626
FXUS64 KTSA 070815
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
315 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Main issue in the short term forecast revolves around thunderstorm
chances, this morning, and potential effect of morning storms on
development later this afternoon and evening. Cluster of strong
to severe storms moving across northwest OK has not been handled
well at all by 00z CAMs, and has been steadily organizing over the
past couple of hours. Meso-analysis doe s show a well defined low
level Theta-e gradient extending from northwest into southeast OK
and these storms appear to be developing along and north of the
gradient with support from a modest low level jet. Given the
potential for this cluster to continue riding along the boundary
have raised POPs in the morning above blended guidance.
Instability becomes less favorable the farther into eastern OK
you go, so plenty uncertain how far east the more robust storms
will eventually make it, but in general will go with likely POPs
for areas west of US 75 for now. Will take one final look at the
radar trends before issuing the forecast.

Uncertainty regarding evolution of morning storms lends further
uncertainty to afternoon and evening potential, but would expect
sufficient recovery for further development later today in the
vainest of synoptic boundary, again favoring the western portions
of the forecast area for potential severe weather and heavy
rainfall. Depending on how things unfold this morning, the threat
of an additional round of storms could end up resulting in higher
flooding potential, given the anomalously high PWAT values, and a
watch may be needed later today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Thunderstorm potential should continue tonight into Monday while
expanding east with time, as Beryl makes landfall along the TX
Gulf Coast Monday and moisture increases across eastern sections.
Heavy rainfall will remain a possibility tonight, particularly in
locations affected by multiple rounds of storms, and become
focused across southeast OK and western AR Monday night and
Tuesday due to the potential impacts of Beryl.

A dry period will ensue in the wake of the tropical system into
mid week, trough with a general weak upper trough in place at
least isolated chances may persist. Temps early in the week
should remain below normal, but summer is likely to return by next
weekend with the upper ridge expanding back into the plains. Nice
while it lasted.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A storm complex over NW OK/SW KS is expected to eventually spread
east across NE OK during the mid-morning thru early afternoon
hours, while gradually decaying. TEMPOs were maintained from
previous forecast for potential MVFR conditions with the storms.
PROB30s were maintained at the far NW AR sites for the afternoon,
though the latest data suggests the morning activity should
dissipate by the time they would arrive there. Outside of this,
expect VFR to prevail at all sites thru much of the day on Sunday.
By late afternoon storms will begin to fire along an advancing
outflow/front near the NE OK terminals and spread east/south from
there into the evening. Inserted TEMPO groups for the E OK sites
where confidence is greater and used VCTS mention during the
evening at the W AR sites where confidence declines a bit
regarding direct impact to the terminals.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  70  84  69 /  50  70  60  30
FSM   97  72  85  70 /  10  30  80  60
MLC   93  69  82  68 /  50  50  80  40
BVO   86  66  84  65 /  50  70  40  30
FYV   93  67  84  66 /  10  40  70  50
BYV   94  68  86  66 /  10  40  80  60
MKO   92  68  84  68 /  30  60  70  40
MIO   90  67  84  67 /  30  60  60  30
F10   91  67  83  67 /  60  60  70  40
HHW   92  69  81  68 /  20  40  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30