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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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520 FXUS64 KTSA 200149 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 849 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 849 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows broad mid/upper-level troughing present over much of the eastern CONUS with embedded shortwave troughs over the Mississippi River Valley and Northern/Central Plains. As of this writing, a complex of thunderstorms is already ongoing across west/central KS. This complex will need to be monitored through the night as it continues to advance southeastward into southern KS/northern OK. For what it`s worth, despite the approaching shortwave, CAMs have consistently suggested the complex loses its strength and dissolves as it push into the northwestern part of the forecast area around or just after sunrise Saturday. Regardless, mid/high level clouds will increase from northwest-to-southeast as the overnight/early morning hours progress. In summary, high pressure will continue to maintain mostly pleasant and tranquil conditions through the remainder of the night across eastern OK and northwest AR. Winds will remain light, turning more SE/ESE after midnight tonight. Expect another night of unseasonably cool temperatures, perhaps not as cool as last night though. In general, most locations will see overnight lows drop into the low-mid 60s. A few higher elevated locations in northwest AR and isolated spots in far northeast OK may drop into the upper 50s before sunrise Saturday. For the evening update, only made minor adjustments to the overnight low temperatures, specifically in far northeast OK and far northwest AR, lowering them a degree or two. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track and valid. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A few scattered showers from overnight complex to the northwest could move move into far northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning. Any storms will likely be weakening by this time as a relatively dry air- mass remains in place. Better precipitation chances are expected Saturday night into Sunday as initial mid level wave/upper jet streak moves through the region. Longwave trough will remain over the central/southern Plains with secondary disturbance/upper low approaching from the north Sunday night. Another round of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall totals through Monday will generally stay in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, although locally higher amounts are possible in a few locations. Modest warming trend will develop for the middle to latter part of the work next as upper ridging slowly builds in from the west. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far SE OK/NW AR, mainly in the higher terrain areas. Main upper high will remain over the desert Southwest, keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Few to scattered mid and high clouds should continue into the overnight hours across the CWA. Late tonight into Saturday morning cloud cover is expected to increase from the northwest as an area of low pressure sags southward into the Central Plains. A slight chance of precip could become possible for Northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning...or a possible outflow boundary moving into the region from ongoing convection in Northern Kansas. For now will hold of on mentioning in the TAFs due to uncertainties in coverage/impact to any one terminal. During the day Saturday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast. A slight chance of showers/storms will remain for Northeast Oklahoma during the day...with the greater chances just outside of this TAF period. Winds through the period should continue to be light/variable into Saturday with a shift more toward southerly winds during the day. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 65 88 69 / 0 0 20 40 FSM 89 65 89 71 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 88 65 89 69 / 0 0 10 30 BVO 87 59 85 66 / 0 0 20 50 FYV 85 57 86 66 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 83 59 86 66 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 90 64 89 69 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 84 60 84 67 / 0 0 10 40 F10 89 64 89 69 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 89 65 89 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...20