277
FXUS64 KTSA 061520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface
ridging dominates the area through this evening. Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions along with light winds will be the story
through the afternoon hours. More sunshine today will allow
temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as
highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most
locations. Continued dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices
down though for today, making for a relatively comfortable
afternoon by July standards.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Longwave trough axis remains over the plains into the early part
of next week at least, resulting in a more unsettled pattern with
temperatures remaining a little below average. Some high plains
convection later this afternoon is expected to remain to our
northwest overnight, though some lingering activity may brush
northern areas Sunday morning. More robust convection continues to
be depicted later Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave
rotates through the longwave trough into the plains. At this time
the bulk of the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat still
looks to remain to our west, but the exact evolution of this
remains in question.

Beryl is still expected to make landfall along the southern TX
Gulf Coast Monday, with latest NHC guidance showing a slight
northeast shift in the track. Consensus remains that the system
will lift northeast, but may pass close enough to bring a heavy
rainfall threat into far southeast OK and western AR by Tuesday.

Beyond that the upper ridge is expected to remain to our west
through the end of the week, with weak troughing over the plains.
This should keep at least isolated storm chances through Friday
with temperatues remaining near or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, aside from some light
MVFR fog potential at the NE OK sites this morning. Sfc winds will
remain below impactful levels.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  71  91  69 /   0   0  40  70
FSM   94  71  96  73 /   0   0  10  40
MLC   91  70  92  69 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   91  66  87  66 /   0   0  50  70
FYV   92  68  94  68 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   90  68  95  68 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   90  68  92  68 /   0   0  20  60
MIO   90  67  90  66 /   0   0  30  60
F10   90  68  92  66 /   0   0  30  70
HHW   90  70  92  69 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30