013
FXUS65 KVEF 080227 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
726 pm PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A historic heatwave persists across the region, with
daily and all-time records threatened through Friday. By next
weekend, a more traditional monsoonal pattern tries to take hold,
increasing rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly.

&&

.UPDATE...Along with the extreme temperatures, a few thunderstorms
did develop along the southern Sierra Nevada late this afternoon
between Aspendell and Mt. Whitney. They should dissipate by 8 or 9
pm this evening.

The big news today was the shattering of records. Las Vegas managed
to hit 120 degrees, shattering the all-time record high by 3
degrees. Bishop CA and Barstow-Daggett managed to tie their
respective all-time records of 111 degree and 118 degrees. These
records are all preliminary as the data needs to be certified by the
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1252 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024
.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

The nearly 600dm 500mb high continues to linger over the CA-NV area,
slowly drifting east over the next 7 days. Underneath, scorching
temperatures persist, producing widespread Major and Extreme
HeatRisk. Yesterday, all but 1 of our climate sites (Needles) set
daily record highs, with more records likely to be set in the coming
days. We`re running out of ways to describe the historic heatwave
that is underway across the region. Perhaps the best way to provide
perspective is by looking at the Las Vegas forecast and climate
history. Since 1937, Las Vegas has hit 117 degrees (the all-time
record high) 5 times. Of the next 6 days (including today), 5 of
them have a 50-60% chance of reaching or exceeding that mark based
on the latest NBM. Even if the 25th percentile of the NBM verified
over the next 6 days, it would be the hottest 7-day stretch ever
recorded in Las Vegas based on average high temperature. However,
the key takeaway from the forecast should not be the records, but
the danger posed by the excessive heat. Check up on loved ones -
especially those who are particularly vulnerable to the heat.
Populations sensitive to heat may include, but are not limited to:
those experiencing homelessness, elderly people, pregnant people,
children, and pets. Never leave a child or a pet in a car without
air conditioning. With this level of heat, simply rolling down the
windows will not be sufficient.

By next weekend, ensemble guidance shows the aforementioned 500mb
high drifting towards the Four Corners area, a more-typical location
for the monsoon season. SSE winds within the anti-cyclonic flow
around the high are expected to advect at least some moisture back
into our area. The better quality moisture will likely be confined
to locations along and south of I-15, where 1" PWAT probabilities
range from 30-60%. As moisture increases, so too do PoPs. Latest NBM
paints eastern Mohave County with 20-50% rain chances on Saturday
and Sunday, with 20-30% chances on the Spring Mountains. Given the
setup, tempted to believe these numbers are somewhat inflated by
climatology influences in the NBM, but regardless, the trend of
increasing PoPs stands for next weekend. The magnitude and northward
extent of moisture return will largely dictate whether or not we see
a subtle reprieve from the historic heat.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...A push of northwesterly winds should
arrive mid-afternoon with speeds of 7 to 9 knots and occasional
gusts over 10 knots possible. Winds shift to the west in the
evening, lightening further and switching back to the northwest
overnight. Variable winds can be expected early tomorrow morning
followed by northeasterly winds. Temperatures will peak at around
117 degrees between 22Z and 02Z and will fall to less than 100
degrees around 08Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty winds develop this afternoon and evening at KVGT,
KBIH, and KDAG, all decreasing overnight. Remaining TAF sites should
have winds of less than 10 knots. Clear skies except for some FEW-
SCT mid to high clouds. Very hot temperatures today and tomorrow
with most areas seeing highs between 110 and 120 degrees. Tomorrow`s
highs in the Colorado River Valley may exceed 120 degrees.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8  TUE, JUL 9  WED, JUL 10
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     116(2017)*  114(2021)*  116(2021)*  117(2021)*
Bishop        107(2021)*  109(2021)*  108(2021)*  111(2021)*
Needles       122(2017)*  120(2017)*  120(2021)*  122(2021)*
Daggett       116(1989)*  114(2021)*  113(2021)*  118(2021)*
Kingman       112(2017)*  108(2017)*  111(2021)*  111(2021)*
Desert Rock   112(2017)*  108(2017)*  111(2021)*  111(2021)*
Death Valley  129(2007)*  128(1913)*  130(2021)*  134(1913)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature
and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes
which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the
forecast).

WARM MIN      SUN, JUL 7  MON, JUL 8  TUE, JUL 9  WED, JUL 10
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)

Las Vegas     93(2018)    92(2017)*   93(2021)*   94(2021)
Bishop        72(2014)*   70(1991)    72(1975)    71(1985)
Needles       95(1942)    95(2018)    95(2021)    98(2021)
Daggett       80(2018)*   84(2021)*   85(2017)*   88(2021)
Kingman       80(1917)*   84(2014)    82(2017)    79(1913)*
Desert Rock   82(1981)    81(2021)*   86(1985)    82(2021)*
Death Valley  101(2021)   105(1921)   104(2021)   100(1927)*


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pierce

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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