85  58 /  50  60  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  86  58 /  50  70  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  94  65  89  64 /  30  50  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  85  58  80  53 /  30  50  70  50
Capulin.........................  76  54  78  53 /  90  60  50  20
Raton...........................  83  55  82  55 /  90  50  50  20
Springer........................  84  57  83  56 /  90  70  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  78  54  78  55 /  90  60  60  50
Clayton.........................  84  61  83  61 /  60  80  30  20
Roy.............................  83  59  80  60 / 100  70  40  30
Conchas.........................  91  65  87  64 /  70  70  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  89  63  84  63 /  70  70  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  90  63  87  64 /  50  70  20  30
Clovis..........................  93  65  87  66 /  50  80  30  30
Portales........................  94  65  87  66 /  40  80  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  95  66  89  66 /  50  80  10  40
Roswell......................... 100  71  95  71 /  10  50  20  40
Picacho.........................  94  64  88  63 /  10  40  40  40
Elk.............................  91  60  85  59 /  20  40  60  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for
NMZ211>215-218>224-226-229-234>236.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24