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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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438 FXUS64 KTSA 061718 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface ridging dominates the area through this evening. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions along with light winds will be the story through the afternoon hours. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most locations. Continued dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices down though for today, making for a relatively comfortable afternoon by July standards. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Longwave trough axis remains over the plains into the early part of next week at least, resulting in a more unsettled pattern with temperatures remaining a little below average. Some high plains convection later this afternoon is expected to remain to our northwest overnight, though some lingering activity may brush northern areas Sunday morning. More robust convection continues to be depicted later Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave rotates through the longwave trough into the plains. At this time the bulk of the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat still looks to remain to our west, but the exact evolution of this remains in question. Beryl is still expected to make landfall along the southern TX Gulf Coast Monday, with latest NHC guidance showing a slight northeast shift in the track. Consensus remains that the system will lift northeast, but may pass close enough to bring a heavy rainfall threat into far southeast OK and western AR by Tuesday. Beyond that the upper ridge is expected to remain to our west through the end of the week, with weak troughing over the plains. This should keep at least isolated storm chances through Friday with temperatues remaining near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period for most sites. Mostly clear skies and light winds will dominate through this evening. A thunderstorm complex could approach northeast Oklahoma toward the end of the period with increasing mid to high cloud cover and storms possibly affecting KBVO before the end of the TAF period. At this time chances look to hold off at other NE OK sites until after this valid TAF period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 91 69 84 / 0 40 70 50 FSM 71 96 73 86 / 0 10 40 70 MLC 70 92 69 84 / 0 20 60 70 BVO 66 87 66 84 / 0 50 70 50 FYV 68 94 68 84 / 0 10 50 80 BYV 68 95 68 84 / 0 10 40 80 MKO 68 92 68 83 / 0 20 60 60 MIO 67 90 66 83 / 0 30 60 60 F10 68 92 66 83 / 0 30 70 60 HHW 70 92 69 83 / 0 20 50 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04