383
FXUS64 KTSA 160249
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
949 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Surface pressure gradient over the area should once again result in a
light south wind maintaining itself much of the night. Expect some
mid cloud to develop over nern OK later tonight, which will also tend
to hold temps up some. Guidance continues to suggest some potential
for widely scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms late tonight
developing from this mid level cloud deck. Convection over far ern
CO/wrn KS also expected to move across Kansas tonight, with outflow
from that possibly reaching nern OK very late tonight. All in all,
ongoing forecast trending well, and reflects low chances of late
night high-based convection nern OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

One more hot day will occur Tuesday, and have issued a heat
advisory for the entire forecast area. Once again, parts of the
area may need to be upgraded to a warning, but concerns about the
extent of morning cloud cover and potential elevated convection
preclude a warning at this time. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening as a frontal boundary moves south into the area, with a
few severe storms possible across northwest Arkansas into
northeast Oklahoma. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather
threat.

Shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday and possibly into
Thursday in southern parts of the area as the frontal boundary
continues south across the area. Much cooler temperatures will
follow the passage of the front, with below normal temperatures
expected from Wednesday through the weekend into early next week.
Rain chances will increase again over the weekend into early next
week as upper level impulses rotate south around the main upper
trough that will reside near or just east of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

High level cloud cover is expected to increase across Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas overnight as convection across
Eastern Colorado spreads eastward through the night. There is a
chance that some of this precip could sag south to reach KBVO.
Thus...will add a Tempo group for variable winds/lower ceilings
from any out flow boundary. During the day Tuesday...scattered to
broken high clouds are forecast across the CWA along with breezy
south to southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front forecast to
reach Northeast Oklahoma near the end of the TAF period. Will add
Prob30 groups for timing and potential convection. VFR conditions
are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 101  75  88 /   0  20  30  30
FSM   79  99  78  92 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   78  98  76  92 /   0  10  20  40
BVO   78  99  71  86 /  20  20  40  40
FYV   76  96  73  87 /   0  20  30  40
BYV   77  96  72  88 /   0  30  30  50
MKO   78  99  74  89 /   0  20  20  40
MIO   79  97  72  85 /  20  30  40  40
F10   78 100  75  90 /   0  10  20  40
HHW   77  97  76  94 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20