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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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277 FXUS64 KTSA 061520 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface ridging dominates the area through this evening. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions along with light winds will be the story through the afternoon hours. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most locations. Continued dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices down though for today, making for a relatively comfortable afternoon by July standards. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Longwave trough axis remains over the plains into the early part of next week at least, resulting in a more unsettled pattern with temperatures remaining a little below average. Some high plains convection later this afternoon is expected to remain to our northwest overnight, though some lingering activity may brush northern areas Sunday morning. More robust convection continues to be depicted later Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave rotates through the longwave trough into the plains. At this time the bulk of the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat still looks to remain to our west, but the exact evolution of this remains in question. Beryl is still expected to make landfall along the southern TX Gulf Coast Monday, with latest NHC guidance showing a slight northeast shift in the track. Consensus remains that the system will lift northeast, but may pass close enough to bring a heavy rainfall threat into far southeast OK and western AR by Tuesday. Beyond that the upper ridge is expected to remain to our west through the end of the week, with weak troughing over the plains. This should keep at least isolated storm chances through Friday with temperatues remaining near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period, aside from some light MVFR fog potential at the NE OK sites this morning. Sfc winds will remain below impactful levels. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 71 91 69 / 0 0 40 70 FSM 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 10 40 MLC 91 70 92 69 / 0 0 20 60 BVO 91 66 87 66 / 0 0 50 70 FYV 92 68 94 68 / 0 0 10 50 BYV 90 68 95 68 / 0 0 10 40 MKO 90 68 92 68 / 0 0 20 60 MIO 90 67 90 66 / 0 0 30 60 F10 90 68 92 66 / 0 0 30 70 HHW 90 70 92 69 / 0 0 20 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...30