937
FXUS65 KVEF 041902
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1202 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week as
a record breaking heatwave persists over the region. Hottest
temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday when numerous
long standing high temperature records may be challenged or
broken.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next week.

Dangerously hot temperatures remain the focus of the forecast as a
record breaking heatwave unfolds across much of the Western US.
Temperatures today should closely mirror observed values yesterday
which generally were in the 6 to 9 degrees above normal range.
While still very hot, this is still a few degrees shy of record
values for most of our climate sites. However, things will begin
to get even hotter Friday as the offshore high pressure ridge
begins to shift inland, and eventually overhead Sunday through
Wednesday. This will ensure our temperatures continue to climb,
and are still anticipated to challenge daily and some all-time
high temperature records for Sunday and into much of next week.

The current head headlines continue to look good, with the
previous shift expanding the Excessive Heat Warnings to include
Lincoln and northern Mohave counties, as well as adding heat
advisories for the higher terrain areas. Those looking to escape
the intense desert heat in the mountains will find it`s plenty hot
in the higher altitudes as well, and that combined with the
intense sunshine and thin mountain air can be a dangerous
combination. The duration and intensity of this heatwave are
unlikely any we`ve forecasted in recent memory, and we want to
stress preparedness and avoidance of the heat as much as
possible. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor exposure, and take frequent
breaks in air conditioned shelter if you do have to be outside.

The unrelenting heat will persist into most of next week. By late
in the week however, there are some hints the high pressure ridge
may migrate far enough north and east to allow for a more
southerly or easterly flow to develop, ushering in at least a
modest return in monsoon moisture and possibly easing our intense
heat. However, some guidance suggests the high pressure ridge
could stay anchored overhead, extending our heat episode into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds through about 20Z may vary
from north-northwest around 350 degrees to northeast around 020 to
030 degrees, however expected northeast to be the more frequent
direction. Wind speed should remain under 10KT with only a 20%
chance for speeds of 10KT or higher. After 20Z, winds will
transition to a east-northeast direction and will remain under 8KT
through the rest of the afternoon.

For tonight, a brief period of northwest winds is expected after
04Z. If this does not happen, typical southwest winds will develop
instead. No matter the direction, there is a 90%+ probability that
winds will remain under 8KT all night. Winds Friday morning will
increase out of the northeast after sunrise. Wind speeds around 10KT
are expected with occasional gusts up to 20KT through 21Z when winds
will diminish to 8 KT or less and become east. No impactful weather
or clouds are expected through the TAF period. Dangerous heat is
today and Monday afternoon with temperatures over 100 degrees
expected each day 18Z through 03Z. High temperatures over 110F are
likely.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Wind speeds will generally remain under 10KT today,
favoring the north to northwest in many locations. KBIH will see
light winds through the early afternoon before north to northeast
winds briefly increase to around 10KT late this afternoon and early
this evening. There is a moderate (40%-50%) chance for wind speeds
over 10KT between 23Z through 09Z. After 09Z, wind speeds will drop
to under 8KT and typical wind patterns will set up through Friday
morning. Elevated west winds will develop this evening at KDAG with
gusts up to 25KT possible but it`s nothing atypical for KDAG. Down
the Colorado River Valley, light winds through tonight will
become north to northeast early Friday morning, with gusts to
around 20KT developing after sunrise. No impactful weather or
clouds are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     115(1985)*  116(2007)*  115(2007)*  116(2017)*
Bishop        107(2007)*  108(2007)*  105(2021)*  107(2021)*
Needles       121(2007)   121(1989)*  120(1922)*  122(2017)
Daggett       117(1991)   118(2007)*  115(2007)*  116(1989)*
Kingman       110(2007)*  109(2007)*  108(2017)*  112(2017)
Desert Rock   112(1985)*  112(2007)*  111(2007)*  111(2017)*
Death Valley  128(2013)   126(2013)*  127(2007)*  129(2007)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, JUL 4  FRI, JUL 5  SAT, JUL 6  SUN, JUL 7
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      91(2015)    89(2013)*   90(1957)*   93(2018)*
Bishop         67(2001)    67(1984)    67(1985)    72(2014)
Needles        95(2013)    92(2013)    97(1903)    95(1942)
Daggett        88(2001)    84(1984)*   83(2007)*   80(2018)
Kingman        80(2013)    78(2021)    79(1981)    80(1917)
Desert Rock    83(2015)    80(1981)    83(1992)    82(1981)
Death Valley  100(1915)   110(1918)    99(2013)   101(2021)


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson
CLIMATE...Soulat

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