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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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465 FXUS64 KTSA 070540 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Current forecast for tonight is on track. Latest short-term guidance continues to keep the thunderstorm complex current over western Kansas to the west of the area overnight. Have only made a few minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight to better reflect the latest trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 An absolutely beautiful day is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with seasonal temperatures, dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s, light winds and plenty of sun. The nice weather will continue through much, if not all, of the overnight, with low temperatures a couple of degrees below seasonal normals. Expect an increase in cloudiness toward daybreak in areas northwest of I-44 as a thunderstorm complex approaches from western/central Kansas. The main source of forecast uncertainty tonight is whether the complex moves into the forecast area before or after daybreak. The bulk of the guidance points toward a daytime arrival, and as such, will keep the forecast dry through 12Z. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The aforementioned thunderstorm complex is expected to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning, likely in a declining state intensity-wise given the lower instability this far east. Areas along and north of I-44 have a medium to high chance to see showers and thunderstorms during the morning, although the chance of severe weather is low. Additional storms should develop during the afternoon and evening, again to the north and west of the area, and move through the area overnight. Higher instability positioned across the western half of Oklahoma and the location of the upper level support will favor areas just west of the forecast area for severe weather and the higher rainfall totals. Into the day Monday, the focus for additional thunderstorms should be across southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas given the moisture moving into that part of the area ahead of Beryl. That same area will remain the focus into mid week, as the remnants of Beryl move across the ArkLaTex. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible on the southeast fringes of the forecast area as the remnants move across, but the highest totals remain likely to stay just to the east. A period of dry weather should arrive by Wednesday night as Beryl is caught up in the upper level trough and carried northeastward away from the region. Low thunderstorm chances will continue at times late in the week and into the weekend until upper level ridging begins to build into the area next weekend. How quickly that occurs remains uncertain, but it does look like our break in the heat for much of this weekend and the upcoming work week will come to an end either next weekend or into the following work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A storm complex over NW OK/SW KS is expected to eventually spread east across NE OK during the mid-morning thru early afternoon hours, while gradually decaying. TEMPOs were maintained from previous forecast for potential MVFR conditions with the storms. PROB30s were maintained at the far NW AR sites for the afternoon, though the latest data suggests the morning activity should dissipate by the time they would arrive there. Outside of this, expect VFR to prevail at all sites thru much of the day on Sunday. By late afternoon storms will begin to fire along an advancing outflow/front near the NE OK terminals and spread east/south from there into the evening. Inserted TEMPO groups for the E OK sites where confidence is greater and used VCTS mention during the evening at the W AR sites where confidence declines a bit regarding direct impact to the terminals. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 68 84 69 / 50 70 60 30 FSM 96 73 88 70 / 10 50 60 60 MLC 93 69 84 68 / 20 60 60 40 BVO 85 65 83 65 / 60 80 50 30 FYV 93 68 86 66 / 0 50 70 50 BYV 94 68 85 66 / 0 50 70 60 MKO 92 68 83 68 / 20 50 60 40 MIO 90 67 83 67 / 20 60 50 30 F10 91 67 82 67 / 30 60 60 40 HHW 92 71 86 68 / 10 60 50 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...30