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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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418 FXUS64 KTSA 011533 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1033 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Axis of high dew points centered over eastern OK this morning associated with remnant frontal boundary moving northward. AS such, hot and humid conditions spreading back north this afternoon with the most dangerous HI readings focused generally along and west of US 69 in eastern OK. Most of northwest AR should continue to see relatively lower dew points. For right now the current configuration of heat headlines should be good, though it is possible a few counties may eventually need to be added to the advisory. Isolated showers or storms remain possible within moist axis as well. No updates needed at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mid/upper-level ridging will strengthen and begin to shift eastward over the southeastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days will remain (mostly) dry with strong subsidence occurring aloft. Unseasonably hot and humid conditions will remain the center of focus Tuesday through Thursday, with heat headlines likely needed each day. Ridging begins to breakdown and weaken beginning Wednesday evening/night as a low-amplitude trough tries to push into the Plains. Medium-range forecast models show another frontal boundary pushing into the Central Plains on Wednesday, with guidance suggesting the boundary becomes stationary, remaining north of the forecast area Wednesday through most of Thursday. Lift and moisture pooling along the front may cause showers and thunderstorms to form Wednesday north of the forecast area. However, low PoPs (10-30%) were maintained along the KS/OK and AR/MO borders as a few storms/outflow boundaries may penetrate the northern-tier of the forecast area on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, but most locations are expected to remain hot and dry. A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur beginning late Thursday night through Friday as the cold front is forecast to advance southward through the forecast area. Although widespread severe chances are not high, storms that form with the front Thursday night into Friday may be strong or marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may also occur with the storms. With that said, there remains uncertainty with strength and position of the cold at this time and adjustments to the forecast are likely over the next few days. If the forecast verifies, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal average Friday and Saturday, with ridging building back in by Sunday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Forecast remains on track this morning. Frontal boundary is starting to lift north and will become diffuse this afternoon with south winds developing. Upper ridge will remain over the region and although an isolated shower/thunderstorm will be possible, overall precip coverage still appears too low to include at this time. Scattered mid/high clouds will persist across NE OK/NW AR with a few afternoon CU possible elsewhere. VFR conditions are generally expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 80 100 81 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 94 74 98 78 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 97 77 98 78 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 95 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 92 71 95 76 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 90 69 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 93 76 97 78 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 93 74 97 78 / 20 0 0 10 F10 95 77 98 78 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 94 76 97 78 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058- 062-068-072-076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...12