Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
580
FNUS75 KTWC 140256
FWSTWC
Spot Forecast for Buckhorn Fire...AZ-SCA
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
756 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MST on July 14.
.DISCUSSION...
Chance for thunderstorms and showers to develop in the early afternoon
to evening hours, roughly between 1400 MST to 2100 MST Sunday. Storms are
expected to develop over the White Mountains and will generally move to the
southeast. With thunderstorms at or near the fire location, gusty and
erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 MPH are possible with frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Sunday, high temperatures will be around 90-95 degrees with minimum RH of
15-20 percent. Winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 MPH in the early
morning shifting to the southwest in the late morning to early afternoon hours.
In the late afternoon to evening hours, wind will be from the northwest at 5-10
MPH. Overnight lows will be around 55-60 degrees with maximum RH of 65-70
percent.
Monday, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon to
evening hours. General timing of storms is between 1300 MST to 2100 MST.
With thunderstorms at or near the fire location, gusty and erratic outflow
winds in excess of 50 MPH are possible with frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall. High temperatures of 85-90 degrees and minimum RH of 25-30
percent are forecast. Winds will generally be from the northwest at 5-10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms likely in the early afternoon to late
evening.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 50 percent late in the
morning, then increasing to 70 percent late in
the afternoon decreasing to 60 percent late in
the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 3 until 1400, then 4.
Max temperature.....89-92 degrees.
Min humidity........17-20 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
southwest 5 to 7 mph in the late morning and
early afternoon, then shifting to the northwest
5 to 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL early in
the morning, then increasing to 12100 ft AGL
decreasing to 8200 ft AGL late in the afternoon
decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 knots then shifting to the east
8 to 10 knots in the late morning and early
afternoon shifting to the northwest
around 10 knots late in the afternoon.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........10 4 78 78
Weather cov..... CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE LIKELY
CWR.............0 0 50 70
LAL.............1 1 3 4
Temp............62 79 87 86
RH..............45 25 18 21
20 FT wind......NE 3G6 SW 3G7 S 4G10 SW 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 6700 11800 8200
Transport wind..NE 6 N 7 E 10 W 10
Haines index....4 4 5 4
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
evening, then slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2000, then 3 until 2300, then 2 until
0500, then 1.
Min temperature.....59-62 degrees.
Max humidity........67-70 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
north late in the evening. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 knots shifting to the north
early in the evening.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........78 78 45
decreasing to 3800 ft AGL 45
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CWR.............60 60 20 20
LAL.............4 3 2 2
Temp............78 69 66 61
RH..............32 47 56 66
20 FT wind......NW 3G10 N 3G10 N 3G10 N 3G8
Mix hgt (ft)....300 100 100 100
Transport wind..NW 9 NW 9 N 10 N 10
Haines index....3 3 3 3
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
Showers late in the morning. Thunderstorms
and showers likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent increasing to 80 percent late in the
morning, then decreasing to 70 percent late in
the afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 4.
Max temperature.....86-89 degrees.
Min humidity........24-27 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph increasing to 5 to 9
mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 11400 ft AGL
late in the morning decreasing to 6500 ft AGL
late in the afternoon decreasing to 1100 ft
AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 9 knots shifting to the northwest
around 10 knots early in the afternoon, then
shifting to the north late in the afternoon.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........23 26 90 90
Weather cov..... DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ LIKELY LIKELY
CWR.............0 0 80 80
LAL.............1 1 4 4
Temp............63 77 86 84
RH..............61 36 25 28
20 FT wind......N 3G8 NW 4G10 NW 5G11 NW 5G11
Mix hgt (ft)....800 5300 10700 6500
Transport wind..N 8 NE 7 N 9 NW 10
Haines index....3 3 4 3
$$
Forecaster...MALARKEY
Requested by...Daniel Pearson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417993.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel_pearson@nps.gov
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