251
FXUS64 KTSA 071906
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Challenging forecast for the next 12 to 18 hours given the
persistent but decaying MCS now across eastern Oklahoma and moving
into western Arkansas. The biggest immediate concern is the wake
low that has developed on the northern end of the complex that
has recently led to tree damage and measured 60 mph wind gusts in
Rogers County. The likelihood is this will be fairly isolated so
a High Wind Warning will not be issued for now. Most measurements
across the area have been 40 mph or less, except for an earlier
measurement of 55 mph in Osage County.

Also in the near term, thunderstorms have begun to develop in
southeast Oklahoma ahead of the main line of storms. Conditions in
that part of the forecast area, as well as west central Arkansas,
remain favorable for strong to near severe storms, with a pocket
of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 25 to 30 kts of effective deep layer shear
sitting there. Overall, this development should move out by early
evening.

Thunderstorm development later this afternoon and into the evening
remains likely to our west, where some clearing after the morning
storms and destabilization has taken place. The bulk of that
development should remain to our west. Toward and after midnight,
an increase in thunderstorms farther to the east will be more
favored along the 850 front. This activity should spread southward
into early Monday morning, with only a low chance for severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The main concern for the extended portion of the forecast revolves
around the level of impacts as Beryl approaches and moves across
the ArkLaTex into Arkansas Monday and into Tuesday. The main
change to earlier thinking is an increase in the rainfall amounts
tied to a slightly westward shift in the forecast track of the
center. Increasing moisture well ahead of the center will begin to
spread and bring some heavy rain potential to southeast Oklahoma
as early as tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest rains should occur
Monday night and into Tuesday morning, including into northwest
and west central Arkansas, with a taper from southwest to
northeast into Tuesday evening. Given this track, widespread 3 to
5 inch amounts, with locally higher totals in the 7 to 8 inch
range, should be common east of a line from McAlester to Rogers.
If this trend continues, a Flood Watch may be necessary in future
shifts.

In addition to the heavy rain concerns, gusty winds can be
expected in association with the approach of the center,
especially in the higher terrain in southeast Oklahoma.

Following Beryl`s departure, the overall chance for showers and
thunderstorms will remain minimal through the end of the work week
and into the next weekend. Heat and humidity is also expected to
climb, especially by the weekend, as the western upper level ridge
builds to the east. Heat headlines are likely in the not-so-
distant future once again. Depending on how quickly the ridge
builds into the area, there may be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms into southeast Oklahoma late Saturday but with some
uncertainties regarding that transition, no mentionable POPs will
be included for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Confidence remains low in the evolution of current convection
along with the potential for redevelopment later this afternoon
and evening. Current complex of showers with embedded thunder
should move east of NE OK sites over the next hour with some
lingering showers making it to NW AR sites by mid afternoon.
Better organized thunder will move over KMLC through mid afternoon
with some reductions in VSBYs likely. Later this afternoon and
evening, additional thunderstorm development is possible first
across NE OK along a boundary before chances shift southeastward
through the night. Overall, confidence in widespread
redevelopment before 03Z has decreased as morning storms have
hung around. MVFR cigs are also expected to build in late tonight
into tomorrow as moisture from tropical storm Beryl moves this
way. More showers and possibly some thunder will be possible
during the day tomorrow, especially across AR sites associated
with the tropical system.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  83  68  82 /  60  60  30  30
FSM   73  82  69  80 /  30  90  70  70
MLC   70  81  66  81 /  30  90  50  40
BVO   66  83  65  83 /  60  50  30  20
FYV   68  80  65  76 /  50  80  70  70
BYV   69  80  65  74 /  40  80  70  80
MKO   69  82  66  81 /  50  60  50  40
MIO   67  84  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
F10   67  81  66  82 /  60  60  40  40
HHW   71  81  66  83 /  40  90  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04