547
FXUS64 KTSA 171123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Widespread showers and storms are ongoing early this morning with
the strongest storms along and north of the stationary frontal
boundary extending across NE OK into far NW AR. A broad fetch of
warm moist advection is ongoing across the region downstream from
the remnant MCV located over SW KS. Expect the ongoing showers and
storms to continue to expand eastward through the early morning
hours with the heaviest rains eventually moving into NW AR
supporting the continuation of the watch area. A brief lull in
precip coverage is expected by early afternoon, however additional
storms are likely as the aforementioned MCV will move nearer the
region and the cold front and/or composite outflow boundary acts
to focus new storms. Higher storm chances by mid afternoon will be
along and south of Interstate 40 with these storms continuing into
the evening and possible overnight hours as the sfc boundary makes
slow progress southward. A few strong to severe storms along with
locally heavy rains will remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into
Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast
area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday.
The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will
feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern
Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK
and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through
the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with
below normal temperatures will extend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms around the area currently should move
off by mid to late morning, leaving behind VFR conditions for this
afternoon. Some scattered MVFR ceilings are possible this morning
within the areas of precipitation. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible this afternoon and evening along a
frontal boundary. Best chances will be across SE OK and NW AR
sites. Lighting along with VSBY reductions due to heavy rainfall
will be the main impacts to any terminals through the period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  90  67 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   90  73  90  69 /  80  20  20   0
MLC   88  70  88  67 /  50  30  20   0
BVO   89  66  89  62 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   87  67  87  62 /  80  20  10   0
BYV   86  67  85  61 /  80  10  10   0
MKO   87  70  88  66 /  60  20  10   0
MIO   88  66  85  62 /  40   0   0   0
F10   88  69  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   93  71  85  69 /  50  50  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ069-072-076.

AR...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04