145
FNUS75 KTWC 161521
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for MAE...AZ-AZS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
821 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MST on July 16.

.DISCUSSION...There will be the daily chance of thunderstorms in
the fire area all this week. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows,
winds will be northwest into Wednesday afternoon when they will
become more southwesterly. There will be the threat of thunderstorm
outflow winds which can exceed 50 mph and result in extreme fire
behavior and/or a change in the direction of fire spread.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent increasing to 30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 4.
Max temperature.....85-88 degrees.
Min humidity........28-31 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest 2 to 7 mph, increasing to 6 to
                    11 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 12900 in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 knots.

TIME (MST)            11 AM     2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........      61        61        71
Weather cov.....      CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........      CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............      10        30        40
LAL.............      2         3         3
Temp............      81        85        84
RH..............      38        31        34
20 FT wind......      NW 7G15   NW 9G16   NW 10G17
Mix hgt (ft)....      5500      12900     9700
Transport wind..      NW 11     NW 10     NW 13
Haines index....      3         3         3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2300, then 2.
Min temperature.....67-70 degrees.
Max humidity........70-73 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest 6 to 11 mph early in the evening,
                    diminishing to 2 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 knots decreasing to around 7
                    knots.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........71        71        36        36
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............40        40        20        10
LAL.............4         4         3         2
Temp............81        73        69        68
RH..............36        50        58        65
20 FT wind......NW 8G15   NW 6G10   NW 5G10   NW 4G8
Mix hgt (ft)....6700      1200      500       100
Transport wind..NW 13     NW 10     NW 9      NW 7
Haines index....3         2         2         2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent increasing to 40 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 4.
Max temperature.....87-90 degrees.
Min humidity........25-28 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest to west 5 to 10 mph in the morning,
                    becoming southwest to west in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 12100 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 knots shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........32        13        71        71
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............0         10        40        40
LAL.............1         2         4         4
Temp............68        75        85        88
RH..............70        45        30        25
20 FT wind......NW 5G8    NW 6G10   W 6G12    SW 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....600       2500      6900      12000
Transport wind..N 7       N 8       NW 8      SW 9
Haines index....2         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...ZELL
Requested by...MIKE PICKETT
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418178.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AIDCLOGISTICS@DFFM.AZ.GOV

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