![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
783 FXUS64 KTSA 151533 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1033 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Current temps running a degree or two higher, while dew points a few degrees lower compared to this time yesterday. 12z sounding from OUN looks quite hot in the lower levels, and all of this data supports the hottest day we`ve seen thus far. As of right now the heat headlines appear to be good, but of course will continue to monitor temp and dew point trends through the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Another warm night will lead to one last hot day for a little while on Tuesday as temperatures again soar into the 100s for many locations. A frontal boundary will begin to work into the region Tuesday afternoon however as the upper ridge shifts westward, which could bring some increased cloud cover along with a chance for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon near the I-44 corridor. If storms do develop, strong to severe wind gusts will be possible given modest instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer aiding in downdraft enhancement. Latest guidance continues to show a faster progression of the frontal boundary through the area on Wednesday and clearing southeast Oklahoma Thursday morning. Thunderstorm chances will follow with the front from north to south on Wednesday. Have ended PoPs a little quicker than the NBM suggests owing to a faster progression of the front through southeast Oklahoma by Thursday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow the front, with below average highs expected through the end of the week. Northwest flow aloft remains planted over the Plains into early next week, allowing temps to stay seasonably mild through the period. Another system is slated to affect the area over the weekend, with more rain chances increasing by Sunday for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected with gusty winds from late morning through early evening. Low chance of high based convection into NE OK late tonight but no aviation impacts expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 102 82 101 78 / 0 0 30 20 FSM 100 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 98 78 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 103 78 98 73 / 0 10 30 30 FYV 97 76 95 73 / 0 0 10 20 BYV 99 77 96 73 / 0 0 20 30 MKO 98 78 98 75 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 99 79 98 73 / 0 10 20 30 F10 100 78 99 75 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-054-058- 059-063>065-068-069-072>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>057-060>062-066-067-070-071. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...07