718
FXUS64 KTSA 050233
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
933 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Loss of daytime heating has allowed storms across the
area to weaken over the last hour or so but a few strong storms
will remain possible over the next few hours. Scattered
coverage will likely continue into the overnight hours along and
ahead of the cold front as it pushes further south into SE OK
and WC AR. Made a few adjustments to PoPs and sky cover based on
latest trends through 06z. PoPs in the 06z-12z time period pretty
much will be left as is, but did make a few tweaks to sky cover.
Temperatures in the overnight period look reasonable and will not
adjust at this time. Remaining first period elements will be left as
they are.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Much more pleasant conditions are expected to persist from
tomorrow well into next week in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal
passage, with temperatures nearer to seasonal normals and lower
dew points. Showers and thunderstorms should linger to some extent
post-daybreak tomorrow to the south of I-40, with a likelihood of
little to no severe weather potential remaining. Dry weather
should extend from tomorrow night through Saturday night, but the
dry period will likely be short lived, given persistent troughing
expected to be in the vicinity allowing for multiple disturbances
to move through the area. In addition, moisture should steadily
climb, especially in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
through next week. The combination of the increased moisture and
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through at least mid week. Sunday night and into
Monday remains the most likely time frame for extensive
thunderstorms from MCS activity, including some severe weather
and heavy rain/flooding potential, although those details remain
somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect any of the TAF
sites this evening into the early overnight hours as a cold front
sags slowly south across the area. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of storm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  66  93 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   75  92  68  94 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   72  88  65  92 /  70  30   0  10
BVO   65  88  61  92 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   69  88  62  92 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   69  86  62  90 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   70  87  65  90 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   66  85  63  90 /  70   0   0   0
F10   70  86  65  90 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   73  87  68  89 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05