508
FXUS65 KVEF 052012
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
112 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Exceptionally hot temperatures are the main focus of the
forecast through most of next week. This type of heat is dangerous
to all without adequate cooling or hydration. Numerous climate sites
face high probabilities of breaking daily as well as all-time
temperature records as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Friday.

Dangerous record breaking heat is the main forecast concern through
the weekend and most of next week. A nearly 600 dm 500 mb high
currently centered off the northern California coast will migrate
east into California and the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley
over the weekend and early next week. At the surface, this means
exceptionally hot daytime temperatures with little overnight relief.
Widespread Major (Level 3) to Extreme (Level 4) HeatRisk is forecast
to last at least through next Thursday. The effects of compounding
heat will impact anyone without access to effective cooling or
adequate hydration. The all-time record high temperature for Las
Vegas is 117 degrees, achieved 5 times, most recently in 2021. The
probability of breaking this record is 50% on Sunday, 25% on
Monday, 50% on Tuesday and 42% on Wednesday. Numerous daily
records are also in jeopardy across the area - see the Climate
section below. The Excessive Heat Warning expands into Lincoln
County and northern Mohave County tomorrow afternoon, then remains
in effect across the area through Wednesday evening. Will
continue to monitor heat trends to determine if extensions beyond
Wednesday will be needed.

Forecast confidence decreases later next week. Some solutions
suggest that the upper level low will move far enough to the east to
allow monsoonal moisture from the south to reach the forecast area,
with the greatest chances for precipitation in northwest Arizona.
Increased moisture in the air could also provide some relief from
the heat. However, if the ridge does not track east and remains in
place, expect very hot and dry conditions to persist.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds are expected early this
afternoon. Wind speeds to 10KT with a few gusts to 15-20KT are
expected from 18Z-20Z. After 20Z, winds will drop to under 8KT and
become more easterly. Light winds under 8KT are likely tonight and
Saturday morning with typical wind patterns expected this evening
through the overnight period. Northeast winds will set up again
again Saturday late morning and continue through the early
afternoon, however speeds will be lower today with a only a 10%
chance for wind speeds over 8KT Saturday. No impactful weather or
clouds are expected through the TAF period. Dangerous heat continues
today and Saturday afternoon with temperatures over 100 degrees
expected each day 16Z through 06Z. High temperatures over 110F are
likely.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds under 10KT is expected at most locations
today through Saturday morning. The exception will be down the
Colorado River Valley where breezy north to northwest winds are
expected. Occasional gusts up to 20KT are possible (60% chance) at
KEED and KIFP this afternoon before winds diminish around 03Z.
Typical wind patterns are expected tonight and Saturday morning. No
impactful weather or clouds are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     116(2007)*  115(2007)*  116(2017)*  114(2021)*
Bishop        108(2007)*  105(2021)*  107(2021)*  109(2021)*
Needles       121(1989)*  120(1922)*  122(2017)*  120(2017)*
Daggett       118(2007)   115(2007)*  116(1989)*  114(2021)*
Kingman       109(2007)*  108(2017)*  112(2017)*  108(2017)*
Desert Rock   112(2007)   111(2007)*  111(2017)*  108(2017)*
Death Valley  126(2013)*  127(2007)*  129(2007)*  128(1913)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2013)*   90(1957)*   93(2018)    92(2017)*
Bishop        67(1984)    67(1985)    72(2014)    70(1991)
Needles       92(2013)    97(1903)    95(1942)    95(2018)
Daggett       84(1984)*   83(2007)*   80(2018)*   84(2021)*
Kingman       78(2021)    79(1981)    80(1917)    84(2014)
Desert Rock   80(1981)    83(1992)    82(1981)    81(2021)
Death Valley  110(1918)   99(2013)*   101(2021)   105(1921)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Nickerson
CLIMATE...Soulat

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