215
FXUS64 KTSA 041756
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

At mid/late morning a surface boundary/wind shift was positioned
from the Texas Panhandle through Western Oklahoma into North
Central Oklahoma...near Osage county...and extended northeast
though Southeast Kansas. Behind this boundary...the true cold
front was located across Western/Northern Kansas moving southeast.
Ahead of these features...south to southwesterly winds and temps
in the mid 80s to lower 90s were common across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas.

The leading boundary/wind shift is progged to continue to sag
east southeast into Northeast Oklahoma for this afternoon. This
boundary is forecast to be near Interstate 44 around mid
afternoon and become the focus for storm initiation as convective
temperatures are reached. Latest short term solutions continue to
indicate development in the 20-22z time frame across Northeast
Oklahoma. This activity is expected to continue to develop and
spread into Northwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma late
afternoon/early evening. The combination of increasing instability
and max heating interacting with the boundary will increase
severe potentials across the CWA through the evening hours...with
the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest
Arkansas.

Inverted V model soundings along with increasing low level lapse
rates will create locally damaging winds to be the main threat
with the strongest storms. Marginal shear values could allow for
hail to be a secondary severe threat. Also with the convection
will be abundant amounts of moisture for the storms to work with.
Precipitable water values up around 2 inches will aid in efficient
rain producing storms with locally heavy rainfall through this
evening.

Besides the increasing convection potential this afternoon...hot
and humid conditions are expected to be in place across the CWA
ahead of the boundary. Forecast high temps in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees and heat index values of 105 to around 112
degrees remain likely. Thus...will continue current heat headlines
as they are for now. The true cold front is not forecast to
reach/move into the CWA until this evening. Finally...for the
morning update...have added minor adjustments to PoPs into this
evening based on the mentioned above and also added a few tweaks
to afternoon hourly temp/dewpoint trends. The rest of the forecast
looks to be trending well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across
far southeast Oklahoma Friday morning before cold front pushes
south. A welcome break from the heat/humidity expected behind the
front with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak
surface high pressure builds into the region into Saturday as
northwest flow aloft continues.

Both GFS/ECMWF still suggest the potential for an MCS to move into
portions of Oklahoma Sunday evening/overnight as stronger upper wave
dives southeast into the central Plains. Obviously there is still
some uncertainty regarding evolution, however strongest storms
may remain west of area in the deeper moisture/instability axis.
Regardless, precipitation chances will increase, especially
across northeast Oklahoma.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal into the early to
middle part of next week as west to northwest flow aloft persists.
Remnants of Beryl should remain mainly south of area during this
time, but increasing low level moisture will likely allow for at
least scattered, mainly afternoon/evening storms across SE OK/NW
AR both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to spread
over the CWA this afternoon as a surface boundary moves over
Northeast Oklahoma. Convection initiation remains forecast along
and near this boundary starting mid afternoon and spreading east
southeast through the region this evening/tonight. Have added VCTS
and Tempo groups for timing to all TAF sites. Within the
convection will be the potential for gusty to strong
winds...locally heavy rainfall and brief MVFR conditions. A cold
front will then push through the CWA this evening/tonight behind
the initial line of convection with additional showers/storms
possible into the overnight hours from north to south. For now
have added VCTS/VCSH for timing of this second round of precip.
Some scattered/broken MVFR conditions are possible again with the
front. Behind the front...scattered to broken high clouds are
forecast into Friday morning. There are some indications that some
patchy areas of reduced visibility may develop early Friday
morning near the Kansas and Missouri borders...though for now will
hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Winds through the period start
out south to southwest...become variable with the precip and then
shift out of the west to north behind the cold front tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  70  90  66 /  70  60  10   0
FSM  100  75  92  68 /  30  60  10   0
MLC   99  72  88  65 /  20  70  30   0
BVO   96  65  88  61 /  50  60   0   0
FYV   97  69  88  62 /  40  70  10   0
BYV   98  69  86  62 /  30  70   0   0
MKO   98  70  87  65 /  60  70  10   0
MIO   96  66  85  63 /  60  60   0   0
F10   99  70  86  65 /  60  70  20   0
HHW   97  73  87  68 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063-
     064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20