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229
FXUS61 KOKX 270543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through overnight into Thursday with high
pressure slowly building in afterwards. A warm front lifts
north Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure
returns for the a start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The line of strong to severe thunderstorms has moved east of
Connecticut as of 0300Z, with isolated sub severe cells farther
back toward the NYC metro. This activity should gradually
weaken over the next couple of hours, but additional showers,
perhaps with a few embedded thunderstorms, may approach once
again from the west as the cold front moves through into the
early overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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The surface cold front and upper trough will be exiting the
region early Thursday morning by 12Z. The surface low will be
slowly tracking northward Thursday and the trailing cold front
may linger just to the east and south of Long Island through
much of Thursday. High pressure will be slow to build east as
the upper trough remains across the northeast into Friday
morning. There is a chance showers linger longer into Thursday
morning, however, once the front moves east dry weather is then
expected. Clearing is expected, but could still see some
lingering cloud cover around the lingering front to the
southeast until mid/late afternoon Thursday.

Highs will be in the low to upper-80s on Thursday. Thursday night
lows will drop into the mid-50s to mid-60s under clear
skies with northerly flow around 5-10 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will pass off the New England Coast from late day
Friday into Friday night, allowing a warm front to lift through
on Saturday. An unsettled but very warm period will set up for
Saturday night and Sunday as a prefrontal trough and cold front
move through, bringing shower/tstms. The heat index may approach
or surpass 95, mainly in NE NJ and perhaps also in NYC and
along the north shore of Long Island, with temps approaching 90
and dewpoints in the lower 70s, but it is possible that limited
daytime heating and better vertical mixing could lead to cooler
temps and/or lower dewpoints so this remains uncertain, and at
any rate would last for only one day.

With the exception of Sunday, and possibly next Wednesday ahead
of another cold front when temps will again be on the rise,
temps should be close to normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front moves through overnight into early this morning. A
secondary cold front passes slowly through the region during the
afternoon.

VFR, with MVFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms
overnight, ending west around 09Z, and east 12Z to 14Z. Chances
of thunderstorms diminish west after 06Z and east after 09Z.
There is a chance of MVFR stratus toward morning.

Flow is a bit chaotic into the early overnight with nearby
front, but general W-NW wind expected to develop as the cold
front moves through. Increasing WNW flow this afternoon
10-15G20-25kt, and sea breeze development likely shifts coastal
terminals S or SW. Gusts end this evening and winds become more
northerly, generally less than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible overnight due to possible stratus 1K - 2K
ft.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday night - Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
With a strong and gusty southwest flow ahead of a cold front,
winds and seas on the ocean waters remain at SCA levels into
tonight. With winds shifting to the northwest and diminishing
ocean seas fall below advisory levels late tonight, and may
remain elevated into early Thursday morning east of Fire Island
Inlet. With the southerly strong gusts a SCA remain in effect
until late tonight for the Long Island south shore bays. Then
sub advisory conditions remain through thursday night. For the
non ocean waters, winds and seas remain below advisory levels
today through Thursday night.

There is the potential for SCA cond mainly on the ocean from Sat
night into Sunday as SW flow increases, with gusts up to 25 kt and
significant wave heights above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATs are currently around 1.5 inches and may peak around 1.9-2.1
inches tonight which with right around the max moving average
according to SPC`s sounding climatology page. However, with the
lining up on a mainly north to south axis along and ahead of
the front and tracking west to east, no significant training of
storms is expected. Localized instances of flash flooding are
possible, but mostly likely will only seen minor urban and poor
drainage flooding. The 12Z HREF brings around 0.5"/hr rates for
most with some areas of western and central Connecticut having a
40-60% chance of 1"/hr rainfall rates in stronger
thunderstorms. Rainfall totals are projected to be around 0.5-1"
across the area with totals an inch or two higher than this
possible in stronger thunderstorms.

Basin avg QPF of up to an inch may be possible with the passing
frontal system this weekend. Locally higher amts are possible in
heavier tstms. Only nuisance issues anticipated attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches Thursday. The rip current risk lowers to moderate on
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

AVIATION...MET