955
FXUS64 KTSA 080743
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Tuesday morning)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A band of scattered storms, stretching from near Tulsa and
extending NE roughly along I-44, is occurring along a weak H85
front in advance of an approaching upper trough. This activity
should fade by early to mid morning, with some redevelopment
possible this afternoon across far NE OK as the boundary lifts
north.

Focus then shifts to our south with the approach of Beryl.
The system is being drawn north by the aforementioned upper
trough, which it will eventually merge with as the system recurves
to the northeast over the ArkLaTex and then thru central AR
tonight into Tuesday. Bands of thunderstorms will begin developing
across southeast OK and west-central AR by early afternoon and
will spread north thru the afternoon with gusty wind and locally
heavy rain potential. The right front quadrant of the system, an
area well known for increased tornadic potential in landfalling
tropical systems, is expected to stay just to the east of the
forecast area given the current forecast track. By tonight, a
swath of tropical rain (probably not much lightning at all) in
association with the core of Beryl will lift up into far SE OK and
NW AR, and then exit on Tuesday morning as the now remnant low of
Beryl moves away from the region. Wind gusts will pick up as well
tonight into Tuesday morning with the closest approach of the low
pressure, especially in the terrain of the Ouachitas, where gusts
to near advisory strength are possible.

Given the combination of today`s round of heavy rain producing
storms and the core rains of Beryl tonight into Tuesday morning,
widespread 2 to 3 inch rains are forecast across far SE OK up into
NW AR, with locally heavier amounts. With some potential for
flash flooding from these rains, along with coordination from
neighboring offices, a flood watch has been issued for this
afternoon thru midday Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The remnant low of Beryl will be moving away from the region by
Tuesday afternoon, and will be the lead in to a much quieter part
of the forecast. The general consensus of the models is that the
central CONUS trough will shift east and mid-level heights will
rise over Oklahoma and Arkansas as the western CONUS ridge shifts
east. It is worth noting that the 00Z runs of the EC and GFS are
not as pronounced with the ridging aloft, but we`ll see if this
is a trend. The consensus dry forecast with a warming trend back
into the upper 90s to near 100 by late in the week and into the
weekend will be maintained for now.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for much of the night into
Monday morning. Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms
expected overnight across northeast OK and northwest AR, with
precip generally pushing more south and east during the day. By
this evening expect to see steadily increasing coverage of
showers, especially from southeast OK with ceilings trending
downward and more widespread flight impacts toward the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  68  85  66 /  60  60  30  10
FSM   84  68  81  66 /  80  90  80  10
MLC   81  67  83  64 /  90  70  40  10
BVO   84  68  85  63 /  40  60  20   0
FYV   83  66  76  61 /  70  80  80  20
BYV   86  66  74  61 /  70  90  90  20
MKO   84  67  83  64 /  80  70  50  10
MIO   84  67  81  62 /  50  70  50  10
F10   82  67  83  64 /  80  60  40  10
HHW   81  68  82  65 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for OKZ049-053-072-074>076.

AR...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14