714
FXUS63 KTOP 062323
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms possible late this afternoon through the evening
mainly over north central into portions of northeastern Kansas -
damaging wind the primary threat with hail also a concern.

- Heavy rainfall possible Sunday morning through Sunday night as
another storm system moves through the area.

- Trending drier after Monday and warming up into next weekend into
the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The current UA pattern across the CONUS features a broad cyclonic
flow regime from the New England region curving down into the
central Plains back up into western Canada. A sharp ridge is in
place along the Pacific coastline with a strong dome of high
pressure over the California and northern Baja regions. Meanwhile,
tropical moisture is over the deep south with Tropical Storm Beryl
spinning over the western Gulf of Mexico. An area of surface low
pressure has been deepening into this afternoon over southwestern
Nebraska with at least one intense supercell along an associated
warm frontal boundary extending generally along I-80 through
Nebraska. The associated cold front extends through northwestern
Kansas.

This afternoon through this evening, a weak upper mid level
shortwave continues to work across Nebraska with the best forcing
for ascent mostly to the north of the local area. This should keep
the highest chances for storms to remain through Nebraska along the
warm front. Can`t rule out a storm or two remaining severe as they
move into the area and tend to weaken overall due to a lack of steep
midlevel lapse rates which appear to drop off significantly further
away from the shortwave. Additionally, a drier profile is in place
heading from KLBF to the southeast into KTOP per UA analysis. The
LLJ doesn`t intensify until this evening which will be better
focused over southwestern into portions of central Kansas where the
strongest convergence takes place and thus the better quality moist
advection in the low levels which should fuel better storm potential
generally southwest of the area. Thus, have lowered POPs overall
tonight to focus over north central and northeastern areas which
appear to have about a 30 percent chance for storms if the current
storms over south central Nebraska and perhaps western Kansas can
develop sufficient cold pools to see further development along the
outflow boundaries from the parent storms. Confidence is too low to
raise POPs too far into the area for this evening. Storms that do
move into the area this afternoon/evening appear to pose mostly a
damaging wind threat but can`t rule out hail as well with freezing
level heights around 11kft.

Into Sunday morning, could see broader precip shield develop in
advance of another shortwave digging into western KS and translating
east through the day. Best chances for heavy rainfall could still be
just into central and east central areas as theta-e advection
increases in advance of the shortwave. Could see a few areas
experience flooding concerns with with convective influences and PW
values around 2 inches and flash flood guidance for 1-3hr rainfall
rates around 2-3 inches.

The overall pattern begins to change into Tuesday with the western
ridge broadening and the Westerlies retreating to the north again.
This will allow for a drying trend to take shape with warming
temperatures into the 90s by Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR anticipated at terminals as winds become light from the
southwest, gradually veering to the west by mid afternoon. Main
challenge is coverage of SHRA and isolated TS tomorrow with
some of the latest guidance being more sparse in coverage
compared to earlier runs. While confidence is not high enough
for predominant RA, opted to add VCSH aft 15Z as lower stratus
increases from the west.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto