506
FXUS64 KTSA 080529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface boundary that extends
from northwest Texas to near the Red River across southeast Oklahoma
may graze our extreme southeast Oklahoma Counties over the next
couple of hours. Any of these storms would have the potential to
to be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern.
Additional elevated scattered showers/storms are expected through the
night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front and
associated mid-level trof push into the region from the north and west.

Have made some adjustments to the forecast for tonight based on the
latest trends in short-term model guidance and observations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The main concern for the extended portion of the forecast revolves
around the level of impacts as Beryl approaches and moves across
the ArkLaTex into Arkansas Monday and into Tuesday. The main
change to earlier thinking is an increase in the rainfall amounts
tied to a slightly westward shift in the forecast track of the
center. Increasing moisture well ahead of the center will begin to
spread and bring some heavy rain potential to southeast Oklahoma
as early as tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest rains should occur
Monday night and into Tuesday morning, including into northwest
and west central Arkansas, with a taper from southwest to
northeast into Tuesday evening. Given this track, widespread 3 to
5 inch amounts, with locally higher totals in the 7 to 8 inch
range, should be common east of a line from McAlester to Rogers.
If this trend continues, a Flood Watch may be necessary in future
shifts.

In addition to the heavy rain concerns, gusty winds can be
expected in association with the approach of the center,
especially in the higher terrain in southeast Oklahoma.

Following Beryl`s departure, the overall chance for showers and
thunderstorms will remain minimal through the end of the work week
and into the next weekend. Heat and humidity is also expected to
climb, especially by the weekend, as the western upper level ridge
builds to the east. Heat headlines are likely in the not-so-
distant future once again. Depending on how quickly the ridge
builds into the area, there may be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms into southeast Oklahoma late Saturday but with some
uncertainties regarding that transition, no mentionable POPs will
be included for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for much of the night into
Monday morning. Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms
expected overnight across northeast OK and northwest AR, with
precip generally pushing more south and east during the day. By
this evening expect to see steadily increasing coverage of
showers, especially from southeast OK with ceilings trending
downward and more widespread flight impacts toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  83  66  91 /  30  30  10   0
FSM   69  80  66  91 /  70  70  10  10
MLC   66  81  64  90 /  50  40  10  10
BVO   65  83  63  91 /  30  20   0   0
FYV   65  76  61  88 /  70  70  20  10
BYV   65  74  61  86 /  70  80  20  10
MKO   66  81  64  90 /  50  40  10  10
MIO   66  81  62  89 /  40  40  10  10
F10   66  82  64  91 /  40  40  10  10
HHW   66  83  65  89 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14