576
FXUS65 KVEF 271108
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
407 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures will continue to increase a little each day through
  Monday. Above normal temperatures may continue into next week;
  however, temperature trends will depend on how much moisture moves
  into the area.

* Moisture will slowly push in from the east next week, resulting in
  increasing thunderstorm chances mainly for Mohave County.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday. Midnight satellite loop showed clear
skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds and temperatures a
few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dry conditions and the warming
trend will continue through Monday as high pressure slowly builds.
Long range ensembles continue to show the high settling into the
Four Corners area early next week. At the same time, a weak upper
level low will reach the West Coast, leaving our area sandwiched in
between with southerly flow. Numerous ensemble members show
increasing precipitable water Monday or Tuesday, with 10-30%
probability for over one inch PWAT in areas southeast of I-15 from
Wednesday onward. Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning
around Tuesday; however, it`s too early to determine exact placement
(if at all) or impacts. Models remain in disagreement on the details
of exactly where the high and low will be, and thus how far west the
moisture will advect. There is still a noticeable slowing trend with
the arrival of moisture/onset of precipitation chances.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Winds to generally follow typical, daily patterns
throughout the TAF period. Throughout the late morning and
afternoon, wind direction may become highly variable at times,
ranging from ENE-SSW. That said, expecting an average direction to
be between 130-170. Speeds will likely approach or even exceed 10
knots for short periods of time, but should remain below this
threshold ~80% of the period. Winds forecast to come around the SSW
by early evening and weaken after sunset. Clear skies as
temperatures exceed 100F between 20z and 03z, peaking around 103F.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region
will favor typical, daily patterns. Most locations are expected to
see speeds 6-12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. In the Barstow area,
westerly gusts are likely to exceed 20 knots this evening before
weakening overnight. VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Morgan/Nickerson
AVIATION...Woods

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