459
FXUS64 KTSA 171538
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024
MCV, currently located over north-central Oklahoma will drift
into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. This feature, coupled with
approaching cold front, should allow scattered storms to develop,
mainly south of I-40. A few marginally severe storms will be
possible across far southeast Oklahoma where instability will be
maximized, however high clouds will limit heating to some extent.
PWATs will remain near 2.00 inches along/south of front with
locally heavy rainfall likely with any of the stronger storms.
Current short term forecast generally on track but a few changes
possible into the afternoon as convective trends become more
certain.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and storm chances will linger across far SE OK into
Thursday before the cold front finally clears the local forecast
area. Dry and cooler weather expected Friday.
The weather pattern over the weekend into early next week will
feature persistent troughing aloft extending through the southern
Plains. Precip chances return as early as Saturday across NE OK
and expand area wide by Sunday as the trough axis settles through
the region. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms along with
below normal temperatures will extend through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms around the area currently should move
off by mid to late morning, leaving behind VFR conditions for this
afternoon. Some scattered MVFR ceilings are possible this morning
within the areas of precipitation. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible this afternoon and evening along a
frontal boundary. Best chances will be across SE OK and NW AR
sites. Lighting along with VSBY reductions due to heavy rainfall
will be the main impacts to any terminals through the period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  71  90  67 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   90  73  90  69 /  70  20  20   0
MLC   88  70  88  67 /  50  30  20   0
BVO   89  66  89  62 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   87  67  87  62 /  70  20  10   0
BYV   86  67  85  61 /  80  10  10   0
MKO   87  70  88  66 /  50  20  10   0
MIO   88  66  85  62 /  80   0   0   0
F10   88  69  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   93  71  85  69 /  50  50  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04