005
FXUS64 KTSA 180758
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Remnant MCV currently near the ArklaTex region is the near term
focus for aiding isolated to scattered showers and storms this
morning. It`s influence will wane through the day as it is pushed
southward by the advancing larger scale trough rotating through
the forecast area. General trend in short term guidance has been
for lesser precip coverage on the western side of the vort max and
this seems reasonable based on observed trends. Most locations
remain dry through the day with temps mild for mid July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Friday looks nice with a pleasantly cool morning and sunny skies
with below normal temps through the day. Dry weather likely
continues into Saturday with precip developing west of the local
forecast region. The pattern aloft will begin to feature a deeper
trough axis and weak upper low settling into the central /
southern Plains by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as this occurs with precip
chances increasing area wide Sunday into Monday. Temps will
continue to be below normal with widespread cloud cover and
expected precip coverage.

The trough axis will move slowly southeastward through mid week
with a gradual eastward focus for the higher precip chances. Below
normal temps continue through this time frame. Somewhat warmer
temps may build back across the region by late next week, but
likely not extreme as the upper ridge remains anchored across the
western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
very limited shower chances across SE OK and W AR through the
night. Scattered mid to high clouds and generally light
northeasterly will dominate the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  64  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   87  68  88  65 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   87  66  89  66 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   87  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   85  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  60  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  67  89  65 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04